Is income becoming more polarized Italy? A closer look with a distributional approach

During the 1990’s and the early 2000’s income inequality in Italy shows levels higher than many other OECD countries, not displaying any significant trend, upward or downward. This evidence relies essentially on summary measures of inequality, which may not capture aspects of the whole income probability density, such as multi-modalities and polarization. This paper applies a non-parametric tool, the “relative distribution”, to describe patterns of changes on the entire Italian household income distribution over the period 1989–2006. Furthermore, this approach also allows us to decompose the relative density into changes in location and changes in shape, in order to emphasize whether income distribution becomes more polarized or exhibits patterns of convergence toward middle income classes. A similar decomposition enables us to analyze the impact of selected covariates on income distribution. During the period Italy experienced a significant increase of household income polarization, which has particularly affected incomes below the median. In addition, this relative polarization is mainly correlated to changes in the returns to household-head occupational status.Income distribution, Relative Distribution, Polarization

The drivers of happiness inequality: Suggestions for promoting social cohesion

The goal of this paper is to identify and quantify the contribution of a set of covariates in affecting levels and over time changes of happiness inequality. We make use of a recent methodology that allows decomposing the overall change in happiness inequality into composition and coefficient effects of each covariate. We focus on the increase in happiness inequality observed in Germany between 1991 and 2007 in the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) database, deriving the following findings. First, trends in happiness inequality are mainly driven by composition effects, while coefficient effects are negligible. Second, among composition effects, education has an inequality-reducing impact, while changes in labour market conditions and demographic composition contribute to explain the rise in happiness inequality. Third, the increase in income inequality cannot be considered as a driver of the increase in happiness inequality. A clear cut policy implication of our paper is that policies enhancing education and labour market performance are crucial to reduce happiness inequality and the potential social tensions arising from it.happiness inequality, income inequality, education, decomposition methods

Why has happiness inequality increased? Suggestions for promoting social cohesion

The paper focuses on happiness inequality, an issue rather neglected in the literature. We analyze the increase in happiness inequality observed in Germany between 1991 and 2007 by means of the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) database. We make use of a recent methodology that allows decomposing the change in happiness inequality into the composition and the coefficient effect for each covariate. We find that the increase in happiness inequality is mainly driven by changes in the composition of covariates, while coefficient effect is negligible, i.e., returns from happiness “fundamentals” are stable over time. Among composition effect, the rise in happiness inequality is explained –among others- by labour market conditions. Furthermore, the increase in education levels has an inequality-reducing impact on happiness. One clear cut policy implication of our paper is that policies enhancing education and labour market performance are crucial to reduce happiness inequality and the potential social tensions arising from it.happiness inequality, education, income inequality, labour market performance.

Does regional cost-of-living reshuffle Italian income distribution?

This paper examines how spatial price differentials affect income distribution in Italy. The distribution of household income is “reshuffled” after controlling for the purchasing power of households residents in different regions, but only when housing price variations are included in the PPP index. Poor households living in Southern Italy alleviate their relative condition, but concentration of poverty still holds in the Southern part of the country.Income distribution, inequality, regional purchasing power parity, Italy.

Measures of poverty and inequality in the countries and regions of EU

The European Union Survey on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) is the main source of information about living standards and poverty in the member states of the European Union. It provides reliable statistics at national level but sample sizes do not allow reliable estimates at sub-national level, despite a rising demand from policy makers and local authorities. We provide a comprehensive map of median income, inequality (Gini coefficient and Lorenz curve) and poverty (poverty rates), at country and regional levels, based on the equivalized household income in all the countries in which EU-SILC is conducted. We focus on personal income distribution within regions as opposed to per capita income distribution across regions to give a deeper insight into regional disparities. Small-area estimation is applied to improve estimates in regions with small sample size. Uncertainty of such complex non-linear statistics is assessed by bootstrap methods. Household-level sampling weights are taken into account in both the estimates and their relative bootstrapped standard errors.European regional economics measurement; EU-SILC; Gini coefficient; Poverty rates; Small-area estimation.

