Machine learning-based dynamic mortality prediction after traumatic brain injury

Our aim was to create simple and largely scalable machine learning-based algorithms that could predict mortality in a real-time fashion during intensive care after traumatic brain injury. We performed an observational multicenter study including adult TBI patients that were monitored for intracranial pressure (ICP) for at least 24 h in three ICUs. We used machine learning-based logistic regression modeling to create two algorithms (based on ICP, mean arterial pressure [MAP], cerebral perfusion pressure [CPP] and Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS]) to predict 30-day mortality. We used a stratified crossvalidation technique for internal validation. Of 472 included patients, 92 patients (19%) died within 30 days. Following cross-validation, the ICP-MAP-CPP algorithm's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) increased from 0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.60-0.74) on day 1 to 0.81 (95% CI 0.75-0.87) on day 5. The ICP-MAP-CPP-GCS algorithm's AUC increased from 0.72 (95% CI 0.64-0.78) on day 1 to 0.84 (95% CI 0.78-0.90) on day 5. Algorithm misclassification was seen among patients undergoing decompressive craniectomy. In conclusion, we present a new concept of dynamic prognostication for patients with TBI treated in the ICU. Our simple algorithms, based on only three and four main variables, discriminated between survivors and non-survivors with accuracies up to 81% and 84%. These open-sourced simple algorithms can likely be further developed, also in low and middleincome countries.Peer reviewe

Acute hormonal findings after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage - report from a single center

Purpose: The aim was to assess anterior pituitary hormone levels during the acute phase of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) and analyze the possible association with the clinical condition and outcome. Material and methods: Forty patients with aSAH whose aneurysm was secured by endovascular coiling were enrolled. Basal secretions of cortisol, testosterone, luteinizing hormone (LH), prolactin (PRL), and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) levels were measured up to 14 days after the incident. Results: The main finding was that hypocortisolism was rare whereas testosterone deficiency was common in male patients. Furthermore, various other hormone deviations were frequent and there was wide interindividual variability. We found no association between delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI), outcome of the patients or aneurysm location, and hormone abnormalities, while both Hunt & Hess and Fisher grade were associated with low PRL levels. Hunt & Hess 5 was associated with low PRL concentration when compared to grades 1 (OR = 4.81, 95% CI 1.15-20.14, p = 0.03), 3 (OR 7.73, 95% CI 1.33-45.01, p = 0.02), and 4 (OR = 6.86 95% CI 1.28-26.83, p = 0.02). Fisher grade 4 was associated with low PRL concentration when compared to grades 3 (OR 3.37, 95% CI 1.06-10.73, p = 0.03) and 2 (OR 9.71, 95% CI 1.22-77.10, p = 0.04). Conclusion: Deviations from normal and huge interindividual differences are common in hormone levels during the acute phase of aSAH. Routine assessment of anterior pituitary function in the acute phase of aSAH is not warranted. During the follow-up in the outpatient clinic, hormone concentrations were not measured, which would have brought a more long-term perspective into our findings.Peer reviewe

Machine learning-based dynamic mortality prediction after traumatic brain injury

Our aim was to create simple and largely scalable machine learning-based algorithms that could predict mortality in a real-time fashion during intensive care after traumatic brain injury. We performed an observational multicenter study including adult TBI patients that were monitored for intracranial pressure (ICP) for at least 24 h in three ICUs. We used machine learning-based logistic regression modeling to create two algorithms (based on ICP, mean arterial pressure [MAP], cerebral perfusion pressure [CPP] and Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS]) to predict 30-day mortality. We used a stratified crossvalidation technique for internal validation. Of 472 included patients, 92 patients (19%) died within 30 days. Following cross-validation, the ICP-MAP-CPP algorithm's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) increased from 0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.60-0.74) on day 1 to 0.81 (95% CI 0.75-0.87) on day 5. The ICP-MAP-CPP-GCS algorithm's AUC increased from 0.72 (95% CI 0.64-0.78) on day 1 to 0.84 (95% CI 0.78-0.90) on day 5. Algorithm misclassification was seen among patients undergoing decompressive craniectomy. In conclusion, we present a new concept of dynamic prognostication for patients with TBI treated in the ICU. Our simple algorithms, based on only three and four main variables, discriminated between survivors and non-survivors with accuracies up to 81% and 84%. These open-sourced simple algorithms can likely be further developed, also in low and middleincome countries

Integrative Analysis of Circulating Metabolite Profiles and Magnetic Resonance Imaging Metrics in Patients with Traumatic Brain Injury

