Flood hazard mapping of a rapidly urbanizing city in the foothills (Birendranagar, Surkhet) of Nepal

Flooding in the rapidly urbanizing city of Birendranagar, Nepal has been intensifying, culminating in massive loss of life and property during July and August 2014. No previous studies have monitored underlying land-cover dynamics and flood hazards for the area. This study described spatiotemporal urbanization dynamics and associated land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes of the city using Landsat imagery classifications for five periods between 1989 and 2016 (1989-1996, 1996-2001, 2001-2011, 2011-2016). Areas with high flood-hazard risk were also identified on the basis of field surveys, literature, and the Landsat analysis. The major LULC changes observed were the rapid expansion of urban cover and the gradual decline of cultivated lands. The urban area expanded nearly by 700%, from 85 ha in 1989 to 656 ha in 2016, with an average annual growth rate of 23.99%. Cultivated land declined simultaneously by 12%, from 7005 ha to 6205 ha. The loss of forest cover also contributed significantly to increased flood hazard. Steep topography, excessive land utilization, fragile physiographic structure, and intense monsoonal precipitation aggravate hazards locally. As in Nepal generally, the sustainable development of the Birendranagar area has been jeopardized by a disregard for integrated flood-hazard mapping, accounting for historical land-cover changes. This study provides essential input information for improved urban-area planning in this regard

Urban expansion occurred at the expense of agricultural lands in the Tarai region of Nepal from 1989 to 2016

Recent rapid urbanization in developing countries presents challenges for sustainable environmental planning and peri-urban cropland management. An improved understanding of the timing and pattern of urbanization is needed to determine how to better plan urbanization for the near future. Here, we describe the spatio-temporal patterns of urbanization and related land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes in the Tarai region of Nepal, as well as discuss the factors underlying its rapid urban expansion. Analyses are based on regional time-series Landsat 5, 7 and 8 image classifications for six years between 1989 and 2016, representing the first long-term observations of their kind for Nepal. During this 27-year period, gains in urban cover and losses of cultivated lands occurred widely. Urban cover occupied 221.1 km2 in 1989 and increased 320% by 2016 to a total 930.22 km2. Cultivated land was the primary source of new urban cover. Of the new urban cover added since 1989, 93% was formerly cultivated. Urban expansion occurred at moderately exponential rates over consecutive observation periods, with nearly half of all urban expansion occurring during 2006–2011 (305 km2). The annual rate of urban growth during 1989–1996 averaged 3.3% but reached as high as 8.09% and 12.61% during 1996–2001 and 2011–2016, respectively. At the district level, the rate of urban growth and, by extension, agricultural loss, were weakly related to total population growth. Variability in this relationship suggests that concerted urban-growth management may reduce losses of agricultural lands relative to historic trends despite further population growth and urbanization. Urbanization and LULC change in the Tarai region are attributable to significant inter-regional migration in a context of poor urban planning and lax policies controlling the conversion and fragmentation of peri-urban cultivated lands. Urban expansion and farmland loss are expected to continue in the future

Patterns of historical and future urban expansion in Nepal

Globally, urbanization is increasing at an unprecedented rate at the cost of agricultural and forested lands in peri-urban areas fringing larger cities. Such land-cover change generally entails negative implications for societal and environmental sustainability, particularly in South Asia, where high demographic growth and poor land-use planning combine. Analyzing historical land-use change and predicting the future trends concerning urban expansion may support more effective land-use planning and sustainable outcomes. For Nepal's Tarai region-a populous area experiencing land-use change due to urbanization and other factors-we draw on Landsat satellite imagery to analyze historical land-use change focusing on urban expansion during 1989-2016 and predict urban expansion by 2026 and 2036 using artificial neural network (ANN) and Markov chain (MC) spatial models based on historical trends. Urban cover quadrupled since 1989, expanding by 256 km2 (460%), largely as small scattered settlements. This expansion was almost entirely at the expense of agricultural conversion (249 km2). After 2016, urban expansion is predicted to increase linearly by a further 199 km2 by 2026 and by another 165 km2 by 2036, almost all at the expense of agricultural cover. Such unplanned loss of prime agricultural lands in Nepal's fertile Tarai region is of serious concern for food-insecure countries like Nepal

Impact of Land Cover Change on Ecosystem Services in a Tropical Forested Landscape

