Regionalised impacts of climate change on flood flows: rationale for definition of climate change scenarios and sensitivity framework. Milestone report 2. Revised November 2009

The primary objective of FD2020 ‘Regionalising the impacts of climate change on flood flows’ was to assess the suitability of current FCDPAG3 guidance given the advances in climate change science since its publication. PAG3 requires an allowance of 20% to be added to peak flows for any period between 2025 and 2115 for any location across Britain. This guidance was considered a precautionary value and its derivation reflected the evidence available at that time. FD2020 has been designed to increase this evidence base, and it is anticipated that the research will lead to the development of regional, rather than national, guidelines for changes to peak flows due to climate change. A scenario-neutral approach based on a broad sensitivity analysis to determine catchment response to changes in climate as chosen for FD2020. The method separates the climate change that a catchment may be exposed to (the hazard) from the catchment response (change in peak flows) to changes in the climate (the vulnerability). By combining current understanding of climate change likelihood (the ‘hazard’) with the vulnerability of a given catchment, it is possible to evaluate the risk of flood flow changes. The vulnerability of a catchment is to be characterised in two steps: first, the response of a set of catchment’s to a range of climatic changes are modelled, then analysed for similarity, and characterised according to catchment properties. This is done by defining a sensitivity framework of changes to the mean and seasonality of precipitation and temperature and modelling the response of each catchment within this fixed framework. To properly understand the relationship between catchment properties, climate changes and changes in flood flows, it is essential that the considered scenarios capture the range of potential climatic changes expected to occur in Great Britain, including the large GCM (Global Climate Model) uncertainty. This means the vulnerability assessment (or the conclusions of the modelling exercise and regionalisation study) will be as robust as possible, and provide a sound science-base for subsequent policy guidance to the flood management community. This project report describes the rationale and the development of the climate change scenarios used in the project FD2020. The objective of this module of work was to develop a methodology to conceptualise how a catchment’s vulnerability (in terms of change in its flood regime under climate change) could be evaluated. This requires the identification of a range of climate change scenarios to be used in a comprehensive yet manageable evaluation of future river flood flows, which was guided by, but not limited to, current predictions of future climatic changes. This methodology is also designed to characterise the climatic change hazard, so that it can be compared with the catchments vulnerability to changes. Previous climate change studies relied only on projections from a few global (GCM) and regional climate models (RCMs), and thus could only capture a very limited part of the GCM uncertainty. The IPCC AR4 now provides data from 17 GCMs, all considered equally plausible representations of future climates

Diagnostic des eaux de surface. Application du système modulaire gradué au Boiron de Morges

Les variations hydro-climatiques et anthropiques actuelles et prévues dans le futur interrogent sur l’évolution de l’état écologique des cours d’eau. Il est donc crucial de développer des outils prenant en compte les dimensions quantitatives et qualitatives des ressources en eau. C’est le cas du système modulaire gradué proposé par l’Office fédéral de l’environnement. Cet article présente un retour d’expérience sur la mise en oeuvre de ce système, appliqué au Boiron de Morges, et sur sa capacité à identifier la variabilité spatio-temporelle des enjeux écologiques

In light of seasonal climatic and anthropogenic changes, is the Vaud Canton (Switzerland) vulnerable to water stress by the medium-term?

Observed changes in hydrological processes during the past 20 years in Switzerland are particularly preoccupying as they directly affect water use. In 2003 and 2011, local water shortage episodes occurred. Water withdrawals and supplies had to be restricted, notably in the canton of Vaud (Western Switzerland). These droughts highlighted increasing competition among water users and new water management issues arose. This study explores how hydro-climatic conditions and water needs could evolve by the 2060 horizon and assesses the vulnerability of the canton to water stress under climatic and anthropogenic changes. A daily semi-distributed hydrological model was used to simulate flows. Future changes were derived from Swiss climate scenarios relying on ten regional climate models. Regarding water needs, a population growth scenario was provided by the canton whereas a business-as-usual scenario was considered for irrigation and breeding trends. Currently, catchments in the canton experience moderate water stress from June to August, except in alpine areas. By the medium-term, water needs could reach more than 80% of rivers' total runoff in July and August. This should be due to higher temperatures and a higher ratio of liquid-to-solid precipitation causing more severe low flows. In addition, water needs should significantly increase from April to July, due to higher irrigation (+25%) and urban (+40%) water needs. This study gives a first overview of where and when water tensions are most likely to occur in the canton of Vaud. Highlighting these regional differences supports the development of strategies to cope with water stress that are currently being discussed with the cantonal authorities