Recent evidence suggests that patients with traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) have a distinct circulating metabolic profile. However, it is unclear if this metabolomic profile corresponds to changes in brain morphology as observed by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The aim of this study was to explore how circulating serum metabolites, following TBI, relate to structural MRI (sMRI) findings. Serum samples were collected upon admission to the emergency department from patients suffering from acute TBI and metabolites were measured using mass spectrometry-based metabolomics. Most of these patients sustained a mild TBI. In the same patients, sMRIs were taken and volumetric data were extracted (138 metrics). From a pool of 203 eligible screened patients, 96 met the inclusion criteria for this study. Metabolites were summarized as eight clusters and sMRI data were reduced to 15 independent components (ICs). Partial correlation analysis showed that four metabolite clusters had significant associations with specific ICs, reflecting both the grey and white matter brain injury. Multiple machine learning approaches were then applied in order to investigate if circulating metabolites could distinguish between positive and negative sMRI findings. A logistic regression model was developed, comprised of two metabolic predictors (erythronic acid and myo-inositol), which, together with neurofilament light polypeptide (NF-L), discriminated positive and negative sMRI findings with an area under the curve of the receiver-operating characteristic of 0.85 (specificity = 0.89, sensitivity = 0.65). The results of this study show that metabolomic analysis of blood samples upon admission, either alone or in combination with protein biomarkers, can provide valuable information about the impact of TBI on brain structural changes

Trajectories of interleukin 10 and heart fatty acid-binding protein levels in traumatic brain injury patients with or without extracranial injuries

BackgroundInterleukin 10 (IL-10) and heart fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP) have gained interest as diagnostic biomarkers of traumatic brain injury (TBI), but factors affecting their blood levels in patients with moderate-to-severe TBI are largely unknown.ObjectiveTo investigate the trajectories of IL-10 and H-FABP between TBI patients with and without extracranial injuries (ECI); to investigate if there is a correlation between the levels of IL-10 and H-FABP with the levels of inflammation/infection markers C-reactive protein (CRP) and leukocytes; and to investigate if there is a correlation between the admission level of H-FABP with admission levels of cardiac injury markers, troponin (TnT), creatine kinase (CK), and creatine kinase MB isoenzyme mass (CK-MBm).Materials and methodsThe admission levels of IL-10, H-FABP, CRP, and leukocytes were measured within 24 h post-TBI and on days 1, 2, 3, and 7 after TBI. The admission levels of TnT, CK, and CK-MBm were measured within 24 h post-TBI.ResultsThere was a significant difference in the concentration of H-FABP between TBI patients with and without ECI on day 0 (48.2 ± 20.5 and 12.4 ± 14.7 ng/ml, p = 0.02, respectively). There was no significant difference in the levels of IL-10 between these groups at any timepoints. There was a statistically significant positive correlation between IL-10 and CRP on days 2 (R = 0.43, p < 0.01) and 7 (R = 0.46, p = 0.03) after injury, and a negative correlation between H-FABP and CRP on day 0 (R = -0.45, p = 0.01). The levels of IL-10 or H-FABP did not correlate with leukocyte counts at any timepoint. The admission levels of H-FABP correlated with CK (R = 0.70, p < 0.001) and CK-MBm (R = 0.61, p < 0.001), but not with TnT.ConclusionInflammatory reactions during the early days after a TBI do not significantly confound the use of IL-10 and H-FABP as TBI biomarkers. Extracranial injuries and cardiac sources may influence the levels of H-FABP in patients with moderate-to-severe TBI

Admission Levels of Total Tau and β-Amyloid Isoforms 1–40 and 1–42 in Predicting the Outcome of Mild Traumatic Brain Injury

