Dinámicas espaciales y modelo de gestión del proyecto Ciudad del Conocimiento Yachay

Las Science City surgen como espacios territoriales que conjugan sinergias virtuosas hacia una Economía del Conocimiento. Durante los últimos años, Ecuador generó la iniciativa Ciudad del Conocimiento Yachay, la cual se presentó ante la comunidad nacional e internacional como un ecosistema que busca potenciar los emprendimientos de base tecnológica y negocios intensivos en conocimiento (Yachay E.P., s.f.). Es así que para el presente estudio se define como problemática: la limitada experiencia local y regional en la planificación e implementación de Ciudades del Conocimiento, así como la inestabilidad económica y política del país. En este sentido, surge la siguiente interrogante: ¿cuáles son las dinámicas espaciales y el modelo de gestión incluidos en la planificación e implementación de Yachay? Para esto, se identificaron las variables de las dinámicas espaciales y el modelo de gestión de varios PCTIs exitosos, que se han desarrollado en espacios del conocimiento, similares a Yachay. Las variables de estudio son: emplazamiento, conectividad, uso del suelo y modelo de gestión. Esta investigación tiene como objetivo identificar y analizar las variables de las dinámicas espaciales y el modelo de gestión definidos para Yachay, en las fases de planificación e implementación. Metodológicamente la investigación siguió el paradigma cualitativo. Tomó como muestra a cuatro actores claves, a los cuales se les aplicó la técnica de la entrevista semiestructurada. Los resultados más relevantes son: cambio en el rol de la Cabecera Cantonal generado por el emplazamiento de Yachay, fortalecimiento de la red vial asociado a la conectividad y cambio del uso de suelo (de agroproductivo a urbanizable). En cuanto al modelo de gestión (cuádruple hélice), ejecutado por la Empresa Pública Yachay E.P, en los últimos meses se han generado discrepancias entre la Universidad de Investigación de Tecnología Experimental y Yachay E.P., lo cual hace cuestionar: ¿si el modelo de gestión actual debe mantenerse o evolucionar junto con la implementación de la ciudad y sus habitantes

Spatiotemporal clustering, climate periodicity, and social-ecological risk factors for dengue during an outbreak in Machala, Ecuador, in 2010

Background: Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is a rapidly emerging public health problem in Ecuador and throughout the tropics. However, we have a limited understanding of the disease transmission dynamics in these regions. Previous studies in southern coastal Ecuador have demonstrated the potential to develop a dengue early warning system (EWS) that incorporates climate and non-climate information. The objective of this study was to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics and climatic and social-ecological risk factors associated with the largest dengue epidemic to date in Machala, Ecuador, to inform the development of a dengue EWS. Methods: The following data from Machala were included in analyses: neighborhood-level georeferenced dengue cases, national census data, and entomological surveillance data from 2010; and time series of weekly dengue cases (aggregated to the city-level) and meteorological data from 2003 to 2012. We applied LISA and Moran’s I to analyze the spatial distribution of the 2010 dengue cases, and developed multivariate logistic regression models through a multi-model selection process to identify census variables and entomological covariates associated with the presence of dengue at the neighborhood level. Using data aggregated at the city-level, we conducted a time-series (wavelet) analysis of weekly climate and dengue incidence (2003-2012) to identify significant time periods (e.g., annual, biannual) when climate co-varied with dengue, and to describe the climate conditions associated with the 2010 outbreak. Results: We found significant hotspots of dengue transmission near the center of Machala. The best-fit model to predict the presence of dengue included older age and female gender of the head of the household, greater access to piped water in the home, poor housing condition, and less distance to the central hospital. Wavelet analyses revealed that dengue transmission co-varied with rainfall and minimum temperature at annual and biannual cycles, and we found that anomalously high rainfall and temperatures were associated with the 2010 outbreak. Conclusions: Our findings highlight the importance of geospatial information in dengue surveillance and the potential to develop a climate-driven spatiotemporal prediction model to inform disease prevention and control interventions. This study provides an operational methodological framework that can be applied to understand the drivers of local dengue risk

The Social and Spatial Ecology of Dengue Presence and Burden during an Outbreak in Guayaquil, Ecuador, 2012

Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne arbovirus, is a major public health concern in Ecuador. In this study, we aimed to describe the spatial distribution of dengue risk and identify local social-ecological factors associated with an outbreak of dengue fever in the city of Guayaquil, Ecuador. We examined georeferenced dengue cases (n = 4248) and block-level census data variables to identify social-ecological risk factors associated with the presence/absence and burden of dengue in Guayaquil in 2012. Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), specifically Anselin’s Local Moran’s I, and Moran’s I tests were used to locate hotspots of dengue transmission, and multimodel selection was used to identify covariates associated with dengue presence and burden at the census block level. We identified significant dengue transmission hotspots near the North Central and Southern portions of Guayaquil. Significant risk factors for presence of dengue included poor housing conditions, access to paved roads, and receipt of remittances. Counterintuitive positive correlations with dengue presence were observed with several municipal services such as garbage collection and access to piped water. Risk factors for increased burden of dengue included poor housing conditions, garbage collection, receipt of remittances, and sharing a property with more than one household. Social factors such as education and household demographics were negatively correlated with increased dengue burden. These findings elucidate underlying differences with dengue presence versus burden, and suggest that vulnerability and risk maps could be developed to inform dengue prevention and control; this is information that is also relevant for emerging epidemics of chikungunya and Zika viruses