Ecosystems provide a wide range of goods, services or ecosystem services (ES) to society. Estimating the impact of land use and land cover (LULC) changes on ES values (ESV) is an important tool to support decision making. This study used remote sensing and GIS tools to analyze LULC change and transitions from 2001 to 2016 and assess its impact on ESV in a tropical forested landscape in the southern plains of Nepal. The total ESV of the landscape for the year 2016 is estimated at USD 1264 million year−1. As forests are the dominant land cover class and have high ES value per hectare, they have the highest contribution in total ESV. However, as a result of LULC change (loss of forests, water bodies, and agricultural land), the total ESV of the landscape has declined by USD 11 million year−1. Major reductions come from the loss in values of climate regulation, water supply, provision of raw materials and food production. To halt the ongoing loss of ES and maintain the supply and balance of different ES in the landscape, it is important to properly monitor, manage and utilize ecosystems. We believe this study will inform policymakers, environmental managers, and the general public on the ongoing changes and contribute to developing effective land use policy in the region

A systematic review of Nepalese farmers’ climate change adaptation strategies

Given the increasing vulnerabilities and adverse effects of climate change, the development and implementation of adaptation strategies is essential. This is particularly so for Nepal where the agriculture sector–the mainstay of the country’s economy–is highly vulnerable to climate change. As a country that loses much from climate change, local communities here have been adapting to climate change impacts using localized knowledge and practices. However, few studies have systematically reviewed the adaptation strategies of Nepalese farmers. We conduct such a review using the RepOrting Standards for Systematic Evidence Syntheses (ROSES) guidelines. The relevant literature is retrieved using Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar databases. The adaptation strategies of the Nepalese farmers are broadly categorized under seven themes and twenty-nine sub-themes: (a) access to financial resources and risk transfer; (b) diversification of livelihoods, income sources and agricultural practices; (c) spatial adaptation; (d) climate smart agriculture; (e) common pooling of resources and social action; (f) traditional and local knowledge; and (g) food and water storage and security. Diversification of livelihoods, income sources and agricultural practices are the most common adaptation strategies employed. All the strategies practiced are autonomous, have a short term orientation and reactive in nature rather than being sustainable and proactive. The outputs of this study explore the significance of the local adaptation strategies and to what extent they should be integrated into the mainstream of national and local level development plans. These findings of Nepal–are relevant to neighbouring countries such as Bhutan, Bangladesh and India. Key policy insights - This study finds that locally practiced adaptation strategies have a short term and reactive focus rather than being sustainable and proactive solutions. - Farmers are confronting weak institutions and financial and managerial difficulties in coping with climate change and adapting to its impacts; hence, local-level adaptation strategies alone cannot cope with the harsh impacts of climate change.  - The research findings indicate the urgency and need to integrate or mainstream local adaptation strategies into national and local level development planning to strengthen adaptation practice and make it sustainable.</p

Growing City and Rapid Land Use Transition: Assessing Multiple Hazards and Risks in the Pokhara Valley, Nepal

Pokhara is one of the most naturally beautiful cities in the world with a unique geological setting. This important tourist city is under intense pressure from rapid urbanization and population growth. Multiple hazards and risks are rapidly increasing in Pokhara due to unsustainable land use practices, particularly the increase in built-up areas. This study examines the relationship among urbanization, land use/land cover dynamics and multiple hazard and risk analysis of the Pokhara valley from 1990 to 2013. We investigate some of the active hazards, such as floods, landslides, fire, sinkholes, land subsidence and earthquakes, and prepare an integrated multiple hazard risk map indicating the highly vulnerable zones. Land use and land cover maps from 1990 and 2013 from Landsat images (30 m resolution) have been prepared and analyzed for the spatial dynamics of urbanization and the transition of land use and land cover. In the 23-year period, the built-up area more than doubled from 24.03 km² to 54.20 km². Although the landscape in the urban, peri-urban and rural areas appears to be fragmented, different drivers play pivotal roles in landscape change in these areas. The results provide substantial information for establishing innovative action plans for disaster risk management in the valley. Recommendations are made for the most suitable places for future urban expansion in the valley. This study is important for raising awareness among policy makers and other public officials to include multiple hazard risk mitigation in land use policies and plans. Establishing connections between urban expansions, escalating population growth and multiple hazards and risk assessment will also improve in modelling the latent impact of future catastrophes and emergency preparedness

Quantifying the Spatiotemporal Pattern of Urban Expansion and Hazard and Risk Area Identification in the Kaski District of Nepal

