Scale Dependence of Overconfidence in Stock Market Volatility Forecasts

In this study, we analyze whether volatility forecasts (judgmental confidence intervals) are influenced by the specific elicitation mode (i.e. whether forecasters have to state future price levels or directly future returns as upper and lower bounds). We present questionnaire responses of about 250 students from two German universities. Participants were asked to state median forecasts as well as confidence intervals for seven stock market time series. Using a between subject design, one half of the subjects was asked to state future price levels, the other group was directly asked for returns. Consistent with prior research we find that subjects underestimate the volatility of stock returns, indicating overconfidence. As a new insight, we find that the strength of the overconfidence effect in stock market forecasts is highly significantly affected by the fact whether subjects provide price or return forecasts. Volatility estimates are lower (and the overconfidence bias is thus stronger) when subjects are asked for returns compared to price forecasts

Unique and redundant functions of NKp46+ ILC3s in models of intestinal inflammation

Group 3 ILCs (ILC3s) are innate sources of IL-22 and IL-17 and include lymphoid tissue-inducer (LTi)-like and NKp46(+) subsets. Both depend on RORγt and aryl hydrocarbon receptor, but NKp46(+)ILC3s also require Notch and T-bet for their development and are transcriptionally distinct. The extent to which these subsets have unique functions, especially in the context of T cell– and B cell–sufficient mice, remains largely unclear. To investigate the specific function of NKp46(+)ILC3s among other ILC3 subsets and T cells, we generated mice selectively lacking NKp46(+)ILC3s or all ILC3s and crossed them to T cell–deficient mice, thus maintaining B cells in all mice. In mice lacking T cells, NKp46(+)ILC3s were sufficient to promote inflammatory monocyte accumulation in the anti-CD40 innate colitis model through marked production of GM-CSF. In T cell–competent mice, lack of NKp46(+)ILCs had no impact on control of intestinal C. rodentium infection, whereas lack of all ILC3s partially impaired bacterial control. Thus, NKp46(+)ILC3s have a unique capacity to promote inflammation through GM-CSF–induced accumulation of inflammatory monocytes, but are superseded by LTi-like ILC3s and T cells in controlling intestinal bacterial infection

Non-Human and Human Transport to Mars: by Mars- plus Europa-INPPS Flagship Missions including High Mass Science Payload

Summary Status INPPS Flagshi

Non-Human + Human Deep Space Exploration: By The NEP INPPS Flagship

INPPS Flagship Structure & Subsystems, Ground Based Tests, Pure NEP, International Electric Thrusters, Humans Internationally To Mar

Mars- plus Europa-INPPS Flagship Missions with High Power Electric Thrusters and Heavy Science Payload

2020/2021 orbit calculations (DLR Bremen + MAI Moscow): 3 Orbits for one non-human MARS/EUROPA-INPPS flagship 1. Orbit Earth (11 Oct 2026) => Mars (28 Jan 2028); 2. Orbit Mars (22 Sept 2028) => Earth (29 Jul 2029); 3. Orbit Earth (12 Oct 2031) => Jupiter / Europa (6 Dec 2035) 22 ETs (for the INPPS flagship CET): example - gridded CET plate with combined ET

Humans to Mars: by MARS- plus EUROPA-INPPS Flagship Mission

The first non-human INPPS (International Nuclear Power and Propulsion System) flagship flight with orbits Earth-Mars-Earth-Jupiter/Europa (after 2025) is the most maximal space qualification test of INPPS flagship to carry out the second INPPS flagship flight to Mars with humans (in the 2030th). This high power space transportation tug is realistic because of A) the successful finalization of the European-Russian DEMOCRITOS and MEGAHIT projects with their three concepts of space, ground and nuclear demonstrators for INPPS realization (reached in 2017), B) the successful ground based test of the Russian nuclear reactor with 1MWel plus important heat dissipation solution via droplet radiators (confirmed in 2018), C) the space qualification of the Russian reactor by 2025 and D) the perfect celestial constellation for a Earth-Mars/Phobos-Earth-Jupiter/Europa trajectory between 2026 and 2035. Therefore the talk sketches the preparation status of INPPS flagship with its subsystems. Critical performance will be studied by parallel realizations of the ground and nuclear demonstrators of DEMOCRITOS (until 2025). The space qualification of INPPS with all subsystems including the nuclear reactor in the middle of the 2020th plus the INPPS tests for about one to two years - first in high Earth orbit robotic assembly phase of INPPS and later extended in nearby Earth space environment flight - means a complete concepts driven approval for all applied INPPS space subsystem technologies. It is also important to consider wider aspects for the overall mission implementation phase. Component like the nuclear reactor as the power source for the propulsion system will have to agree with the 1992 UN principles relevant to the use of nuclear power sources (NPS) in outer space. Therefore this talk will look into the legal and policy issues of nuclear space systems related to the international realization of mission design, requirements of associated safety regulations (including AI applications in the subsystems) and new aspects for INPPS flagship commercialization and new media communication on board