Costs of mitigating CO2 emissions from passenger aircraft

In response to strong growth in air transportation CO2 emissions, governments and industry began to explore and implement mitigation measures and targets in the early 2000s. However, in the absence of rigorous analyses assessing the costs for mitigating CO2 emissions, these policies could be economically wasteful. Here we identify the cost-effectiveness of CO2 emission reductions from narrow-body aircraft, the workhorse of passenger air transportation. We find that in the US, a combination of fuel burn reduction strategies could reduce the 2012 level of life cycle CO2 emissions per passenger kilometre by around 2% per year to mid-century. These intensity reductions would occur at zero marginal costs for oil prices between US$50–100 per barrel. Even larger reductions are possible, but could impose extra costs and require the adoption of biomass-based synthetic fuels. The extent to which these intensity reductions will translate into absolute emissions reductions will depend on fleet growth

Building a genomic framework for prospective MRSA surveillance in the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland.

The correct interpretation of microbial sequencing data applied to surveillance and outbreak investigation depends on accessible genomic databases to provide vital genetic context. Our aim was to construct and describe a United Kingdom MRSA database containing over 1000 methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) genomes drawn from England, Northern Ireland, Wales, Scotland, and the Republic of Ireland over a decade. We sequenced 1013 MRSA submitted to the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy by 46 laboratories between 2001 and 2010. Each isolate was assigned to a regional healthcare referral network in England and was otherwise grouped based on country of origin. Phylogenetic reconstructions were used to contextualize MRSA outbreak investigations and to detect the spread of resistance. The majority of isolates (n = 783, 77%) belonged to CC22, which contains the dominant United Kingdom epidemic clone (EMRSA-15). There was marked geographic structuring of EMRSA-15, consistent with widespread dissemination prior to the sampling decade followed by local diversification. The addition of MRSA genomes from two outbreaks and one pseudo-outbreak demonstrated the certainty with which outbreaks could be confirmed or refuted. We identified local and regional differences in antibiotic resistance profiles, with examples of local expansion, as well as widespread circulation of mobile genetic elements across the bacterial population. We have generated a resource for the future surveillance and outbreak investigation of MRSA in the United Kingdom and Ireland and have shown the value of this during outbreak investigation and tracking of antimicrobial resistance.We are grateful for assistance from the library construction, sequencing and core informatics teams at the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute. We acknowledge David Harris and Martin Aslett for their help in submitting the sequenced isolates to public databases. The study was supported by grants from the UKCRC Translational Infection Research Initiative, and the Medical Research Council (Grant Number G1000803) with contributions to the Grant from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research on behalf of the Department of Health, and the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health Directorate (to Prof. Peacock); by Wellcome Trust grant number 098051 awarded to the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute; and by a Healthcare Infection Society Major Reasearch Grant. MET is a Clinician Scientist Fellow, supported by the Academy of Medical Sciences and the Health Foundation and the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre. BGS was supported by Wellcome Trust grant number 089472. The study was approved by the University of Cambridge Human Biology Research Ethics Committee (reference HBREC.2013.05), and by the Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust Research and Development Department (reference A092869). Isolates were supplied by the BSAC Resistance Surveillance Project.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press via http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/gr.196709.11

Cosmic ray diffusion near the Bohm limit in the Cassiopeia A supernova remnant

Supernova remnants (SNRs) are believed to be the primary location of the acceleration of Galactic cosmic rays, via diffusive shock (Fermi) acceleration. Despite considerable theoretical work the precise details are still unknown, in part because of the difficulty in directly observing nucleons that are accelerated to TeV energies in, and affect the structure of, the SNR shocks. However, for the last ten years, X-ray observatories ASCA, and more recently Chandra, XMM-Newton, and Suzaku have made it possible to image the synchrotron emission at keV energies produced by cosmic-ray electrons accelerated in the SNR shocks. In this article, we describe a spatially-resolved spectroscopic analysis of Chandra observations of the Galactic SNR Cassiopeia A to map the cutoff frequencies of electrons accelerated in the forward shock. We set upper limits on the electron diffusion coefficient and find locations where particles appear to be accelerated nearly as fast as theoretically possible (the Bohm limit).Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures. Accepted for publication in Nature Physics (DOI below), final version available week of August 28, 2006 at http://www.nature.com/nphy

