Hierarchical Regression for Multiple Comparisons in a Case-Control Study of Occupational Risks for Lung Cancer

BACKGROUND Occupational studies often involve multiple comparisons and therefore suffer from false positive findings. Semi-Bayes adjustment methods have sometimes been used to address this issue. Hierarchical regression is a more general approach, including Semi-Bayes adjustment as a special case, that aims at improving the validity of standard maximum-likelihood estimates in the presence of multiple comparisons by incorporating similarities between the exposures of interest in a second-stage model. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We re-analysed data from an occupational case-control study of lung cancer, applying hierarchical regression. In the second-stage model, we included the exposure to three known lung carcinogens (asbestos, chromium and silica) for each occupation, under the assumption that occupations entailing similar carcinogenic exposures are associated with similar risks of lung cancer. Hierarchical regression estimates had smaller confidence intervals than maximum-likelihood estimates. The shrinkage toward the null was stronger for extreme, less stable estimates (e.g., "specialised farmers": maximum-likelihood OR: 3.44, 95%CI 0.90-13.17; hierarchical regression OR: 1.53, 95%CI 0.63-3.68). Unlike Semi-Bayes adjustment toward the global mean, hierarchical regression did not shrink all the ORs towards the null (e.g., "Metal smelting, converting and refining furnacemen": maximum-likelihood OR: 1.07, Semi-Bayes OR: 1.06, hierarchical regression OR: 1.26). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Hierarchical regression could be a valuable tool in occupational studies in which disease risk is estimated for a large amount of occupations when we have information available on the key carcinogenic exposures involved in each occupation. With the constant progress in exposure assessment methods in occupational settings and the availability of Job Exposure Matrices, it should become easier to apply this approach

Prevalence and follow-up of occult HCV infection in an Italian population free of clinically detectable infectious liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Occult hepatitis C virus infection (OCI) is a recently described phenomenon characterized by undetectable levels of HCV-RNA in serum/plasma by current laboratory assays, with identifiable levels in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and/or liver tissue by molecular tests with enhanced sensitivity. Previous results from our group showed an OCI prevalence of 3.3% in a population unselected for hepatic disease. The present study aimed to evaluate OCI prevalence in a larger cohort of infectious liver disease-free (ILDF) subjects. Clinical follow-up of OCI subjects was performed to investigate the natural history of the infection. METHODS AND FINDINGS: 439 subjects referred to a Turin Blood Bank for phlebotomy therapy were recruited. They included 314 ILDF subjects, 40 HCV-positive subjects and 85 HBV-positive subjects, of whom 7 were active HBV carriers. Six subjects (4/314 ILDF subjects [1.27%] and 2/7 active HBV carriers [28%]) were positive for HCV-RNA in PBMCs, but negative for serological and virological markers of HCV, indicating OCI. HCV genotypes were determined in the PBMCs of 3/6 OCI subjects two had type 1b; the other had type 2a/2c. OCI subjects were followed up for at least 2 years. After 12 months only one OCI persisted, showing a low HCV viral load (3.73×10(1) UI/ml). By the end of follow-up all OCI subjects were negative for HCV. No seroconversion, alteration of liver enzyme levels, or reduction of liver synthesis occurred during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated the existence of OCI in ILDF subjects, and suggested a high OCI prevalence among active HBV carriers. Follow-up suggested that OCI could be transient, with a trend toward the decrease of HCV viral load to levels undetectable by conventional methods after 12-18 months. Confirmation studies with a longer follow-up period are needed for identification of the OCI clearance or recurrence rates, and to characterize the viruses involved

Effects of Italian Smoking Regulation on Rates of Hospital Admission for Acute Coronary Events: A Country-Wide Study

BACKGROUND: Several studies have reported a reduction in acute coronary events (ACEs) in the general population after the enforcement of smoking regulations, although there is uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the effect of such interventions. We conducted a country-wide evaluation of the health effects of the introduction of a smoking ban in public places, using data on hospital admissions for ACEs from the Italian population after the implementation of a national smoking regulation in January 2005. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Rates of admission for ACEs in the 20 Italian regions from January 2002 to November 2006 were analysed using mixed-effect regression models that allowed for long-term trends and seasonality. Standard methods for interrupted time-series were adopted to assess the immediate and gradual effects of the smoking ban. Effect modification by age was investigated, with the assumption that exposure to passive smoking in public places would be greater among young people. In total, 936,519 hospital admissions for ACEs occurred in the Italian population during the study period. A 4% reduction in hospital admissions for ACEs among persons aged less than 70 years was evident after the introduction of the ban (Rate Ratio [RR], 0.96; 95% Confidence Interval [CI], 0.95-0.98). No effect was found among persons aged at least 70 years (RR 1.00; 95% CI 0.99-1.02). Effect modification by age was further suggested by analyses using narrower age categories. CONCLUSIONS: Smoke-free policies can constitute a simple and inexpensive intervention for the prevention of cardiovascular diseases and thus should be included in prevention programmes

Second malignancies among survivors of germ‐cell testicular cancer: A pooled analysis between 13 cancer registries

AbstractWe investigated the risk of second malignancies among 29,511 survivors of germ‐cell testicular cancer recorded in 13 cancer registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were estimated comparing the observed numbers of second malignancies with the expected numbers obtained from sex‐, age‐, period‐ and population‐specific incidence rates. Seminomas and nonseminomas, the 2 main histological groups of testicular cancer, were analyzed separately. During a median follow‐up period of 8.3 years (0–35 years), we observed 1,811 second tumors, with a corresponding SIR of 1.65 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.57–1.73). Statistically significant increased risks were found for fifteen cancer types, including SIRs of 2.0 or higher for cancers of the stomach, gallbladder and bile ducts, pancreas, bladder, kidney, thyroid, and for soft‐tissue sarcoma, nonmelanoma skin cancer and myeloid leukemia. The SIR for myeloid leukemia was 2.39 (95% CI: 1.41–3.77) after seminomas, and 6.77 (95% CI: 4.14–10.5) after nonseminomas. It increased to 37.9 (95% CI: 18.9–67.8; based on 11 observed cases of leukemia) among nonseminoma patients diagnosed since 1990. SIRs for most solid cancers increased with follow‐up duration, whereas they did not change with year of testicular cancer diagnosis. Among subjects diagnosed before 1980, 20 year survivors of seminoma had a cumulative risk of solid cancer of 9.6% (95% CI: 8.7–10.5%) vs. 6.5% expected, whereas 20 years survivors of nonseminoma had a risk of 5.0% (95% CI: 4.2–6.0%) vs. 3.1% expected. In conclusion, survivors of testicular cancers have an increased risk of several second primaries, where the effect of the treatment seems to play a major role. © 2006 Wiley‐Liss, Inc

Development and external validation of a head and neck cancer risk prediction model

This manuscript has been made open access under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) licence under the terms of the University of Aberdeen Research Publications Policy. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Peer reviewe