The present study utilized time-series Landsat images to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of urbanization and land use/land-cover (LULC) change in the Kaski District of Nepal from 1988 to 2016. For the specific overtime analysis of change, the LULC transition was clustered into six time periods: 1988–1996, 1996–2000, 2000–2004, 2004–2008, 2008–2013, and 2013–2016. The classification was carried out using a support vector machine (SVM) algorithm and 11 LULC categories were identified. The classified images were further used to predict LULC change scenarios for 2025 and 2035 using the hybrid cellular automata Markov chain (CA-Markov) model. Major hazard risk areas were identified using available databases, satellite images, literature surveys, and field observations. Extensive field visits were carried out for ground truth data acquisition to verify the LULC maps and identify multihazard risk areas. The overall classification accuracy of the LULC map for each year was observed to be from 85% to 93%. We explored the remarkable increase in urban/built-up areas from 24.06 km2 in 1988 to 60.74 km2 by 2016. A majority of urban/built-up areas were sourced from cultivated land. For the six time periods, totals of 91.04%, 78.68%, 75.90%, 90.44%, 92.35%, and 99.46% of the newly expanded urban land were sourced from cultivated land. Various settlements within and away from the city of Pokhara and cultivated land at the river banks were found at risk. A fragile geological setting, unstable slopes, high precipitation, dense settlement, rampant urbanization, and discrete LULC change are primarily accountable for the increased susceptibility to hazards. The predicted results showed that the urban area is likely to continue to grow by 2025 and 2035. Despite the significant transformation of LULC and the prevalence of multiple hazards, no previous studies have undertaken a long-term time-series and simulation of the LULC scenario. Updated district-level databases of urbanization and hazards related to the Kaski District were lacking. Hence, the research results will assist future researchers and planners in developing sustainable expansion policies that may ensure disaster-resilient sustainable urban development of the study area

Contribution of Community-Managed Sal-Based Forest in Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: A Case from Nepal

Forests are viable tools in combating the impacts of climate change, as they are capable of sequestering atmospheric carbon and storing it in different pools. This study aimed to examine the carbon sequestration potential of community-managed Shorea robusta (Sal) forest and assess the practices that have the potential to reduce adverse climate change impacts, thereby improving the livelihoods of forest-based communities. For this, we obtained forest inventory-derived carbon data from 11 sample plots of Shorea robusta (Sal) forest, analyzed them using allometric equations, and estimated the carbon storage and climate change mitigation potential of these forests, while focus group discussions and desk review of secondary information were employed to investigate the adaptation potential. The results show that the estimated biomass density of the selected forest is 352.46 &plusmn; 63.79 t/ha, whereas the carbon stock density is 165.66 &plusmn; 29.98 t/ha and the CO2 equivalent is 598.07 &plusmn; 110.48 t/ha. The study further revealed that community forest management, as a successful model of participatory forest management and community forest user group (CFUG) as a resourceful local institution, has been playing an important role in the diversification of livelihoods and income opportunities, social cohesion and thus climate change adaptation through collective actions. The adaptation and mitigation of climate change impacts have been prioritized in the operational plans of the CFUGs. Through the promotion and prioritization of alternative energy, agroforestry and enhanced livelihood options, the CFUGs are committed to the sustainable management of forest resources and to enhancing the livelihoods of local communities. This study indicates the relevance of community forests as a priority institution for the implementation of Local Adaptation Plans for Action (LAPA) and support National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) to combat climatic impacts, providing important information for planners and policy makers in Nepal and elsewhere

Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics and Modeling of Urban Land Expansion by the Integration of Cellular Automata and Markov Chain

This study explored the past and present land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes and urban expansion pattern for the cities of the Kathmandu valley and their surroundings using Landsat satellite images from 1988 to 2016. For a better analysis, LULC change information was grouped into seven time-periods (1988–1992, 1992–1996, 1996–2000, 2000–2004, 2004–2008, 2008–2013, and 2013–2016). The classification was conducted using the support vector machines (SVM) technique. A hybrid simulation model that combined the Markov-Chain and Cellular Automata (MC-CA) was used to predict the future urban sprawl existing by 2024 and 2032. Research analysis explored the significant expansion in urban cover which was manifested at the cost of cultivated land. The urban area totaled 40.53 km2 in 1988, which increased to 144.35 km2 in 2016 with an average annual growth rate of 9.15%, an overall increase of 346.85%. Cultivated land was the most affected land-use from this expansion. A total of 91% to 98% of the expanded urban area was sourced from cultivated land alone. Future urban sprawl is likely to continue, which will be outweighed by the loss of cultivated land as in the previous decades. The urban area will be expanded to 200 km2 and 238 km2 and cultivated land will decline to 587 km2 and 555 km2 by 2024 and 2032. Currently, urban expansion is occurring towards the west and south directions; however, future urban growth is expected to rise in the southern and eastern part of the study area, dismantling the equilibrium of environmental and anthropogenic avenues. Since the study area is a cultural landscape and UNESCO heritage site, balance must be found not only in developing a city, but also in preserving the natural environment and maintaining cultural artifacts