Belief bias and representation in assessing the Bayesian rationality of others

People often assess the reasonableness of another person’s judgments. When doing so, the evaluator should set aside knowledge that would not have been available to the evaluatee to assess whether the evaluatee made a reasonable decision, given the available information. But under what circumstances does the evaluator set aside information? On the one hand, if the evaluator fails to set aside prior information, not available to the evaluatee, they exhibit belief bias. But on the other hand, when Bayesian inference is called for, the evaluator should generally incorporate prior knowledge about relevant probabilities in decision making. The present research integrated these two perspectives in two experiments. Participants were asked to take the perspective of a fictitious evaluatee and to evaluate the reasonableness of the evaluatee’s decision. The participant was privy to information that the fictitious evaluatee did not have. Specifically, the participant knew whether the evaluatee’s decision judgment was factually correct. Participants’ judgments were biased (Experiments 1 and 2) by the factuality of the conclusion as they assessed the evaluatee’s reasonableness. We also found that the format of information presentation (Experiment 2) influenced the degree to which participants’ reasonableness ratings were responsive to the evaluatee’s Bayesian rationality. Specifically, responsivity was greater when the information was presented in an icon-based, graphical, natural-frequency format than when presented in either a numerical natural-frequency format or a probability format. We interpreted the effects of format to suggest that graphical presentation can help organize information into nested sets, which in turn enhances Bayesian rationality

Antisense Mapping of the MOR-1 Opioid Receptor Clone: Modulation of Hyperphagia Induced by DAMGO 1

ABSTRACT The mu opioid receptor mediates ingestive behavior: muselective agonists stimulate food intake and antagonists reduce intake in many ingestive situations. Antisense oligodeoxynucleotides directed against each of the four exons of the MOR-1 clone were equally effective in reducing spontaneous food intake and body weight in rats. However, antisense probes directed against only exon 1 or 4 of the MOR-1 clone reduced mu-mediated analgesia. The present study examined whether central administration of antisense probes directed against each of the four exons of the MOR-1 clone or a missense control altered hyperphagia elicited by the mu agonist DAMGO across a range of doses. Antisense probes directed against only exon 1 or 4 blocked hyperphagia at agonist doses of 0.5 and 1.0 g; this pattern was identical to that observed for mu-mediated analgesia. A missense control failed to exert significant effects, which suggests specificity of antisense actions. The effective antisense probes failed to reduce hyperphagia at a higher (5 g) agonist dose, a result consistent with limitations in down-regulation of receptor proteins by antisense. The mu antagonist ␤-funaltrexamine produced a similar pattern of effects on mu-mediated hyperphagia. The selective actions of antisense probes directed against different exons of the MOR-1 clone in reducing hyperphagia induced by DAMGO suggest that multiple splice variants of the MOR-1 clone exist and raise the possibility of further opioid receptor subclassifications

Individual common variants exert weak effects on the risk for autism spectrum disorders.

While it is apparent that rare variation can play an important role in the genetic architecture of autism spectrum disorders (ASDs), the contribution of common variation to the risk of developing ASD is less clear. To produce a more comprehensive picture, we report Stage 2 of the Autism Genome Project genome-wide association study, adding 1301 ASD families and bringing the total to 2705 families analysed (Stages 1 and 2). In addition to evaluating the association of individual single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we also sought evidence that common variants, en masse, might affect the risk. Despite genotyping over a million SNPs covering the genome, no single SNP shows significant association with ASD or selected phenotypes at a genome-wide level. The SNP that achieves the smallest P-value from secondary analyses is rs1718101. It falls in CNTNAP2, a gene previously implicated in susceptibility for ASD. This SNP also shows modest association with age of word/phrase acquisition in ASD subjects, of interest because features of language development are also associated with other variation in CNTNAP2. In contrast, allele scores derived from the transmission of common alleles to Stage 1 cases significantly predict case status in the independent Stage 2 sample. Despite being significant, the variance explained by these allele scores was small (Vm< 1%). Based on results from individual SNPs and their en masse effect on risk, as inferred from the allele score results, it is reasonable to conclude that common variants affect the risk for ASD but their individual effects are modest

