426 research outputs found
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Probabilistic solar wind and geomagnetic forecasting using an analogue ensemble or "Similar Day" approach
Effective space-weather prediction and mitigation requires accurate forecasting of near-Earth solar-wind conditions. Numerical magnetohydrodynamic models of the solar wind, driven by remote solar observations, are gaining skill at forecasting the large-scale solar-wind features that give rise to near-Earth variations over days and weeks. There remains a need for accurate short-term (hours to days) solar-wind forecasts, however. In this study we investigate the analogue ensemble (AnEn), or âsimilar dayâ, approach that was developed for atmospheric weather forecasting. The central premise of the AnEn is that past variations that are analogous or similar to current conditions can be used to provide a good estimate of future variations. By considering an ensemble of past analogues, the AnEn forecast is inherently probabilistic and provides a measure of the forecast uncertainty. We show that forecasts of solar-wind speed can be improved by considering both speed and density when determining past analogues, whereas forecasts of the out-of-ecliptic magnetic field [ BNBN ] are improved by also considering the in-ecliptic magnetic-field components. In general, the best forecasts are found by considering only the previous 6âââ12 hours of observations. Using these parameters, the AnEn provides a valuable probabilistic forecast for solar-wind speed, density, and in-ecliptic magnetic field over lead times from a few hours to around four days. For BNBN , which is central to space-weather disturbance, the AnEn only provides a valuable forecast out to around six to seven hours. As the inherent predictability of this parameter is low, this is still likely a marked improvement over other forecast methods. We also investigate the use of the AnEn in forecasting geomagnetic indices Dst and Kp. The AnEn provides a valuable probabilistic forecast of both indices out to around four days. We outline a number of future improvements to AnEn forecasts of near-Earth solar-wind and geomagnetic conditions
Measurement of the B-Meson Inclusive Semileptonic Branching Fraction and Electron-Energy Moments
We report a new measurement of the B-meson semileptonic decay momentum
spectrum that has been made with a sample of 9.4/fb of electron-positron
annihilation data collected with the CLEO II detector at the Y(4S) resonance.
Electrons from primary semileptonic decays and secondary charm decays were
separated by using charge and angular correlations in Y(4S) events with a
high-momentum lepton and an additional electron. We determined the semileptonic
branching fraction to be (10.91 +- 0.09 +- 0.24)% from the normalization of the
electron-energy spectrum. We also measured the moments of the electron energy
spectrum with minimum energies from 0.6 GeV to 1.5 GeV.Comment: 36 pages postscript, als available through
http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS/, Submitted to PRD (back-to-back with
preceding preprint hep-ex/0403052
Measurement of the branching fraction for
We have studied the leptonic decay of the resonance into tau
pairs using the CLEO II detector. A clean sample of tau pair events is
identified via events containing two charged particles where exactly one of the
particles is an identified electron. We find . The result is consistent with
expectations from lepton universality.Comment: 9 pages, RevTeX, two Postscript figures available upon request, CLNS
94/1297, CLEO 94-20 (submitted to Physics Letters B
Lifetime Differences, direct CP Violation and Partial Widths in D0 Meson Decays to K+K- and pi+pi-
We describe several measurements using the decays D0->K+K- and pi+pi-. We
find the ratio of partial widths, Gamma(D0->K+K-)/Gamma(D0->pi+pi-), to be
2.96+/-0.16+/-0.15, where the first error is statistical and the second is
systematic. We observe no evidence for direct CP violation, obtaining A_CP(KK)
