Shuttle Shortfalls and Lessons Learned for the Sustainment of Human Space Exploration

Much debate and national soul searching has taken place over the value of the Space Shuttle which first flew in 1981 and which is currently scheduled to be retired in 2010. Originally developed post-Saturn Apollo to emphasize affordability and safety, the reusable Space Shuttle instead came to be perceived as economically unsustainable and lacking the technology maturity to assure safe, routine access to low earth orbit (LEO). After the loss of two crews, aboard Challenger and Columbia, followed by the decision to retire the system in 2010, it is critical that this three decades worth of human space flight experience be well understood. Understanding of the past is imperative to further those goals for which the Space Shuttle was a stepping-stone in the advancement of knowledge. There was significant reduction in life cycle costs between the Saturn Apollo and the Space Shuttle. However, the advancement in life cycle cost reduction from Saturn Apollo to the Space Shuttle fell far short of its goal. This paper will explore the reasons for this shortfall. Shortfalls and lessons learned can be categorized as related to design factors, at the architecture, element and sub-system levels, as well as to programmatic factors, in terms of goals, requirements, management and organization. Additionally, no review of the Space Shuttle program and attempt to take away key lessons would be complete without a strategic review. That is, how do national space goals drive future space transportation development strategies? The lessons of the Space Shuttle are invaluable in all respects - technical, as in design, program-wise, as in organizational approach and goal setting, and strategically, within the context of the generational march toward an expanded human presence in space. Beyond lessons though (and the innumerable papers, anecdotes and opinions published on this topic) this paper traces tangible, achievable steps, derived from the Space Shuttle program experience, that must be a part of any 2l century initiatives furthering a growing human presence beyond earth

The Need for Technology Maturity of Any Advanced Capability to Achieve Better Life Cycle Cost (LCC)

Programs such as space transportation systems are developed and deployed only rarely, and they have long development schedules and large development and life cycle costs (LCC). They have not historically had their LCC predicted well and have only had an effort to control the DDT&E phase of the programs. One of the factors driving the predictability, and thus control, of the LCC of a program is the maturity of the technologies incorporated in the program. If the technologies incorporated are less mature (as measured by their Technology Readiness Level - TRL), then the LCC not only increases but the degree of increase is difficult to predict. Consequently, new programs avoid incorporating technologies unless they are quite mature, generally TRL greater than or equal to 7 (system prototype demonstrated in a space environment) to allow better predictability of the DDT&E phase costs unless there is no alternative. On the other hand, technology development programs rarely develop technologies beyond TRL 6 (system/subsystem model or prototype demonstrated in a relevant environment). Currently the lack of development funds beyond TRL 6 and the major funding required for full scale development leave little or no funding available to prototype TRL 6 concepts so that hardware would be in the ready mode for safe, reliable and cost effective incorporation. The net effect is that each new program either incorporates little new technology or has longer development schedules and costs, and higher LCC, than planned. This paper presents methods to ensure that advanced technologies are incorporated into future programs while providing a greater accuracy of predicting their LCC. One method is having a dedicated organization to develop X-series vehicles or separate prototypes carried on other vehicles. The question of whether such an organization should be independent of NASA and/or have an independent funding source is discussed. Other methods are also discussed. How to make the choice of which technologies to pursue to the prototype level is also discussed since, to achieve better LCC, first the selection of the appropriate technologies

Propulsion System Choices and Their Implications

In defining a space vehicle architecture, the propulsion system and related subsystem choices will have a major influence on achieving the goals and objectives desired. There are many alternatives and the choices made must produce a system that meets the performance requirements, but at the same time also provide the greatest opportunity of reaching all of the required objectives. Recognizing the above, the SPST Functional Requirements subteam has drawn on the knowledge, expertise, and experience of its members, to develop insight that wiIJ effectively aid the architectural concept developer in making the appropriate choices consistent with the architecture goals. This data not only identifies many selected choices, but also, more importantly, presents the collective assessment of this subteam on the "pros" and the "cons" of these choices. The propulsion system choices with their pros and cons are presented in five major groups. A. System Integration Approach. Focused on the requirement for safety, reliability, dependability, maintainability, and low cost. B. Non-Chemical Propulsion. Focused on choice of propulsion type. C. Chemical Propulsion. Focused on propellant choice implications. D. Functional Integration. Focused on the degree of integration of the many propulsive and closely associated functions, and on the choice of the engine combustion power cycle. E. Thermal Management. Focused on propellant tank insulation and integration. Each of these groups is further broken down into subgroups, and at that level the consensus pros and cons are presented. The intended use of this paper is to provide a resource of focused material for architectural concept developers to use in designing new advanced systems including college design classes. It is also a possible source of input material for developing a model for designing and analyzing advanced concepts to help identify focused technology needs and their priorities

Concepts for Life Cycle Cost Control Required to Achieve Space Transportation Affordability and Sustainability

