Do EAPs work? A complex answer to a simple question.

The main purpose of this paper is to stimulate debate about what effectiveness means in the context of EAPs by challenging some widespread and taken-for-granted assumptions about the benefits of counselling for individual and organizational performance. I also hope to stimulate debate by suggesting some possible costs and benefits of EAPs which it appears have not yet been systematically considered or assessed. I will argue that it is only by looking for more complex answers to the question of whether EAPs work that serious and significant progress can be made in the design and delivery of EAPs. This is not an attempt to argue that counselling does not 'work', but rather an attempt to unpack what 'work' means - particularly in relation to the wider claims of EAPs

Blockade

Poetry by Rob B. Budd

The lifetime of excess atmospheric carbon dioxide

We explore the effects of a changing terrestrial biosphere on the atmospheric residence time of CO2 using three simple ocean carbon cycle models and a model of global terrestrial carbon cycling. We find differences in model behavior associated with the assumption of an active terrestrial biosphere (forest regrowth) and significant differences if we assume a donor-dependent flux from the atmosphere to the terrestrial component (e.g., a hypothetical terrestrial fertilization flux). To avoid numerical difficulties associated with treating the atmospheric CO2 decay (relaxation) curve as being well approximated by a weighted sum of exponential functions, we define the single half-life as the time it takes for a model atmosphere to relax from its present-day value half way to its equilibrium pCO2 value. This scenario-based approach also avoids the use of unit pulse (Dirac Delta) functions which can prove troublesome or unrealistic in the context of a terrestrial fertilization assumption. We also discuss some of the numerical problems associated with a conventional lifetime calculation which is based on an exponential model. We connect our analysis of the residence time of CO2 and the concept of single half-life to the residence time calculations which are based on using weighted sums of exponentials. We note that the single half-life concept focuses upon the early decline of CO2under a cutoff/decay scenario. If one assumes a terrestrial biosphere with a fertilization flux, then our best estimate is that the single half-life for excess CO2 lies within the range of 19 to 49 years, with a reasonable average being 31 years. If we assume only regrowth, then the average value for the single half-life for excess CO2 increases to 72 years, and if we remove the terrestrial component completely, then it increases further to 92 years

Multi-Product Crops for Agricultural and Energy Production – an AGE Analysis for Poland

By-products from agriculture and forestry can contribute to production of clean and cheap (bio)electricity. To assess the role of such multi-product crops in the response to climate policies, we present an applied general equilibrium model with special attention to biomass and multi-product crops for Poland. The potential to boost production of bioelectricity through the use of multi-product crops turns out to be limited to only 2-3% of total electricity production. Further expansion of the bioelectricity sector will have to be based on biomass crops explicitly grown for energy purposes. The competition between agriculture and biomass for scarce land remains limited, given the availability of relatively poor land types and substitution possibilities. The importance of indirect effects illustrates that the AGE framework is appropriate.Applied general equilibrium (AGE), Biomass, Energy policy, Renewable energy

The Timing of National Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions in the Presence of Other Environmental Policies

This paper shows in an empirical context that substantial cost reductions can be achieved in the implementation of Dutch national climate policy by (i) targeting the policy at the stock of greenhouse gases, thus allowing polluters flexibility in their timing of emission reductions; and (ii) integrating climate policy with other policies, thereby optimising the restructuring of the economy needed to achieve environmental policy targets. A dynamic applied general equilibrium model with bottom-up information on abatement techniques is used to show that the optimal timing of GHG emission reductions tends to follow the timing for the other environmental themes with an additional emphasis on emission reductions in the later periods. The optimal mix of technical measures and economic restructuring as source of emission reductions is affected by the strictness of environmental policy targets for all themes and hence can only be derived from an integrated analysis of these policies.Economic growth, Applied general equilibrium model, Climate change, Environmental policy

Another Look at Measures of Forecast Accuracy

We discuss and compare measures of accuracy of univariate time series forecasts. The methods used in the M-competition and the M3-competition, and many of the measures recommended by previous authors on this topic, are found to be inadequate, and many of them are degenerate in commonly occurring situations. Instead, we propose that the mean absolute scaled error become the standard measure for comparing forecast accuracy across multiple time series.Forecast accuracy, Forecast evaluation, Forecast error measures, M-competition, Mean absolute scaled error.