DNA hypomethylation during MSC chondrogenesis occurs predominantly at enhancer regions

Regulation of transcription occurs in a cell type specific manner orchestrated by epigenetic mechanisms including DNA methylation. Methylation changes may also play a key role in lineage specification during stem cell differentiation. To further our understanding of epigenetic regulation in chondrocytes we characterised the DNA methylation changes during chondrogenesis of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) by Infinium 450 K methylation array. Significant DNA hypomethylation was identified during chondrogenic differentiation including changes at many key cartilage gene loci. Integration with chondrogenesis gene expression data revealed an enrichment of significant CpGs in upregulated genes, while characterisation of significant CpG loci indicated their predominant localisation to enhancer regions. Comparison with methylation profiles of other tissues, including healthy and diseased adult cartilage, identified chondrocyte-specific regions of hypomethylation and the overlap with differentially methylated CpGs in osteoarthritis. Taken together we have associated DNA methylation levels with the chondrocyte phenotype. The consequences of which has potential to improve cartilage generation for tissue engineering purposes and also to provide context for observed methylation changes in cartilage diseases such as osteoarthritis

The FORGEX method of rainfall growth estimation I: Review of requirement

International audienceA growth factor is the ratio of the T-year extreme value to an index extreme value such as the mean of annual maxima. Whereas a record length of ten or more years may suffice to estimate the index variable, it is generally necessary to blend data from several sites if estimates of exceptional extreme values are to be obtained. Methods of rainfall growth estimation are reviewed, including traditional methods which extend frequency curves to long return period by a distributional assumption, and methods which study spatial dependence in extreme rainfalls. It is desirable that estimates at neighbouring sites, and across different durations and return periods, are internally consistent. The review concludes that rather special techniques may be required if this goal of estimation extreme rainfall depth consistently is to be met. The motivation of the Focused Rainfall Growth Extension (FORGEX) method is presented

InterGEO: a digital platform for university education on geomorphological heritage

The project InterGEO was carried out with the objective to disseminate knowledge on geomorphological heritage by developing a digital learning platform. It aims at improving students' autonomy by the reduction of face-to-face teaching and increasing autonomous learning as well as promoting international interactions between students interested in geomorphological heritage. A completely free-access virtual course on geomorphosites was developed with the Learning Management System Moodle. The course is divided into 24 thematic chapters, each of them containing a short description, a list of references and selected publications, as well as other educational material (videos, virtual fieldtrips, etc.). In particular, several videos allow presenting in a dynamic way concepts and examples. The paper presents the tool and its use in academic programmes in six European universities, where it was tested, in various contexts (Bachelors' and Masters' programmes; students in geography or geology; general courses in geomorphology and specific courses on geoheritage and geoconservation), before discussing the advantages and challenges the tool is facing. The InterGEO platform is an easy-to-use and friendly educational tool, which allows developing blended learning activities; it is flexible and adaptable in various learning contexts.The coordination tasks (appointment of an assistant) and two workshops in Lausanne were financed by the University of Lausanne (Teaching Innovation Fund and Investment Fund of the Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, FGSE). The videos were designed and created with support of the universities of Lausanne (TIF) and Savoie Mont Blanc (IDEFI Promising and ReflexPro; LabEx ITEM)

A restatement of the natural science evidence concerning catchment-based ‘natural’ flood management in the UK

Flooding is a very costly natural hazard in the UK and is expected to increase further under future climate change scenarios. Flood defences are commonly deployed to protect communities and property from flooding, but in recent years flood management policy has looked towards solutions that seek to mitigate flood risk at flood-prone sites through targeted interventions throughout the catchment, sometimes using techniques which involve working with natural processes. This paper describes a project to provide a succinct summary of the natural science evidence base concerning the effectiveness of catchment-based ‘natural’ flood management in the UK. The evidence summary is designed to be read by an informed but not technically specialist audience. Each evidence statement is placed into one of four categories describing the nature of the underlying information. The evidence summary forms the appendix to this paper and an annotated bibliography is provided in the electronic supplementary material