New renewable electricity capacity under uncertainty: The potential in Norway

Uncertainty affecting project values makes investors hesitate to build new capacity unless profitability is significant. When analysing the potential for new renewable power system capacity in a region, it is therefore necessary to properly capture both uncertainty effects and decision-making behaviour of investors. Important stochastic factors typically include wholesale electricity prices and certificate prices. We calculate trigger levels for the sum of these factors, and compare these with the current long-term contract prices to estimate the potential for new renewable electricity capacity. We take into account the cost and technical potential of small hydro and wind in Norway, the number of prenotifications, concession applications and grants, and the capacity targets of subsidising governmental bodies. With an electricity certificate policy target of 41 TWh per year of new renewables for Sweden and Norway combined until 2016, we estimate that 12 TWh wind power and 6.2 TWh hydropower will be built in Norway. Due to the option value of waiting, most of this capacity will come after 2010.Finance, Hydroelectric power generation, Power system planning, Stochastic processes, Uncertainty, Wind energy

What kind of welfare state is emerging in China?

China is joining the group of countries that have reasonably comprehensive systems of social protection in place. In 2010, the National People´s Congress adopted the first national Social Insurance Law, representing the culmination of a process of radical social reform. The question this paper asks is: what kind of welfare regime is being built in the People´s Republic of China? China has been politically unique. It is one of only five remaining communist states, the others being Cuba, Laos, the Democratic People´s Republic of Korea and Vietnam, and the only one (with some qualification for Vietnam) that has been economically successful. The characteristics of a communist state include centralized power in the hands of a party élite and that this élite is presumably motivated, to varying degrees, by some kind of socialist ideology of statism and social justice. While maintaining its political uniqueness, China has shed its economic uniqueness. With the reform and opening up that started in 1978, it turned its back on planned economy isolationism and has adopted an open socialist market economy. In considering what kind of welfare state is emerging in China, the paper looks at two hypotheses: is China producing a welfare state of its own kind, possibly a "socialist" welfare state? Or, if it is reproducing a conventional welfare state, what kind of previous experience elsewhere is it replicating

Book review

Book review of the following work: Péter Siptár - Miklós Törkenczy: The phonology of  Hungarian. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2000, 319 pp

Evaluation of a Participatory Ergonomics Intervention in Small Commercial Construction Firms

BACKGROUND: Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSD) among construction workers remain high. Participatory ergonomics (PE) interventions that engage workers and employers in reducing work injury risks have shown mixed results. METHODS: Eight-six workers from seven contractors participated in a PE program. A logic model guided the process evaluation and summative evaluation of short term and intermediate impacts and long term outcomes from surveys and field records. RESULTS: Process measures showed good delivery of training, high worker engagement, and low contractor participation. Workers’ knowledge improved and workers reported changes to work practices and tools used; contractor provision of appropriate equipment was low (33%). No changes were seen in symptoms or reported physical effort. CONCLUSIONS: The PE program produced many worker-identified ergonomic solutions, but lacked needed support from contractors. Future interventions should engage higher levels of the construction organizational system to improve contractor involvement for reducing WMSD

Increased mortality in schizophrenia due to cardiovascular disease - a non-systematic review of epidemiology, possible causes and interventions

Background: Schizophrenia is among the major causes of disability worldwide and the mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD) is significantly elevated. There is a growing concern that this health challenge is not fully understood and efficiently addressed. Methods: Non-systematic review using searches in PubMed on relevant topics as well as selection of references based on the authors’ experience from clinical work and research in the field. Results: In most countries, the standardized mortality rate in schizophrenia is about 2.5, leading to a reduction in life expectancy between 15 and 20 years. A major contributor of the increased mortality is due to CVD, with CVD mortality ranging from 40 to 50% in most studies. Important causal factors are related to lifestyle, including poor diet, lack of physical activity, smoking, and substance abuse. Recent findings suggest that there are overlapping pathophysiology and genetics between schizophrenia and CVD-risk factors, further increasing the liability to CVD in schizophrenia. Many pharmacological agents used for treating psychotic disorders have side effects augmenting CVD risk. Although several CVD-risk factors can be effectively prevented and treated, the provision of somatic health services to people with schizophrenia seems inadequate. Further, there is a sparseness of studies investigating the effects of lifestyle interventions in schizophrenia, and there is little knowledge about effective programs targeting physical health in this population. Discussion: The risk for CVD and CVD-related deaths in people with schizophrenia is increased, but the underlying mechanisms are not fully known. Coordinated interventions in different health care settings could probably reduce the risk. There is an urgent need to develop and implement effective programs to increase life expectancy in schizophrenia, and we argue that mental health workers should be more involved in this important task

Three perspectives on the mismatch between measures of material poverty

The two most prominent measures of material poverty within contemporary European poverty analysis are low income and material deprivation. However, it is by now well-known that these measures identify substantially different people as being poor. In this research note, I seek to demonstrate that there are at least three ways to understand the mismatch between low income and material deprivation, relating to three different forms of identification: identifying poor households, identifying groups at risk of poverty and identifying trends in material poverty over time. Drawing on data from the British Household Panel Survey, I show that while low income and material deprivation identify very different households as being poor, and display distinct trends over time, in many cases they identify the same groups at being at risk of material poverty

Can Inequality Be Reformed?

Three limitations in standard method measurement of income redistribution are considered: (1) redistribution is seen as a matter of global rather than marginal effects, (2) structural effects on the distribution of factor income are not accounted for, & (3) cross-section & life-cycle effects are conflated. Evidence from recent research is introduced, & it is argued that standard method results are reasonably robust in spite of limitations in the methodology. A positive association in advanced industrial companies between tax/transfer policy & income inequality is contended to be a firmly established conclusion, which suggests that if government wants to modify income inequality, it has a tool for so doing in tax & transfer policy, & if it should want to reshape transfers or taxes for other reasons, it must expect distributional consequences