Optimal monopoly investment and capacity utilization under random demand

Unique value-maximizing programs of irreversible capacity investment and capacity utilization are described and shown to exist under general conditions for monopolist exhibiting capital adjustment costs and serving random consumer demand for a nondurable good over an infinite horizon. Stationary properties of these programs are then fully characterized under the assumption of serially independent demand disturbances. Optimal monopoly behavior in this case includes acquisition of a constant and positive level of capacity, the maintenance of a positive expected value of excess capacity in each period, and an asymmetrical response of price to unanticipated fluctuations in consumer demand. Under a general form of Markovian demand, the effect of uncertainty on irreversible capacity investment is also described in terms of the discounted flow of expected revenue accruing to the marginal unit of existing capacity and the option value of deferring the acquisition of additional capital. The option value of deferring such acquisition, created by the irreversibility of capacity investment, is characterized directly in terms of the value function of the firm, and is then shown to be zero in a stationary equilibrium with serially independent demand disturbances. The response of investment to increase demand uncertainty depends, as a result, directly on the properties of the marginal revenue product of capital. A non-negative response of optimal capacity to increased uncertainty in market demand is demonstrated for a general class of aggregate consumer preferences.Industrial capacity

Fuzzy ARTMAP: A Neural Network Architecture for Incremental Supervised Learning of Analog Multidimensional Maps

A new neural network architecture is introduced for incremental supervised learning of recognition categories and multidimensional maps in response to arbitrary sequences of analog or binary input vectors. The architecture, called Fuzzy ARTMAP, achieves a synthesis of fuzzy logic and Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) neural networks by exploiting a close formal similarity between the computations of fuzzy subsethood and ART category choice, resonance, and learning. Fuzzy ARTMAP also realizes a new Minimax Learning Rule that conjointly minimizes predictive error and maximizes code compression, or generalization. This is achieved by a match tracking process that increases the ART vigilance parameter by the minimum amount needed to correct a predictive error. As a result, the system automatically learns a minimal number of recognition categories, or "hidden units", to met accuracy criteria. Category proliferation is prevented by normalizing input vectors at a preprocessing stage. A normalization procedure called complement coding leads to a symmetric theory in which the MIN operator (Λ) and the MAX operator (v) of fuzzy logic play complementary roles. Complement coding uses on-cells and off-cells to represent the input pattern, and preserves individual feature amplitudes while normalizing the total on-cell/off-cell vector. Learning is stable because all adaptive weights can only decrease in time. Decreasing weights correspond to increasing sizes of category "boxes". Smaller vigilance values lead to larger category boxes. Improved prediction is achieved by training the system several times using different orderings of the input set. This voting strategy can also be used to assign probability estimates to competing predictions given small, noisy, or incomplete training sets. Four classes of simulations illustrate Fuzzy ARTMAP performance as compared to benchmark back propagation and genetic algorithm systems. These simulations include (i) finding points inside vs. outside a circle; (ii) learning to tell two spirals apart; (iii) incremental approximation of a piecewise continuous function; and (iv) a letter recognition database. The Fuzzy ARTMAP system is also compared to Salzberg's NGE system and to Simpson's FMMC system.British Petroleum (89-A-1204); Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (90-0083); National Science Foundation (IRI 90-00530); Office of Naval Research (N00014-91-J-4100); Air Force Office of Scientific Research (90-0175

The Evolving Police Power: Some Observations for a New Century

The conventional wisdom about the scope of state police powers goes like this: in the early days of the Republic, legitimate regulation existed only to prevent concrete harm to specified interests. Sometime around the previous turn of the century, the scope of state police powers expanded; states could regulate as they chose so long as they claimed to be working to promote the public safety, welfare, or morality. This article examines a number of recent state constitutional decisions having to do with sodomy, parenting, marriage, and procreation and argues that in deciding these cases the courts are returning to the classic conception of state police power. This return explains the many decisions striking down laws against sodomy, possession of vibrators, etc. It also explains why these decisions have been less controversial than one might expect, especially given that they often come from conservative courts in conservative states. In addition, this article suggests that the renewed concern for identifying legitimate governmental ends has important ramifications for the recently revived area of privileges or immunities under the federal Constitution