Cost control must be implemented through the establishment of requirements and controlled continually by managing to these requirements. Cost control of the non-recurring side of life cycle cost has traditionally been implemented in both commercial and government programs. The government uses the budget process to implement this control. The commercial approach is to use a similar process of allocating the non-recurring cost to major elements of the program. This type of control generally manages through a work breakdown structure (WBS) by defining the major elements of the program. If the cost control is to be applied across the entire program life cycle cost (LCC), the approach must be addressed very differently. A functional breakdown structure (FBS) is defined and recommended. Use of a FBS provides the visibifity to allow the choice of an integrated solution reducing the cost of providing many different elements of like function. The different functional solutions that drive the hardware logistics, quantity of documentation, operational labor, reliability and maintainability balance, and total integration of the entire system from DDT&E through the life of the program must be fully defined, compared, and final decisions made among these competing solutions. The major drivers of recurring cost have been identified and are presented and discussed. The LCC requirements must be established and flowed down to provide control of LCC. This LCC control will require a structured rigid process similar to the one traditionally used to control weight/performance for space transportation systems throughout the entire program. It has been demonstrated over the last 30 years that without a firm requirement and methodically structured cost control, it is unlikely that affordable and sustainable space transportation system LCC will be achieved

Advanced Space Transportation Concepts and Propulsion Technologies for a New Delivery Paradigm

This paper describes Advanced Space Transportation Concepts and Propulsion Technologies for a New Delivery Paradigm. It builds on the work of the previous paper "Approach to an Affordable and Productive Space Transportation System". The scope includes both flight and ground system elements, and focuses on their compatibility and capability to achieve a technical solution that is operationally productive and also affordable. A clear and revolutionary approach, including advanced propulsion systems (advanced LOX rich booster engine concept having independent LOX and fuel cooling systems, thrust augmentation with LOX rich boost and fuel rich operation at altitude), improved vehicle concepts (autogeneous pressurization, turbo alternator for electric power during ascent, hot gases to purge system and keep moisture out), and ground delivery systems, was examined. Previous papers by the authors and other members of the Space Propulsion Synergy Team (SPST) focused on space flight system engineering methods, along with operationally efficient propulsion system concepts and technologies. This paper continues the previous work by exploring the propulsion technology aspects in more depth and how they may enable the vehicle designs from the previous paper. Subsequent papers will explore the vehicle design, the ground support system, and the operations aspects of the new delivery paradigm in greater detail

KELT-10b: The First Transiting Exoplanet from the KELT-South Survey -- A Hot Sub-Jupiter Transiting a V = 10.7 Early G-Star

We report the discovery of KELT-10b, the first transiting exoplanet discovered using the KELT-South telescope. KELT-10b is a highly inflated sub-Jupiter mass planet transiting a relatively bright $V = 10.7$ star (TYC 8378-64-1), with T$_{eff}$ = $5948\pm74$ K, $\log{g}$ = $4.319_{-0.030}^{+0.020}$ and [Fe/H] = $0.09_{-0.10}^{+0.11}$, an inferred mass M$_{*}$ = $1.112_{-0.061}^{+0.055}$ M$_{\odot}$ and radius R$_{*}$ = $1.209_{-0.035}^{+0.047}$ R$_{\odot}$. The planet has a radius R$_{P}$ = $1.399_{-0.049}^{+0.069}$ R$_{J}$ and mass M$_{P}$ = $0.679_{-0.038}^{+0.039}$ M$_{J}$. The planet has an eccentricity consistent with zero and a semi-major axis $a$ = $0.05250_{-0.00097}^{+0.00086}$ AU. The best fitting linear ephemeris is $T_{0}$ = 2457066.72045$\pm$0.00027 BJD$_{TDB}$ and P = 4.1662739$\pm$0.0000063 days. This planet joins a group of highly inflated transiting exoplanets with a radius much larger and a mass much less than those of Jupiter. The planet, which boasts deep transits of 1.4%, has a relatively high equilibrium temperature of T$_{eq}$ = $1377_{-23}^{+28}$ K, assuming zero albedo and perfect heat redistribution. KELT-10b receives an estimated insolation of $0.817_{-0.054}^{+0.068}$ $\times$ 10$^9$ erg s$^{-1}$ cm$^{-2}$, which places it far above the insolation threshold above which hot Jupiters exhibit increasing amounts of radius inflation. Evolutionary analysis of the host star suggests that KELT-10b is unlikely to survive beyond the current subgiant phase, due to a concomitant in-spiral of the planet over the next $\sim$1 Gyr. The planet transits a relatively bright star and exhibits the third largest transit depth of all transiting exoplanets with V $<$ 11 in the southern hemisphere, making it a promising candidate for future atmospheric characterization studies.Comment: 20 pages, 13 figures, 7 tables, accepted for publication in MNRA

