Revisiting the drivers of deforestation in the tropics: Insights from local and key informant perceptions in western Uganda

Deforestation has been widespread in the Northern Albertine Rift Landscape in rural Western Uganda. In this paper, we present perceptions from local residents and narratives from key informants on causes of forest loss during a 30-year period between 1985 and 2014. While the generic drivers we find are consistent with previous literature, we suggest that the specific context in which forest cover is lost in rural areas is path dependent, and this is vital for adequate management. In the Ugandan case, the history of the sugar industry and its relation to local political drivers and international considerations (e.g. biofuel) are prominent. Global drivers of forest loss therefore mask local-level complexities, but an amalgamation of local-level dynamics does not necessarily sum up to larger-scale manifestations (in a linear manner): striking a balance between understanding local-level and large-scale dynamics could be key in addressing the deforestation conundrum. We surveyed 263 households in 7 parishes around Budongo and Bugoma forests, and conducted 22 key informant interviews. Our findings indicate that the drivers and mechanisms of deforestation are local; they also vary between Budongo and Bugoma. Key amongst these include: agricultural expansion (28%–58.5% of the responses)—with large-scale commercial and small-scale subsistence farming significant around Budongo and Bugoma respectively; “poverty” (26%–76%) often alluding to heavy dependence on forests for livelihoods. Others include: population growth driven by dissimilar migratory patterns; and moving protected forest boundaries. Our data suggest that a combination of both local and key informant perceptions is instrumental in filling data gaps where a dearth of information is prevalent (especially around Bugoma forest), and is important for corroboration of other scientific data (e.g. remote sensing). However, a survey of wider literature indicates that there are significant issues missing from their stated views. While the continued expansion of cash-crop farming and lack of inclusion of local people in forest policy continues to raise concern, the stability of protected forest (i.e. Budongo and Bugoma) is encouraging and suggests a refocusing of the forest debate on practical working schemes for forest preservation and recovery might be the way forward for sustainable forestry and livelihoods

Teaching sustainable and integrated resource management using an interactive nexus model

Purpose – The purpose of this paper was to enhance and complement teaching about resource system feedbacks and environmental modelling. Students were given an interactive exercise based on a research model (ForeseerTM), developed by an inter-disciplinary research team, that explores the interconnectivity of water, energy and land resources. Two groups of students were involved, one of undergraduates and the other of graduates. Design/methodology/approach – The Foreseer model represents physical flows of the three resources (water, energy and land) using an interactive visual interface. The exercise was set up by giving students short instructions about how to use the tool to create four scenarios, and an online questionnaire was used to capture their understanding and their ability to extract information from the model. Findings – The exercise proved to be a helpful way to connect research and teaching in higher education, to the benefit of both. For students, it was an interactive and engaging way to learn about these complex sustainability issues. At the same time, it provided tangible feedback to researchers working on the model about the clarity of its user interface and its pedagogic value. Originality/value – This exercise represents a novel use of a resource model as a teaching tool in the study of the water, energy and land nexus, and is relevant to sustainability educators as an example of a model-centred learning approach on this topic. This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Emerald via http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/IJSHE-02-2014-002

Do livelihood typologies influence local perceptions of forest cover change? Evidence from a tropical forested and non-forested rural landscape in western Uganda

© 2016 Elsevier LtdValidation of scientific findings from satellite remote sensing against local ecological knowledge could make the interpretation of forest cover patterns more robust. In this paper, we examine local perceptions of forest cover change in parishes around Budongo and Bugoma for a 30-year period (1985–2014), compare the results with those obtained from remote sensing (Twongyirwe et al., 2015), and interrogate whether the perceptions could be related to livelihood typologies. First, we characterise household strategies for the entire landscape to place livelihood strategies of communities in deforestated areas in a broader local context. An in-depth questionnaire was administered to 706 households in 13 parishes situated in 4 Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs). The data included household demographic characteristics, energy use, cropping and livestock husbandry, and seasonal time- and labour-budgets. Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Cluster Analysis (CA) were employed to help identify dominant structures in the data. Secondly, the 375 households in 7 parishes around Budongo and Bugoma forests (part of the 706) responded to additional questions that sought their perceptions on the forest cover trend. The PCA results for the entire landscape show that significant variation amongst households is mainly related to the cultivation time input, on-farm income particularly from cropping activities, livestock husbandry, demographic characteristics, agricultural extension activities, and cultivation labour input. Hierarchical CA shows that households at the landscape level fall into about nine different types, with variation in spatial distribution. The analysis suggests that poor households do live near forested regions, and that the rural poor are more reliant on forest products than peri-urban populations. Regarding perceptions of forest cover change, the majority (70.1%: n = 375) of the respondents in the parishes think that there has been a decline in forest cover, and this percentage is larger than the percentage of non-respondents (18.9%), those that thought it had increased (5.6%), not changed (3.7%), and those that did not know (1.6%). In addition, perceptions on forest change were significantly related to the household livelihood typologies (X2 = 623.4, df = 4, p = 0.000): respondents who perceived forest cover as having declined and those that provided no response belonged to cluster 2 (“low income mixed farming households”), which is also the dominant livelihood typology around these forests. While the data largely suggest that there is a remarkable agreement between remote sensing results and local knowledge on forest change, and that local people may play a big role in filling data gaps where a dearth of information is prevalent (or where remote sensing evidence is fuzzy), there is a clear signal that people in different social classes and age groups can have very different views on what the change in forest cover might be despite what the remote sensing data show. This might have policy implications if decision makers tend to come from the groups that are not likely to have perceived forest cover change, or base their judgement on views from certain social classes. This implies that it is important to have the remote sensing data available as a counter balance to local perception (and vice versa) and therefore these data should be considered concurrently