= (0.0+/-2.2+/-0.8)% and A_CP(pipi = (1.9+/-3.2+/-0.8)%. In the limit of no CP
violation we measure the mixing parameter y_CP = -0.012+/-0.025+/-0.014 by
measuring the lifetime difference between D0->K+ K- or pi+pi- and the CP
neutral state, D0->K-pi+. We see no evidence for mixing.Comment: 14 pages postscript, also available through
http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, submitted to PRD, Rapid Communicatio
Observation of a Narrow Resonance of Mass 2.46 GeV/c^2 Decaying to D_s^*+ pi^0 and Confirmation of the D_sJ^* (2317) State
Using 13.5 inverse fb of e+e- annihilation data collected with the CLEO II
detector we have observed a narrow resonance in the Ds*+pi0 final state, with a
mass near 2.46 GeV. The search for such a state was motivated by the recent
discovery by the BaBar Collaboration of a narrow state at 2.32 GeV, the
DsJ*(2317)+ that decays to Ds+pi0. Reconstructing the Ds+pi0 and Ds*+pi0 final
states in CLEO data, we observe peaks in both of the corresponding
reconstructed mass difference distributions, dM(Dspi0)=M(Dspi0)-M(Ds) and
dM(Ds*pi0)=M(Ds*pi0)-M(Ds*), both of them at values near 350 MeV. We interpret
these peaks as signatures of two distinct states, the DsJ*(2317)+ plus a new
state, designated as the DsJ(2463)+. Because of the similar dM values, each of
these states represents a source of background for the other if photons are
lost, ignored or added. A quantitative accounting of these reflections confirms
that both states exist. We have measured the mean mass differences
= 350.0 +/- 1.2 [stat] +/- 1.0 [syst] MeV for the DsJ*(2317) state, and
= 351.2 +/- 1.7 [stat] +/- 1.0 [syst] MeV for the new DsJ(2463)+
state. We have also searched, but find no evidence, for decays of the two
states via the channels Ds*+gamma, Ds+gamma, and Ds+pi+pi-. The observations of
the two states at 2.32 and 2.46 GeV, in the Ds+pi0 and Ds*+pi0 decay channels
respectively, are consistent with their interpretations as (c anti-strange)
mesons with orbital angular momentum L=1, and spin-parities of 0+ and 1+.Comment: 16 pages postscript, also available through
http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, version to be published in Physical
Review D; minor modifications and fixes to typographical errors, plus an
added section on production properties. The main results are unchanged; they
supersede those reported in hep-ex/030501
Measurement of the Charge Asymmetry in
We report on a search for a CP-violating asymmetry in the charmless hadronic
decay B -> K*(892)+- pi-+, using 9.12 fb^-1 of integrated luminosity produced
at \sqrt{s}=10.58 GeV and collected with the CLEO detector. We find A_{CP}(B ->
K*(892)+- pi-+) = 0.26+0.33-0.34(stat.)+0.10-0.08(syst.), giving an allowed
interval of [-0.31,0.78] at the 90% confidence level.Comment: 7 pages postscript, also available through
http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, submitted to PR
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Pegasus IV: Discovery and Spectroscopic Confirmation of an Ultra-faint Dwarf Galaxy in the Constellation Pegasus
We report the discovery of Pegasus IV, an ultra-faint dwarf galaxy found in archival data from the Dark Energy Camera processed by the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey. Pegasus IV is a compact, ultra-faint stellar system (r1 2 = 41-+68 pc; MV = â4.25 ± 0.2 mag) located at a heliocentric distance of 90-+64 kpc. Based on spectra of seven nonvariable member stars observed with Magellan/IMACS, we confidently resolve Pegasus IVâs velocity dispersion, measuring sv = 3.3-+1.11.7 km sâ1 (after excluding three velocity outliers); this implies a mass-to-light ratio of M1 2 LV,1 2 = 167-+99224Mâ Lâ for the system. From the five stars with the highest signal-to-noise spectra, we also measure a systemic metallicity of [Fe/H] =-2.63-+0.300.26 dex, making Pegasus IV one of the most metal-poor ultra-faint dwarfs. We tentatively resolve a nonzero metallicity dispersion for the system. These measurements provide strong evidence that Pegasus IV is a dark-matter-dominated dwarf galaxy, rather