How Harmful are Adaptation Restrictions

The dominant assumption in economic models of climate policy remains that adaptation will be implemented in an optimal manner. There are, however, several reasons why optimal levels of adaptation may not be attainable. This paper investigates the effects of suboptimal levels of adaptation, i.e. adaptation restrictions, on the composition and level of climate change costs and on welfare. Several adaptation restrictions are identified and then simulated in a revised DICE model, extended with adaptation (AD-DICE). We find that especially substantial over-investment in adaptation can be very harmful due to sharply increasing marginal adaptation costs. Furthermore the potential of mitigation to offset suboptimal adaptation is investigated. When adaptation is not possible at extreme levels of climate change, it is cost-effective to use more stringent mitigation policies in order to keep climate change limited, thereby making adaptation possible. Furthermore not adjusting the optimal level of mitigation to these adaptation restrictions may double the costs of adaptation restrictions, and thus in general it is very harmful to ignore existing restrictions on adaptation when devising (efficient) climate policies.Integrated Assessment Modelling, Adaptation, Climate Change

Energy Biased Technical Change: A CGE Analysis

This paper studies energy bias in technical change. For this purpose, we develop a computable general equilibrium model that builds on endogenous growth models. The model explicitly captures links between energy, the rate and direction of technical change, and the economy. We derive the equilibrium determinants of biased technical change and show the importance of feedback in technical change, substitution possibilities between final goods, and generalequilibrium effects for the equilibrium bias. If the feedback effect is strong, or the substitution elasticity large, or both, our model tends to a corner solution in which only technologies are developed that are appropriate for production of non-energy intensive goods. --computable general-equilibrium models,endogenous technical change,energy,environment

The Role of the Dielectric Barrier in Narrow Biological Channels: a Novel Composite Approach to Modeling Single-channel Currents

A composite continuum theory for calculating ion current through a protein channel of known structure is proposed, which incorporates information about the channel dynamics. The approach is utilized to predict current through the Gramicidin A ion channel, a narrow pore in which the applicability of conventional continuum theories is questionable. The proposed approach utilizes a modified version of Poisson-Nernst-Planck (PNP) theory, termed Potential-of-Mean-Force-Poisson-Nernst-Planck theory (PMFPNP), to compute ion currents. As in standard PNP, ion permeation is modeled as a continuum drift-diffusion process in a self-consistent electrostatic potential. In PMFPNP, however, information about the dynamic relaxation of the protein and the surrounding medium is incorporated into the model of ion permeation by including the free energy of inserting a single ion into the channel, i.e., the potential of mean force along the permeation pathway. In this way the dynamic flexibility of the channel environment is approximately accounted for. The PMF profile of the ion along the Gramicidin A channel is obtained by combining an equilibrium molecular dynamics (MD) simulation that samples dynamic protein configurations when an ion resides at a particular location in the channel with a continuum electrostatics calculation of the free energy. The diffusion coefficient of a potassium ion within the channel is also calculated using the MD trajectory. Therefore, except for a reasonable choice of dielectric constants, no direct fitting parameters enter into this model. The results of our study reveal that the channel response to the permeating ion produces significant electrostatic stabilization of the ion inside the channel. The dielectric self-energy of the ion remains essentially unchanged in the course of the MD simulation, indicating that no substantial changes in the protein geometry occur as the ion passes through it. Also, the model accounts for the experimentally observed saturation of ion current with increase of the electrolyte concentration, in contrast to the predictions of standard PNP theory