Transcranial Doppler Ultrasound Detection of Microemboli as a Predictor of Cerebral Events in Patients with Symptomatic and Asymptomatic Carotid Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Identification of patients who will benefit from carotid endarterectomy is not entirely effective, primarily utilising degree of carotid stenosis. This study aimed at determining if microembolic signals (MES) detected by transcranial Doppler ultrasound (TCD) can provide clinically useful information regarding stroke risk in patients with carotid atherosclerosis. METHODS: A meta-analysis of prospective studies was performed. Three analyses were proposed investigating MES detection as a predictor of: stroke or TIA, stroke alone, and stroke or TIA but with an increased positivity threshold. Subgroup analysis was used to compare pre-operative (symptomatic or asymptomatic) patients and peri- or post-operative patients. RESULTS: Twenty-eight studies reported data regarding both MES status and neurological outcome. Of these, 22 papers reported data on stroke and TIA as an outcome, 19 on stroke alone, and eight on stroke and TIA with increased positivity threshold. At the median pre-test probability of 3.0%, the post-test probabilities of a stroke after a positive and negative TCD were 7.1% (95% CI 5-10.1) and 1.2% (95% CI 0.6-2.5), respectively. In addition, the sensitivities and specificities of each outcome showed that increasing the threshold for positivity to 10 MES per hour would make TCD a more clinically useful tool in peri- and post-operative patients. CONCLUSION: TCD provides clinically useful information about stroke risk for patients with carotid disease and is technically feasible in most patients. However, the generally weak level of evidence constituting this review means definitive recommendations cannot be made

China's energy-water nexus - assessment of the energy sector's compliance with the "3 Red Lines" industrial water policy

Increasing population and economic growth continue to drive China's demand for energy and water resources. The interaction of these resources is particularly important in China, where water resources are unevenly distributed, with limited availability in coal-rich regions. The “3 Red Lines” water policies were introduced in 2011; one of their aims is to reduce industrial water use, of which the energy sector is a part. This paper analyses current water withdrawals and consumption for all energy processes and assesses the sector's compliance with the industrial water policy under different scenarios, considering potential future policy and technological changes. The results show that future energy plans could conflict with the industrial water policy, but the amount of water used in the energy sector is highly dependant on technology choices, especially for power plant cooling. High electricity demand in the future is expected to be met mainly by coal and nuclear power, and planned inland development of nuclear power presents a new source of freshwater demand. Taking a holistic view of energy and water-for-energy enables the identification of co-benefits and trade-offs between energy and water policies that can facilitate the development of more compatible and sustainable energy and water plans.The authors would like to thank EPSRC and BP (Grant no. RG60538) for their funding support.This is the final published version. It first appeared at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421515001196#

Not all low-carbon energy pathways are environmentally "no-regrets" options

Energy system pathways which are projected to deliver minimum possible deployment cost, combined with low Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, are usually considered as ‘no-regrets’ options. However, the question remains whether such energy pathways present ‘no-regrets’ when also considering the wider environmental resource impacts, in particular those on land and water resources. This paper aims to determine whether the energy pathways of the UK’s Carbon Plan are environmental “no-regrets” options, defined in this study as simultaneously exhibiting low impact on land and water services resulting from resource appropriation for energy provision. This is accomplished by estimating the land area and water abstraction required by 2050 under the four pathways of the Carbon Plan with different scenarios for energy crop composition, yield, and power station locations. The outcomes are compared with defined limits for sustainable land appropriation and water abstraction. The results show that of the four Carbon Plan pathways, only the “Higher Renewables, more energy efficiency” pathway is an environmental “no-regrets” option, and that is only if deployment of power stations inland is limited. The study shows that policies for future low-carbon energy systems should be developed with awareness of wider environmental impacts. Failing to do this could lead to a setback in achieving GHG emission reductions goals, because of unforeseen additional competition between the energy sector and demand for land and water services in other sectors.This work has been funded by Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) through the Whole System Energy Modelling (wholeSEM) consortium. EPSRC Grant number EP/K039326/1This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.10.00