than a star cluster. We measure Pegasus IVâs proper motion using data from Gaia Early Data Release 3, finding (Όα*, ΌΎ) = (0.33 ± 0.07, â0.21 ± 0.08) mas yrâ1. When combined with our measured systemic velocity, this proper motion suggests that Pegasus IV is on an elliptical, retrograde orbit, and is currently near its orbital apocenter. Lastly, we identify three potential RR Lyrae variable stars within Pegasus IV, including one candidate member located more than 10 half-light radii away from the systemâs centroid. The discovery of yet another ultra-faint dwarf galaxy strongly suggests that the census of Milky Way satellites is still incomplete, even within 100 kpc
Study of the q^2-Dependence of B --> pi ell nu and B --> rho(omega)ell nu Decay and Extraction of |V_ub|
We report on determinations of |Vub| resulting from studies of the branching
fraction and q^2 distributions in exclusive semileptonic B decays that proceed
via the b->u transition. Our data set consists of the 9.7x10^6 BBbar meson
pairs collected at the Y(4S) resonance with the CLEO II detector. We measure
B(B0 -> pi- l+ nu) = (1.33 +- 0.18 +- 0.11 +- 0.01 +- 0.07)x10^{-4} and B(B0 ->
rho- l+ nu) = (2.17 +- 0.34 +0.47/-0.54 +- 0.41 +- 0.01)x10^{-4}, where the
errors are statistical, experimental systematic, systematic due to residual
form-factor uncertainties in the signal, and systematic due to residual
form-factor uncertainties in the cross-feed modes, respectively. We also find
B(B+ -> eta l+ nu) = (0.84 +- 0.31 +- 0.16 +- 0.09)x10^{-4}, consistent with
what is expected from the B -> pi l nu mode and quark model symmetries. We
extract |Vub| using Light-Cone Sum Rules (LCSR) for 0<= q^2<16 GeV^2 and
Lattice QCD (LQCD) for 16 GeV^2 <= q^2 < q^2_max. Combining both intervals
yields |Vub| = (3.24 +- 0.22 +- 0.13 +0.55/-0.39 +- 0.09)x10^{-3}$ for pi l nu,
and |Vub| = (3.00 +- 0.21 +0.29/-0.35 +0.49/-0.38 +-0.28)x10^{-3} for rho l nu,
where the errors are statistical, experimental systematic, theoretical, and
signal form-factor shape, respectively. Our combined value from both decay
modes is |Vub| = (3.17 +- 0.17 +0.16/-0.17 +0.53/-0.39 +-0.03)x10^{-3}.Comment: 45 pages postscript, also available through
http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, submitted to PR
Study of the B^0 Semileptonic Decay Spectrum at the Upsilon(4S) Resonance
We have made a first measurement of the lepton momentum spectrum in a sample
of events enriched in neutral B's through a partial reconstruction of B0 -->
D*- l+ nu. This spectrum, measured with 2.38 fb**-1 of data collected at the
Upsilon(4S) resonance by the CLEO II detector, is compared directly to the
inclusive lepton spectrum from all Upsilon(4S) events in the same data set.
These two spectra are consistent with having the same shape above 1.5 GeV/c.
From the two spectra and two other CLEO measurements, we obtain the B0 and B+
semileptonic branching fractions, b0 and b+, their ratio, and the production
ratio f+-/f00 of B+ and B0 pairs at the Upsilon(4S). We report b+/b0=0.950
(+0.117-0.080) +- 0.091, b0 = (10.78 +- 0.60 +- 0.69)%, and b+ = (10.25 +- 0.57
+- 0.65)%. b+/b0 is equivalent to the ratio of charged to neutral B lifetimes,
tau+/tau0.Comment: 14 page, postscript file also available at
http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLN
Measurement of the Decay Asymmetry Parameters in and
We have measured the weak decay asymmetry parameters (\aLC ) for two \LC\
decay modes. Our measurements are \aLC = -0.94^{+0.21+0.12}_{-0.06-0.06} for
the decay mode and \aLC = -0.45\pm 0.31 \pm
0.06 for the decay mode . By combining these
measurements with the previously measured decay rates, we have extracted the
parity-violating and parity-conserving amplitudes. These amplitudes are used to
test models of nonleptonic charmed baryon decay.Comment: 11 pages including the figures. Uses REVTEX and psfig macros. Figures
as uuencoded postscript. Also available as
http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS/1995/CLNS95-1319.p
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