Minding impacting events in a model of stochastic variance

We introduce a generalisation of the well-known ARCH process, widely used for generating uncorrelated stochastic time series with long-term non-Gaussian distributions and long-lasting correlations in the (instantaneous) standard deviation exhibiting a clustering profile. Specifically, inspired by the fact that in a variety of systems impacting events are hardly forgot, we split the process into two different regimes: a first one for regular periods where the average volatility of the fluctuations within a certain period of time is below a certain threshold and another one when the local standard deviation outnumbers it. In the former situation we use standard rules for heteroscedastic processes whereas in the latter case the system starts recalling past values that surpassed the threshold. Our results show that for appropriate parameter values the model is able to provide fat tailed probability density functions and strong persistence of the instantaneous variance characterised by large values of the Hurst exponent is greater than 0.8, which are ubiquitous features in complex systems.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures, 1 table. To published in PLoS on

Telephone Consultation for Improving Health of People Living with or at Risk of HIV: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND: Low cost, effective interventions are needed to deal with the major global burden of HIV/AIDS. Telephone consultation offers the potential to improve health of people living with HIV/AIDS cost-effectively and to reduce the burden on affected people and health systems. The aim of this systematic review was to assess the effectiveness of telephone consultation for HIV/AIDS care. METHODS: We undertook a comprehensive search of peer-reviewed and grey literature. Two authors independently screened citations, extracted data and assessed the quality of randomized controlled trials which compared telephone interventions with control groups for HIV/AIDS care. Telephone interventions were voice calls with landlines or mobile phones. We present a narrative overview of the results as the obtained trials were highly heterogeneous in design and therefore the data could not be pooled for statistical analysis. RESULTS: The search yielded 3321 citations. Of these, nine studies involving 1162 participants met the inclusion criteria. The telephone was used for giving HIV test results (one trial) and for delivering behavioural interventions aimed at improving mental health (four trials), reducing sexual transmission risk (one trial), improving medication adherence (two trials) and smoking cessation (one trial). Limited effectiveness of the intervention was found in the trial giving HIV test results, in one trial supporting medication adherence and in one trial for smoking cessation by telephone. CONCLUSIONS: We found some evidence of the benefits of interventions delivered by telephone for the health of people living with HIV or at risk of HIV. However, only limited conclusions can be drawn as we only found nine studies for five different interventions and they mainly took place in the United States. Nevertheless, given the high penetration of low-cost mobile phones in countries with high HIV endemicity, more evidence is needed on how telephone consultation can aid in the delivery of HIV prevention, treatment and care

Hypoxia-regulated carbonic anhydrase IX expression is associated with poor survival in patients with invasive breast cancer.

Tumour hypoxia is a microenvironmental factor related to poor response to radiation, chemotherapy, genetic instability, selection for resistance to apoptosis, and increased risk of invasion and metastasis. Hypoxia-regulated carbonic anhydrase IX (CA IX) has been studied in various tumour sites and its expression has been correlated with the clinical outcome. The purpose of this study was to investigate the correlation of CA IX expression with outcome in patients with invasive breast cancer. We conducted a retrospective study examining the effects of carbonic anhydrase IX (CA IX) on survival in patients with breast cancer. To facilitate the screening of multiple tissue blocks from each patient, tissue microarrays were prepared containing between two and five representative samples of tumour per patient. Immunohistochemistry was used to examine expression of CA IX in patients with breast cancer. The study includes a cohort of 144 unselected patients with early invasive breast cancer who underwent surgery, and had CA IX expression and follow-up data available for analysis. At the time of analysis, there were 28 deaths and median follow-up of 48 months with 96% of patients having at least 2 years of follow-up. CA IX was negative for 107 patients (17 deaths) and positive for 37 patients (11 deaths). Kaplan-Meier survival curves show that survival was superior in the CA IX-negative group with a 2-year survival of 97% for negatives and 83% for positives (log-rank test P=0.01). Allowing for potential prognostic variables in a Cox regression analysis, CA IX remained a significant independent predictor of survival (P=0.035). This study showed in both univariate and multivariate analysis that survival is significantly inferior in patients with tumour expressing CA IX. Prospective studies are underway to investigate this correlation in clinical trial setting