Importance of food-demand management for climate mitigation

Recent studies show that current trends in yield improvement will not be sufficient to meet projected global food demand in 2050, and suggest that a further expansion of agricultural area will be required. However, agriculture is the main driver of losses of biodiversity and a major contributor to climate change and pollution, and so further expansion is undesirable. The usual proposed alternative - intensification with increased resource use - also has negative effects. It is therefore imperative to find ways to achieve global food security without expanding crop or pastureland and without increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Some authors have emphasised a role for sustainable intensification in closing global 'yield gaps' between the currently realised and potentially achievable yields. However, in this paper we use a transparent, data-driven model, to show that even if yield gaps are closed, the projected demand will drive further agricultural expansion. There are, however, options for reduction on the demand side that are rarely considered. In the second part of this paper we quantify the potential for demand-side mitigation options, and show that improved diets and decreases in food waste are essential to deliver emissions reductions, and to provide global food security in 2050.This work was funded by a grant to the University of Cambridge from BP as part of their Energy Sustainability Challenge.This is the accepted manuscript version. The final version is available from Nature Climate Change at http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2353.html

Land use implications of future energy system trajectories-The case of the UK 2050 Carbon Plan

The UK's 2008 Climate Change Act sets a legally binding target for reducing territorial greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050, relative to 1990 levels. Four pathways to achieve this target have been developed by the Department of Energy and Climate Change, with all pathways requiring increased us of bioenergy. A significant amount of this could be indigenously sourced from crops, but will increased domestic production of energy crops conflict with other agricultural priorities? To address this question, a coupled analysis of the UK energy system and land use has been developed. The two systems are connected by the production of bioenergy, and are projected forwards in time under the energy pathways, accounting for various constraints on land use for agriculture and ecosystem services. The results show different combinations of crop yield and compositions for the pathways lead to the appropriation of between 7 and 61% of UK's agricultural land for bioenergy production. This could result in competition for land for food production and other land uses, as well as indirect land use change in other countries due to an increase in bioenergy imports. Consequently, the potential role of bioenergy in achieving UK emissions reduction targets may face significant deployment challenges.This work has been funded by ESPRC through the Whole System Energy Modelling (wholeSEM) consortium. EPSRC Grant number EP/K039326/1.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.07.00

Patient symptom experience prior to a diagnosis of oesophageal or gastric cancer: a multi-methods study.

BACKGROUND: Late stage diagnosis of oesophageal and gastric cancer is common, which limits treatment options and contributes to poor survival. AIM: To explore patients' understanding, experience and presentation of symptoms before a diagnosis of oesophageal or gastric cancer. DESIGN & SETTING: Between May 2016 and October 2017, all patients newly diagnosed with oesophageal or gastric cancer were identified at weekly multidisciplinary team meetings at two large hospitals in England. A total of 321 patients were invited to participate in a survey and secondary care medical record review; 127 (40%) participants responded (102 patients had oesophageal cancer and 25 had gastric cancer). Of these, 26 participated in an additional face-to-face interview. METHOD: Survey and medical record data were analysed descriptively. Interviews were analysed using thematic analysis, informed by the Model of Pathways to Treatment. RESULTS: Participants experienced multiple symptoms before diagnosis. The most common symptom associated with oesophageal cancer was dysphagia (n = 66, 65%); for gastric cancer, fatigue or tiredness (n = 20, 80%) was the most common symptom. Understanding of heartburn, reflux and indigestion, and associated symptoms differed between participants and often contrasted with clinical perspectives. Bodily changes attributed to personal and/or lifestyle factors were self-managed, with presentation to primary care prompted when symptoms persisted, worsened, or impacted daily life, or were notably severe or unusual. Participants rarely presented all symptoms at the initial consultation. CONCLUSION: The patient interval may be lengthened by misinterpretation of key terms, such as heartburn, or misattribution or non-recognition of important bodily changes. Clearly defined symptom awareness messages may encourage earlier help-seeking, while eliciting symptom experience and meanings in primary care consultations could prompt earlier referral and diagnosis.This research was funded by the Medical Research Council and the Raymond and Beverly Sackler Fund as part of EH’s PhD. FMW was supported by an NIHR Clinician Scientist award. JDE was supported by an NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship. JB was supported by the National Institute for Health Research School for Primary Care Research

Remotely acting SMCHD1 gene regulatory elements: in silico prediction and identification of potential regulatory variants in patients with FSHD

Background: Facioscapulohumeral dystrophy (FSHD) is commonly associated with contraction of the D4Z4 macro-satellite repeat on chromosome 4q35 (FSHD1) or mutations in the SMCHD1 gene (FSHD2). Recent studies have shown that the clinical manifestation of FSHD1 can be modified by mutations in the SMCHD1 gene within a given family. The absence of either D4Z4 contraction or SMCHD1 mutations in a small cohort of patients suggests that the disease could also be due to disruption of gene regulation. In this study, we postulated that mutations responsible for exerting a modifier effect on FSHD might reside within remotely acting regulatory elements that have the potential to interact at a distance with their cognate gene promoter via chromatin looping. To explore this postulate, genome-wide Hi-C data were used to identify genomic fragments displaying the strongest interaction with the SMCHD1 gene. These fragments were then narrowed down to shorter regions using ENCODE and FANTOM data on transcription factor binding sites and epigenetic marks characteristic of promoters, enhancers and silencers