The (Non)Performance Of Kiplinger?s Expert Recommendations

We examine the performance of 1,572 stock recommendations published over the past 10 years by Kiplinger’s Personal Finance magazine.  Kiplinger’s picks earned a risk-adjusted mean abnormal monthly return of -2.58% over the 6-month post-pick period.  Our analysis indicates that the recommended firms were larger than average, and that the non-risk-adjusted returns of these stocks exceeded market returns prior to being selected.  The poor post-pick performance cannot be attributed to a small subset of stocks or to a particular time frame.  Instead, the experts appear to significantly underperform throughout much of the period examined.  Our findings suggest that the experts of some popular investment periodicals may bias their analyses in favor of hot stocks to appeal to the interests of naïve subscribers

Predicting First-Year Returns Of Health Care IPOs

Prior empirical work shows that IPOs generally earn positive excess first-day returns yet subsequently underperform. Many researchers examine the determinants of post-first-day IPO success, however, these studies do not test for first-year IPO return predictability due to unavailability of pre-IPO data with which to predict first-year performance. In this study we utilize strictly pre-IPO financial data manually obtained from corporate IPO registrations to predict the first-year post-IPO performance of health care firms. We do so by utilizing firm size, free cash flows, discretionary accruals, and Altman’s Z. Results suggest that each metric is a significant determinant of first-year raw cumulative and excess cumulative returns, and we are able to reliably identify which firms will be in the top and bottom performance quartiles 30 days, 6 months, and 12 months after the IPO

A randomized, placebo-controlled, phase II study of obeticholic acid for primary sclerosing cholangitis

n/

Exenatide once weekly treatment maintained improvements in glycemic control and weight loss over 2 years

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The once-weekly (QW) formulation of the glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist exenatide has been demonstrated to improve A1C, fasting plasma glucose (FPG), body weight, serum lipid profiles, and blood pressure in patients with type 2 diabetes through 52 weeks of treatment. In this report, we describe the 2-year results of the open-label, open-ended extension to the DURATION-1 trial of exenatide QW for type 2 diabetes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A 2-stage protocol was used: patients received either exenatide QW (2 mg) or exenatide twice daily for 30 weeks (5 μg for the first 4 weeks and 10 μg thereafter), followed by 1.5 years of treatment with exenatide QW (2 mg), for a total of 2 years (104 weeks) of exenatide treatment. Of the 295 (intent-to-treat [ITT]) patients who entered the trial, 73% (n = 216) completed 2 years of treatment (completer population). Baseline characteristics (mean ± SE) for these patients were: A1C, 8.2 ± 0.1%; FPG, 168.4 ± 43.0 mg/dL; body weight, 101.1 ± 18.7 kg; and diabetes duration, 7 ± 5 years.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the completer population, significant improvements (LS mean ± SE [95% CI]) were maintained after 2 years of treatment in A1C (-1.71 ± 0.08% [-1.86 to -1.55%]), FPG (-40.1 ± 2.9 mg/dL [-45.7 to -34.5 mg/dL]), and body weight (-2.61 ± 0.52 kg [-3.64 to -1.58 kg]) compared with baseline. The percentages of patients who achieved an A1C of <7.0% and ≤6.5% at 2 years were 60% and 39%, respectively. A significant reduction in systolic blood pressure (SBP; -3.0 ± 1.0 mmHg [-4.9 to -1.1 mmHg]) was maintained through 2 years of treatment. Serum lipid profiles were also significantly improved, including triglycerides (geometric LS mean change from baseline, -15 ± 2.7% [-21% to -10%]), total cholesterol (-8.6 ± 2.8 mg/dL [-14.0 to -3.1 mg/dL]), and low-density lipoproteins (-4.5 ± 2.2 mg/dL [-8.9 to -0.01 mg/dL]). Changes in A1C, body weight, FPG, SBP, and lipids in the ITT population were similar to those seen in the completer population. Nausea (predominantly mild in intensity) was the most common adverse event, although the frequency and intensity of nausea decreased over time. No severe hypoglycemia was observed.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Exenatide QW was well tolerated during the 2-year treatment period. This study demonstrated sustained glucose control and weight loss throughout 2 years of treatment with exenatide QW.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00308139">NCT00308139</a></p

The value of SmartMoney's stock recommendations

We examine the value of expert picks published by SmartMoney, a popular investment periodical. Most can be described as 'hot' stocks - those that have experienced run-ups in price before publication. However, these stocks subsequently underperform the market by 0.45% per month in the 6-month post-publication period. We also observe that market risk-adjusted abnormal returns (AR) are -1.18% per month over the same time period, which is significantly below expectations. Results suggest SmartMoney's recommendations have negative value to its subscribers.