Galactic and Extragalactic Samples of Supernova Remnants: How They Are Identified and What They Tell Us

Supernova remnants (SNRs) arise from the interaction between the ejecta of a supernova (SN) explosion and the surrounding circumstellar and interstellar medium. Some SNRs, mostly nearby SNRs, can be studied in great detail. However, to understand SNRs as a whole, large samples of SNRs must be assembled and studied. Here, we describe the radio, optical, and X-ray techniques which have been used to identify and characterize almost 300 Galactic SNRs and more than 1200 extragalactic SNRs. We then discuss which types of SNRs are being found and which are not. We examine the degree to which the luminosity functions, surface-brightness distributions and multi-wavelength comparisons of the samples can be interpreted to determine the class properties of SNRs and describe efforts to establish the type of SN explosion associated with a SNR. We conclude that in order to better understand the class properties of SNRs, it is more important to study (and obtain additional data on) the SNRs in galaxies with extant samples at multiple wavelength bands than it is to obtain samples of SNRs in other galaxiesComment: Final 2016 draft of a chapter in "Handbook of Supernovae" edited by Athem W. Alsabti and Paul Murdin. Final version available at https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-20794-0_90-

Theory of disk accretion onto supermassive black holes

Accretion onto supermassive black holes produces both the dramatic phenomena associated with active galactic nuclei and the underwhelming displays seen in the Galactic Center and most other nearby galaxies. I review selected aspects of the current theoretical understanding of black hole accretion, emphasizing the role of magnetohydrodynamic turbulence and gravitational instabilities in driving the actual accretion and the importance of the efficacy of cooling in determining the structure and observational appearance of the accretion flow. Ongoing investigations into the dynamics of the plunging region, the origin of variability in the accretion process, and the evolution of warped, twisted, or eccentric disks are summarized.Comment: Mostly introductory review, to appear in "Supermassive black holes in the distant Universe", ed. A.J. Barger, Kluwer Academic Publishers, in pres

Factors associated with nosocomial SARS-CoV transmission among healthcare workers in Hanoi, Vietnam, 2003

BACKGROUND: In March of 2003, an outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) occurred in Northern Vietnam. This outbreak began when a traveler arriving from Hong Kong sought medical care at a small hospital (Hospital A) in Hanoi, initiating a serious and substantial transmission event within the hospital, and subsequent limited spread within the community. METHODS: We surveyed Hospital A personnel for exposure to the index patient and for symptoms of disease during the outbreak. Additionally, serum specimens were collected and assayed for antibody to SARS-associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV) antibody and job-specific attack rates were calculated. A nested case-control analysis was performed to assess risk factors for acquiring SARS-CoV infection. RESULTS: One hundred and fifty-three of 193 (79.3%) clinical and non-clinical staff consented to participate. Excluding job categories with <3 workers, the highest SARS attack rates occurred among nurses who worked in the outpatient and inpatient general wards (57.1, 47.4%, respectively). Nurses assigned to the operating room/intensive care unit, experienced the lowest attack rates (7.1%) among all clinical staff. Serologic evidence of SARS-CoV infection was detected in 4 individuals, including 2 non-clinical workers, who had not previously been identified as SARS cases; none reported having had fever or cough. Entering the index patient's room and having seen (viewed) the patient were the behaviors associated with highest risk for infection by univariate analysis (odds ratios 20.0, 14.0; 95% confidence intervals 4.1–97.1, 3.6–55.3, respectively). CONCLUSION: This study highlights job categories and activities associated with increased risk for SARS-CoV infection and demonstrates that a broad diversity of hospital workers may be vulnerable during an outbreak. These findings may help guide recommendations for the protection of vulnerable occupational groups and may have implications for other respiratory infections such as influenza