Increasing walking in patients with intermittent claudication: Protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: People with intermittent claudication are at increased risk of death from heart attack and stroke compared to matched controls. Surgery for intermittent claudication is for symptom management and does not reduce the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Increasing physical activity can reduce claudication symptoms and may improve cardiovascular health. This paper presents the pilot study protocol for a randomised controlled trial to test whether a brief psychological intervention leads to increased physical activity, improvement in quality of life, and a reduction in the demand for surgery, for patients with intermittent claudication. Methods/Design: We aim to recruit 60 patients newly diagnosed with intermittent claudication, who will be randomised into two groups. The control group will receive usual care, and the treatment group will receive usual care and a brief 2-session psychological intervention to modify illness and walking beliefs and develop a walking action plan. The primary outcome will be walking, measured by pedometer. Secondary outcomes will include quality of life and uptake of surgery for symptom management. Participants will be followed up after (a) 4 months, (b) 1 year and (c) 2 years. Discussion: This study will assess the acceptability and efficacy of a brief psychological intervention to increase walking in patients with intermittent claudication, both in terms of the initiation, and maintenance of behaviour change. This is a pilot study, and the results will inform the design of a larger multi-centre trial. Trial Registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN2805187

Applying neighbourhood classification systems to natural hazards: a case study of Mt Vesuvius

The dynamic forces of urbanisation that characterised much of the 20th Century and still dominate population growth in developing countries have led to the increasing risk of natural hazards in cities around the world (Chester 2000, Pelling 2003). None of these physical dangers is more tangible than the threat volcanoes pose to the large populations living in close proximity. Vesuvius, a recognised decade volcano following the UN’s International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) has an estimated 550,000 people that live in areas susceptible to Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDC) (Barberi 2008) and a further 4 million at risk from ash fallout around the sprawling suburbs of Naples. Though quiescent since 1944, the prospect of a large eruption of Vesuvius presents a greater geophysical threat to the Campania region of Italy than perhaps ever before. With the Neopolitan region at risk from such an event, this paper proposes a new methodology for creating a Social Vulnerability Index (SoVi) using geodemographic classification systems. In this study, Experian’s MOSAIC Italy database is combined with geophysical risk boundaries to assess the overall vulnerability of the population around Vesuvius

Enhancing studies of the connectome in autism using the autism brain imaging data exchange II

The second iteration of the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange (ABIDE II) aims to enhance the scope of brain connectomics research in Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). Consistent with the initial ABIDE effort (ABIDE I), that released 1112 datasets in 2012, this new multisite open-data resource is an aggregate of resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and corresponding structural MRI and phenotypic datasets. ABIDE II includes datasets from an additional 487 individuals with ASD and 557 controls previously collected across 16 international institutions. The combination of ABIDE I and ABIDE II provides investigators with 2156 unique cross-sectional datasets allowing selection of samples for discovery and/or replication. This sample size can also facilitate the identification of neurobiological subgroups, as well as preliminary examinations of sex differences in ASD. Additionally, ABIDE II includes a range of psychiatric variables to inform our understanding of the neural correlates of co-occurring psychopathology; 284 diffusion imaging datasets are also included. It is anticipated that these enhancements will contribute to unraveling key sources of ASD heterogeneity

Promotoras as Mental Health Practitioners in Primary Care: A Multi-Method Study of an Intervention to Address Contextual Sources of Depression

We assessed the role of promotoras—briefly trained community health workers—in depression care at community health centers. The intervention focused on four contextual sources of depression in underserved, low-income communities: underemployment, inadequate housing, food insecurity, and violence. A multi-method design included quantitative and ethnographic techniques to study predictors of depression and the intervention’s impact. After a structured training program, primary care practitioners (PCPs) and promotoras collaboratively followed a clinical algorithm in which PCPs prescribed medications and/or arranged consultations by mental health professionals and promotoras addressed the contextual sources of depression. Based on an intake interview with 464 randomly recruited patients, 120 patients with depression were randomized to enhanced care plus the promotora contextual intervention, or to enhanced care alone. All four contextual problems emerged as strong predictors of depression (chi square, p < .05); logistic regression revealed housing and food insecurity as the most important predictors (odds ratios both 2.40, p < .05). Unexpected challenges arose in the intervention’s implementation, involving infrastructure at the health centers, boundaries of the promotoras’ roles, and “turf” issues with medical assistants. In the quantitative assessment, the intervention did not lead to statistically significant improvements in depression (odds ratio 4.33, confidence interval overlapping 1). Ethnographic research demonstrated a predominantly positive response to the intervention among stakeholders, including patients, promotoras, PCPs, non-professional staff workers, administrators, and community advisory board members. Due to continuing unmet mental health needs, we favor further assessment of innovative roles for community health workers