Interactive confidence test scoring and interpretation

(Hogarth, 1975) . When a subject is asked to respond to a test item by expressing his personal probability or preference for each of the options, his choice of probabilities is based on (I) his state of information and (2) his degree of confidence in that information

Spatial and temporal mapping of de novo mutations in schizophrenia to a fetal prefrontal cortical network.

Genes disrupted in schizophrenia may be revealed by de novo mutations in affected persons from otherwise healthy families. Furthermore, during normal brain development, genes are expressed in patterns specific to developmental stage and neuroanatomical structure. We identified de novo mutations in persons with schizophrenia and then mapped the responsible genes onto transcriptome profiles of normal human brain tissues from age 13 weeks gestation to adulthood. In the dorsolateral and ventrolateral prefrontal cortex during fetal development, genes harboring damaging de novo mutations in schizophrenia formed a network significantly enriched for transcriptional coexpression and protein interaction. The 50 genes in the network function in neuronal migration, synaptic transmission, signaling, transcriptional regulation, and transport. These results suggest that disruptions of fetal prefrontal cortical neurogenesis are critical to the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. These results also support the feasibility of integrating genomic and transcriptome analyses to map critical neurodevelopmental processes in time and space in the brain

Assessing the Role of Microfinance in Fostering Adaptation to Climate Change

Much of the current policy debate on adaptation to climate change has focussed on estimation of adaptation costs, ways to raise and to scale-up funding for adaptation, and the design of the international institutional architecture for adaptation financing. There is however little or no emphasis so far on actual delivery mechanisms to channel these resources at the sub-national level, particularly to target the poor who are also often the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. It is in this context that microfinance merits a closer look. This paper offers the first empirical assessment of the linkages between microfinance supported activities and adaptation to climate change. Specifically, the lending portfolios of the 22 leading microfinance institutions in two climate vulnerable countries - Bangladesh and Nepal - are analysed to assess the synergies and potential conflicts between microfinance and adaptation. The two countries had also been previously examined as part of an earlier OECD report on the links between macro-level Official Development Assistance and adaptation. This analysis provides a complementary 'bottom-up' perspective on financing for adaptation. Insights from this analysis also have implications for OECD countries. This is because microfinance is also being increasingly tapped to reduce the vulnerability of the poor in domestic OECD contexts as well and may therefore have the potential to contribute to adaptation. The paper identifies areas of opportunity where microfinance could be harnessed to play a greater role in fostering adaptation, as well as its limitations in this context. It also explores the linkage between the top-down macro-financing for adaptation through international financial mechanisms and the bottom-up activities that can be implemented through microfinance

Pathologic Studies on Suspect Animal and Human Cases of Rift Valley Fever from an Outbreak in Eastern Africa, 2006–2007

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an important viral zoonotic disease in Africa with periodic outbreaks associated with severe disease, death, and economic hardship. During the 2006–2007 outbreaks in Eastern Africa, postmortem and necropsy tissue samples from 14 animals and 20 humans clinically suspected of RVF were studied with histopathologic evaluation and immunohistochemical (IHC) assays. Six animal and 11 human samples had IHC evidence of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) antigens. We found that extensive hepatocellular necrosis without prominent inflammatory cell infiltrates is the most distinctive histopathologic change in liver tissues infected with RVFV. Pathologic studies on postmortem tissue samples can help establish the diagnosis of RVF, differentiating from endemic diseases with clinical manifestations similar to RVF, such as malaria, leptospirosis, or yellow fever