Background: The purpose of this study was to investigate if admission levels of total tau (T-tau) and β-amyloid isoforms 1-40 (Aβ40) and 1-42 (Aβ42) could predict clinical outcome in patients with mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). Methods: A total of 105 patients with mTBI [Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) ≥ 13] recruited in Turku University Hospital, Turku, Finland were included in this study. Blood samples were drawn within 24 h of admission for analysis of plasma T-tau, Aβ40, and Aβ42. Patients were divided into computed tomography (CT)-positive and CT-negative groups. The outcome was assessed 6–12 months after the injury using the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE). Outcomes were defined as complete (GOSE 8) or incomplete (GOSE < 8) recovery. The Rivermead Post Concussion Symptoms Questionnaire (RPCSQ) was also used to assess mTBI-related symptoms. Predictive values of the biomarkers were analyzed independently, in panels and together with clinical parameters. Results: The admission levels of plasma T-tau, Aβ40, and Aβ42 were not significantly different between patients with complete and incomplete recovery. The levels of T-tau, Aβ40, and Aβ42 could poorly predict complete recovery, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.56, 0.52, and 0.54, respectively. For the whole cohort, there was a significant negative correlation between the levels of T-tau and ordinal GOSE score (Spearman ρ = −0.231, p = 0.018). In a multivariate logistic regression model including age, GCS, duration of posttraumatic amnesia, Injury Severity Score (ISS), time from injury to sampling, and CT findings, none of the biomarkers could predict complete recovery independently or together with the other two biomarkers. Plasma levels of T-tau, Aβ40, and Aβ42 did not significantly differ between the outcome groups either within the CT-positive or CT-negative subgroups. Levels of Aβ40 and Aβ42 did not significantly correlate with outcome, but in the CT-positive subgroup, the levels of T-tau significantly correlated with ordinal GOSE score (Spearman ρ = −0.288, p = 0.035). The levels of T-tau, Aβ40, and Aβ42 were not correlated with the RPCSQ scores. Conclusions: The early levels of T-tau are correlated with the outcome in patients with mTBI, but none of the biomarkers either alone or in any combinations could predict complete recovery in patients with mTBI

Interleukin 10 and Heart Fatty Acid-Binding Protein as Early Outcome Predictors in Patients With Traumatic Brain Injury

Background:Patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) exhibit a variable and unpredictable outcome. The proteins interleukin 10 (IL-10) and heart fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP) have shown predictive values for the presence of intracranial lesions. Aim:To evaluate the individual and combined outcome prediction ability of IL-10 and H-FABP, and to compare them to the more studied proteins S100 beta, glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), and neurofilament light (NF-L), both with and without clinical predictors. Methods:Blood samples from patients with acute TBI (all severities) were collected 6 months post injury using the Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) score, dichotomizing patients into: (i) those with favorable (GOSE >= 5)/unfavorable outcome (GOSE <= 4) and complete (GOSE = 8)/incomplete (GOSE <= 7) recovery, and (ii) patients with mild TBI (mTBI) and patients with TBIs of all severities. Results:When sensitivity was set at 95-100%, the proteins' individual specificities remained low. H-FABP showed the best specificity (%) and sensitivity (100%) in predicting complete recovery in patients with mTBI. IL-10 had the best specificity (50%) and sensitivity (96%) in identifying patients with favorable outcome in patients with TBIs of all severities. When individual proteins were combined with clinical parameters, a model including H-FABP, NF-L, and ISS yielded a specificity of 56% and a sensitivity of 96% in predicting complete recovery in patients with mTBI. In predicting favorable outcome, a model consisting IL-10, age, and TBI severity reached a specificity of 80% and a sensitivity of 96% in patients with TBIs of all severities. Conclusion:Combining novel TBI biomarkers H-FABP and IL-10 with GFAP, NF-L and S100 beta and clinical parameters improves outcome prediction models in TBI

Potential of heart fatty-acid binding protein, neurofilament light, interleukin-10 and S100 calcium-binding protein B in the acute diagnostics and severity assessment of traumatic brain injury

Background: There is substantial interest in blood biomarkers as fast and objective diagnostic tools for traumatic brain injury (TBI) in the acute setting.Methods: Adult patients (≥18) with TBI of any severity and indications for CT scanning and orthopaedic injury controls were prospectively recruited during 2011-2013 at Turku University Hospital, Finland. The severity of TBI was classified with GCS: GCS 13-15 was classified as mild (mTBI); GCS 9-12 as moderate (moTBI) and GCS 3-8 as severe (sTBI). Serum samples were collected within 24 hours of admission and biomarker levels analysed with high-performance kits. The ability of biomarkers to distinguish between severity of TBI and CT-positive and CT-negative patients was assessed.Results: Among 189 patients recruited, neurofilament light (NF-L) was obtained from 175 patients with TBI and 40 controls. S100 calcium-binding protein B (S100B), heart fatty-acid binding protein (H-FABP) and interleukin-10 (IL-10) were analysed for 184 patients with TBI and 39 controls. There were statistically significant differences between levels of all biomarkers between the severity classes, but none of the biomarkers distinguished patients with moTBI from patients with sTBI. Patients with mTBI discharged from the ED had lower levels of IL-10 (0.26, IQR=0.21, 0.39 pg/mL), H-FABP (4.15, IQR=2.72, 5.83 ng/mL) and NF-L (8.6, IQR=6.35, 15.98 pg/mL) compared with those admitted to the neurosurgical ward, IL-10 (0.55, IQR=0.31, 1.42 pg/mL), H-FABP (6.022, IQR=4.19, 20.72 ng/mL) and NF-L (13.95, IQR=8.33, 19.93 pg/mL). We observed higher levels of H-FABP and NF-L in older patients with mTBI. None of the biomarkers or their combinations was able to distinguish CT-positive (n=36) or CT-negative (n=58) patients with mTBI from controls.Conclusions: S100B, H-FABP, NF-L and IL-10 levels in patients with mTBI were significantly lower than in patients with moTBI and sTBI but alone or in combination, were unable to distinguish patients with mTBI from orthopaedic controls. This suggests these biomarkers cannot be used alone to diagnose mTBI in trauma patients in the acute setting.</p

