Variance Reduction Techniques in Monte Carlo Methods

Monte Carlo methods are simulation algorithms to estimate a numerical quantity in a statistical model of a real system. These algorithms are executed by computer programs. Variance reduction techniques (VRT) are needed, even though computer speed has been increasing dramatically, ever since the introduction of computers. This increased computer power has stimulated simulation analysts to develop ever more realistic models, so that the net result has not been faster execution of simulation experiments; e.g., some modern simulation models need hours or days for a single ’run’ (one replication of one scenario or combination of simulation input values). Moreover there are some simulation models that represent rare events which have extremely small probabilities of occurrence), so even modern computer would take ’for ever’ (centuries) to execute a single run - were it not that special VRT can reduce theses excessively long runtimes to practical magnitudes.common random numbers;antithetic random numbers;importance sampling;control variates;conditioning;stratied sampling;splitting;quasi Monte Carlo

Capacity planning of prisons in the Netherlands

In this paper we describe a decision support system developed to help in assessing the need for various type of prison cells. In particular we predict the probability that a criminal has to be sent home because of a shortage of cells. The problem is modelled through a queueing network with blocking after service. We focus in particular on the new analytical method to solve this network

An (s,Q) inventory model with remanufacturing and disposal

In this paper we analyse an (s, Q) inventory model in which used products can be remanufactured to new ones. We develop two approximations for the average costs and compare their performance with that of an approximation suggested by Muckstadt and Isaac. Next we extend the model with the option to dispose returned products and present a heuristic optimisation procedure which is checked with full enumeration