Prospective Evaluation of Pregnancy-Associated Plasma Protein-A and Outcomes in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndromes

ObjectivesThis study sought to investigate whether pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) is useful for risk assessment in non–ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS).BackgroundPAPP-A is a high molecular weight, zinc-binding metalloproteinase that is associated with vulnerable plaque and may be a predictor of cardiovascular disease and mortality.MethodsWe measured PAPP-A at baseline in 3,782 patients with non NSTE-ACS randomized to ranolazine or placebo in the MERLIN–TIMI 36 (Metabolic Efficiency With Ranolazine for Less Ischemia in Non-ST Elevation Acute Coronary Syndromes) trial and followed for an average of 1 year. A cut point of 6.0 μIU/ml was chosen from pilot work in this cohort.ResultsPAPP-A >6.0 μIU/ml at presentation was associated with higher rates of cardiovascular death (CVD) or myocardial infarction (MI) at 30 days (7.4% vs. 3.7%, hazard ratio [HR]: 2.01; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43 to 2.82; p < 0.001) and at 1 year (14.9% vs. 9.7%, HR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.29 to 2.05; p < 0.001). PAPP-A was also associated with higher rates of CVD (HR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.07 to 3.52, p = 0.027) and myocardial infarction (HR: 1.82; 95% CI: 1.22 to 2.71, p = 0.003) individually at 30 days. There was no difference in the risk associated with PAPP-A stratified by baseline cardiac troponin I [Accu-TnI >0.04 μg/l], p interaction = 0.87). After adjustment for cardiac troponin I, ST-segment deviation, age, sex, diabetes, smoking, hypertension, and coronary artery disease, PAPP-A was independently associated with CVD/myocardial infarction at 30 days (adjusted HR: 1.62, 95% CI: 1.15 to 2.29; p = 0.006) and 1 year (adjusted HR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.07 to 1.71; p = 0.012). PAPP-A also improved the net reclassification for CVD/MI (p = 0.003). There was no significant interaction with ranolazine.ConclusionsPAPP-A was independently associated with recurrent cardiovascular events in patients with NSTE-ACS. This finding supports PAPP-A as a candidate prognostic marker in patients with ACS and supports investigation of its therapeutic implications

Weak lensing, dark matter and dark energy

Weak gravitational lensing is rapidly becoming one of the principal probes of dark matter and dark energy in the universe. In this brief review we outline how weak lensing helps determine the structure of dark matter halos, measure the expansion rate of the universe, and distinguish between modified gravity and dark energy explanations for the acceleration of the universe. We also discuss requirements on the control of systematic errors so that the systematics do not appreciably degrade the power of weak lensing as a cosmological probe.Comment: Invited review article for the GRG special issue on gravitational lensing (P. Jetzer, Y. Mellier and V. Perlick Eds.). V3: subsection on three-point function and some references added. Matches the published versio

Science Impacts of the SPHEREx All-Sky Optical to Near-Infrared Spectral Survey: Report of a Community Workshop Examining Extragalactic, Galactic, Stellar and Planetary Science

SPHEREx is a proposed SMEX mission selected for Phase A. SPHEREx will carry out the first all-sky spectral survey and provide for every 6.2" pixel a spectra between 0.75 and 4.18 $\mu$m [with R$\sim$41.4] and 4.18 and 5.00 $\mu$m [with R$\sim$135]. The SPHEREx team has proposed three specific science investigations to be carried out with this unique data set: cosmic inflation, interstellar and circumstellar ices, and the extra-galactic background light. It is readily apparent, however, that many other questions in astrophysics and planetary sciences could be addressed with the SPHEREx data. The SPHEREx team convened a community workshop in February 2016, with the intent of enlisting the aid of a larger group of scientists in defining these questions. This paper summarizes the rich and varied menu of investigations that was laid out. It includes studies of the composition of main belt and Trojan/Greek asteroids; mapping the zodiacal light with unprecedented spatial and spectral resolution; identifying and studying very low-metallicity stars; improving stellar parameters in order to better characterize transiting exoplanets; studying aliphatic and aromatic carbon-bearing molecules in the interstellar medium; mapping star formation rates in nearby galaxies; determining the redshift of clusters of galaxies; identifying high redshift quasars over the full sky; and providing a NIR spectrum for most eROSITA X-ray sources. All of these investigations, and others not listed here, can be carried out with the nominal all-sky spectra to be produced by SPHEREx. In addition, the workshop defined enhanced data products and user tools which would facilitate some of these scientific studies. Finally, the workshop noted the high degrees of synergy between SPHEREx and a number of other current or forthcoming programs, including JWST, WFIRST, Euclid, GAIA, K2/Kepler, TESS, eROSITA and LSST.Comment: Report of the First SPHEREx Community Workshop, http://spherex.caltech.edu/Workshop.html , 84 pages, 28 figure