A Case-Based Assessment of the Descriptiveness of Three CIO Typologies and Validity of Two CIO-Effectiveness Models

This paper uses a case study of a single firm to assess the completeness of three CIO typologies, and the validity of two models of factors affecting CIO effectiveness. With respect to the typologies, our conclusions are that all three typologies were also useful for understanding the role of the CIO at PaperlinX. However, Broadbent and Kitzis’ (2005) binary trusted senior executive leader versus chief technology mechanic classification appears too coarse-grained, with Leider and Mackay’s (2005) typology being more descriptive of the CIO role at PaperlinX. With respect to the two models of CIO effectiveness, our conclusions are that all factors in both models were applicable and important in the case study. The one suggestion we have here is that the Broadbent and Kitzis claim that their model is only applicable for trusted senior executive leader may be too restrictive; it appears to have broader applicability

Observations of X-rays and Thermal Dust Emission from the Supernova Remnant Kes 75

We present Spitzer Space Telescope and Chandra X-ray Observatory observations of the composite Galactic supernova remnant Kes 75 (G29.7-0.3). We use the detected flux at 24 microns and hot gas parameters from fitting spectra from new, deep X-ray observations to constrain models of dust emission, obtaining a dust-to-gas mass ratio M_dust/M_gas ~0.001. We find that a two-component thermal model, nominally representing shocked swept-up interstellar or circumstellar material and reverse-shocked ejecta, adequately fits the X-ray spectrum, albeit with somewhat high implied densities for both components. We surmise that this model implies a Wolf-Rayet progenitor for the remnant. We also present infrared flux upper limits for the central pulsar wind nebula.Comment: 7 pages, 2 tables, 4 figures, uses emulateapj. Accepted for publication in Ap

Work in Progress: The WSU Model for Engineering Mathematics Education

This paper summarizes progress to date on the WSU model for engineering mathematics education, an NSF funded curriculum reform initiative at Wright State University. The WSU model seeks to increase student retention, motivation and success in engineering through application-driven, just-in-time engineering math instruction. The WSU approach involves the development of a novel freshman-level engineering mathematics course EGR 101, as well as a large-scale restructuring of the engineering curriculum. By removing traditional math prerequisites and moving core engineering courses earlier in the program, the WSU model shifts the traditional emphasis on math prerequisite requirements to an emphasis on engineering motivation for math, with a just-in-time structuring of the new math sequence. This paper summarizes the development to date of the WSU model for engineering mathematics education, including a preliminary assessment of student performance and perception during the initial implementation of EGR 101. In addition, an assessment of first-year retention results is anticipated in time for the conference

Tributes to Professor Andy King

Tributes to Professor Andrew King upon his retirement from the University of Maryland School of Law

The Feasibility of Enhacing Streamflow in the Sevier River Basin of Utah by Seeding Winter Mountain Clouds

The Bureau of Reclamation conducted a feasibility study of seeding winter mountain clouds as a possible means of enhancing the water supplies of the Sevier River Basin of Utah. A considerable body of pertinent meteorological observations from in or near the basin is examined. The evidence indicates that Utah winter mountain clouds often have more supercooled liquid water available than is naturally converted to snowfall. Thus, the needed raw material for cloud seeding to be effective is frequently available. Much of the excess liquid water has been found in the lowest kilometer or less over the mountain barriers, a region that can be seeded with properly located ground generators. This zone is too warm for silver iodide seeding during some storms and other agents, such as propane, should also be considered. Past operational and experimental seeding projects in the region are examined. There are suggestions from some analyses that seeding has produced about 10 percent more precipitation on a seasonal basis. However, other analyses have disputed these suggestions and it is concluded that the question of the effectiveness of current seeding practices is still an open one. It is recommended that a two phase demonstration program be conducted to place the emerging technology of winter cloud seeding on a firm scientific foundation. Physical experiments should be emphasized which document all key links in the chain of physical processes following seeding. Benefit-cost ratios for an operational seeding program are estimated with the caveat that a number of assumptions need further testing. However, if seeding could produce additional snowfall even approaching 10 percent per winter, the value of the additional water would likely exceed, and perhaps far exceed, the cost of seeding operations