Admission Levels of Total Tau and β-Amyloid Isoforms 1–40 and 1–42 in Predicting the Outcome of Mild Traumatic Brain Injury

Background: The purpose of this study was to investigate if admission levels of total tau (T-tau) and beta-amyloid isoforms 1-40 (A beta 40) and 1-42 (A beta 42) could predict clinical outcome in patients with mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI).Methods: A total of 105 patients with mTBI [Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) >= 13] recruited in Turku University Hospital, Turku, Finland were included in this study. Blood samples were drawn within 24 h of admission for analysis of plasma T-tau, A beta 40, and A beta 42. Patients were divided into computed tomography (CT)-positive and CT-negative groups. The outcome was assessed 6-12 months after the injury using the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOSE). Outcomes were defined as complete (GOSE 8) or incomplete (GOSE Results: The admission levels of plasma T-tau, A beta 40, and A beta 42 were not significantly different between patients with complete and incomplete recovery. The levels of T-tau, A beta 40, and A beta 42 could poorly predict complete recovery, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.56, 0.52, and 0.54, respectively. For the whole cohort, there was a significant negative correlation between the levels of T-tau and ordinal GOSE score (Spearman rho = -0.231, p = 0.018). In a multivariate logistic regression model including age, GCS, duration of posttraumatic amnesia, Injury Severity Score (ISS), time from injury to sampling, and CT findings, none of the biomarkers could predict complete recovery independently or together with the other two biomarkers. Plasma levels of T-tau, A beta 40, and A beta 42 did not significantly differ between the outcome groups either within the CT-positive or CT-negative subgroups. Levels of A beta 40 and A beta 42 did not significantly correlate with outcome, but in the CT-positive subgroup, the levels of T-tau significantly correlated with ordinal GOSE score (Spearman rho = -0.288, p = 0.035). The levels of T-tau, A beta 40, and A beta 42 were not correlated with the RPCSQ scores.Conclusions: The early levels of T-tau are correlated with the outcome in patients with mTBI, but none of the biomarkers either alone or in any combinations could predict complete recovery in patients with mTBI.</div

Admission Levels of Interleukin 10 and Amyloid β 1–40 Improve the Outcome Prediction Performance of the Helsinki Computed Tomography Score in Traumatic Brain Injury

Background: Blood biomarkers may enhance outcome prediction performance of head computed tomography scores in traumatic brain injury (TBI). Objective: To investigate whether admission levels of eight different protein biomarkers can improve the outcome prediction performance of the Helsinki computed tomography score (HCTS) without clinical covariates in TBI. Materials and methods: Eighty-two patients with computed tomography positive TBIs were included in this study. Plasma levels of β-amyloid isoforms 1–40 (Aβ40) and 1–42 (Aβ42), glial fibrillary acidic protein, heart fatty acid-binding protein, interleukin 10 (IL-10), neurofilament light, S100 calcium-binding protein B, and total tau were measured within 24 h from admission. The patients were divided into favorable (Glasgow Outcome Scale—Extended 5–8, n = 49) and unfavorable (Glasgow Outcome Scale—Extended 1–4, n = 33) groups. The outcome was assessed 6–12 months after injury. An optimal predictive panel was investigated with the sensitivity set at 90–100%. Results: The HCTS alone yielded a sensitivity of 97.0% (95% CI: 90.9–100) and specificity of 22.4% (95% CI: 10.2–32.7) and partial area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic of 2.5% (95% CI: 1.1–4.7), in discriminating patients with favorable and unfavorable outcomes. The threshold to detect a patient with unfavorable outcome was an HCTS > 1. The three best individually performing biomarkers in outcome prediction were Aβ40, Aβ42, and neurofilament light. The optimal panel included IL-10, Aβ40, and the HCTS reaching a partial area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic of 3.4% (95% CI: 1.7–6.2) with a sensitivity of 90.9% (95% CI: 81.8–100) and specificity of 59.2% (95% CI: 40.8–69.4). Conclusion: Admission plasma levels of IL-10 and Aβ40 significantly improve the prognostication ability of the HCTS after TBI