GARCH-based robust clustering of time series

3nopartially_openIn this paper we propose different robust fuzzy clustering models for classifying heteroskedastic (volatility) time series, following the so-called model-based approach to time series clustering and using a partitioning around medoids procedure. The proposed models are based on a GARCH parametric modelingof the time series, i.e. the unconditional volatility and the time-varying volatility GARCH representation of the time series. We first suggest a timid robustification of the fuzzy clustering. Then, we propose three robust fuzzy clustering models belonging to the so-called metric, noise and trimmed approaches, respectively. Each model neutralizes the negative effects of the outliers in the clustering process in a different manner. In particular, the first robust model, based on the metric approach, achieves its robustness with respect to outliers by taking into account a “robust” distance measure; the second, based on the noise approach, achieves its robustness by introducing a noise cluster represented by a noise prototype; the third, based on the trimmed approach, achieves its robustness by trimming away a certain fraction of outlying time series. The usefulness and effectiveness of the proposed clustering models is illustrated by means of a simulation study and two applications in finance and economics.embargoed_20180131De Giovanni, Livia; D'Urso, Pierpaolo; Massari, RiccardoDE GIOVANNI, Livia; D'Urso, Pierpaolo; Massari, Riccard

Current Strategies and Novel Therapeutic Approaches for Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma

Urothelial carcinoma (UC) is a frequent cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Metastatic UC has been historically associated with poor prognosis, with a median overall survival of approximately 15 months and a 5-year survival rate of 18%. Although platinum-based chemotherapy remains the mainstay of medical treatment for patients with metastatic UC, chemotherapy clinical trials produced modest benefit with short-lived, disappointing responses. In recent years, the better understanding of the role of immune system in cancer control has led to the development and approval of several immunotherapeutic approaches in UC therapy, where immune checkpoint inhibitors have been revolutionizing the treatment of metastatic UC. Because of a better tumor molecular profiling, FGFR inhibitors, PARP inhibitors, anti-HER2 agents, and antibody drug conjugates targeting Nectin-4 are also emerging as new therapeutic options. Moreover, a wide number of trials is ongoing with the aim to evaluate several other alterations and pathways as new potential targets in metastatic UC. In this review, we will discuss the recent advances and highlight future directions of the medical treatment of UC, with a particular focus on recently published data and ongoing active and recruiting trials

Survival of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in Northern Italy: A Population-Based Cohort Study by the ITA-COVID-19 Network

Introduction: COVID-19 case fatality rate in hospitalized patients varies across countries and studies. Reliable estimates, specific for age, sex, and comorbidities, are needed to monitor the epidemic, to compare the outcome in different settings, and to correctly design trials for COVID-19 interventions. The aim of this study was to provide population-based survival curves of hospitalized COVID-19 patients.Materials and Methods: A cohort study was conducted in three areas of Northern Italy, heavily affected by SARS-CoV-2 infection (Lombardy and Veneto Regions, and Reggio Emilia province), using a loco-regional COVID-19 surveillance system, linked to hospital discharge databases. We included all patients testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA by RT-PCR on nasopharyngeal/throat swab samples who were hospitalized from 21 February to 21 April 2020. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates were calculated at 14 and 30 days for death in any setting, stratifying by age, sex, and the Charlson Index.Results: Overall, 42,926 hospitalized COVID-19 patients were identified. Patients' median age was 69 years (IQR: 57-79), 62.6% were males, and 6.0% had a Charlson Index >= 3. Survival curves showed that 22.0% (95% CI 21.6-22.4) of patients died within 14 days and 27.6% (95% CI 27.2-28.1) within 30 days from hospitalization. Survival was higher in younger patients and in females. The negative impact of comorbidities on survival was more pronounced in younger age groups.Conclusion: The high fatality rate observed in the study (28% at 30 days) suggests that studies should focus on death as primary endpoint during a follow-up of at least one month