Sub-chapter 1.2.2. The climate of the Mediterranean regions in the future climate projections

Introduction Giorgi (2006) defined hot-spots as the most sensitive regions to climate change. On the basis of a regional climate change index (RCCI) calculated from temperature and precipitation projections, the Mediterranean region was revealed to be one of the most prominent hot-spots over the globe. Considering the last global climate change projections in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013), the singularity of the region, particularly ..

Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa

Global climate projections suggest a significant intensification of summer heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). To assess regional impacts, and underpin mitigation and adaptation measures, robust information is required from climate downscaling studies, which has been lacking for the region. Here, we project future hot spells by using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index and a comprehensive ensemble of regional climate projections for MENA. Our results, for a business-as-usual pathway, indicate that in the second half of this century unprecedented super- and ultra-extreme heatwave conditions will emerge. These events involve excessively high temperatures (up to 56 degrees C and higher) and will be of extended duration (several weeks), being potentially life-threatening for humans. By the end of the century, about half of the MENA population (approximately 600 million) could be exposed to annually recurring super- and ultra-extreme heatwaves. It is expected that the vast majority of the exposed population (>90%) will live in urban centers, who would need to cope with these societally disruptive weather conditions.This research was supported by the EMME-CARE project that has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program, under Grant Agreement No. 856612, as well as matching co-funding by the Government of the Republic of Cyprus. It was co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund and the Republic of Cyprus through the Research Innovation Foundation CELSIUS Project EXCELLENCE/1216/0039.Publisher's Versio

The Mediterranean region under climate change

This book has been published by Allenvi (French National Alliance for Environmental Research) to coincide with the 22nd Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP22) in Marrakesh. It is the outcome of work by academic researchers on both sides of the Mediterranean and provides a remarkable scientific review of the mechanisms of climate change and its impacts on the environment, the economy, health and Mediterranean societies. It will also be valuable in developing responses that draw on “scientific evidence” to address the issues of adaptation, resource conservation, solutions and risk prevention. Reflecting the full complexity of the Mediterranean environment, the book is a major scientific contribution to the climate issue, where various scientific considerations converge to break down the boundaries between disciplines