An Analysis of the Evolution of Tourism Destinations from the Point of View of the Economic Growth Theory

In this paper we try to build a bridge between the traditional analysis of the evolution of tourism destinations and economic growth theory. With such an aim we develop an environmental growth model for an economy specialized in tourism and we derive the pattern of tourism development with numerical calculations. The results of our simulations do not contradict the general pattern of evolution implied in the Tourism Area Life Cycle Hypothesis, being environmental deterioration and public goods congestion the main reasons for the stagnation of the tourism destination. We also show the importance of the quality of private tourism services in the evolution of the tourism destination.Tourism, Economic growth, Tourism lifcycle

An Analysis of the Evolution of Tourism Destinations from the Point of View of the Economic Growth Theory

In this paper we try to build a bridge between the traditional analysis of the evolution of tourism destinations and economic growth theory. With such an aim we develop an environmental growth model for an economy specialized in tourism and we derive the pattern of tourism development with numerical calculations. The results of our simulations do not contradict the general pattern of evolution implied in the Tourism Area Life Cycle Hypothesis, being environmental deterioration and public goods congestion the main reasons for the stagnation of the tourism destination. We also show the importance of the quality of private tourism services in the evolution of the tourism destination

Land, Environmental Externalities and Tourism Development

In a two sectors dynamic model we analyze the process of tourism development based on the accumulation of capital (building of tourism facilities) and the reallocation of land from traditional activities to the tourism sector. The model incorporates the conflict between occupation of the territory by the tourism facilities, other productive activities and availability of cultural, natural and environmental assets that are valued by residents and visitors. We characterize the process of tourism development in two settings: the socially optimal solution and a situation where the costs of tourism expansion are external to the decision makers, where externalities on residents as well as intraindustry externalities are considered. Regarding the optimal solution, we show that it is optimal to limit tourism expansion before it reaches its maximum capacity even in a context where the economic attractiveness of tourism relative to other productive sectors rise continuously. However, in this context and when all the costs of tourism development are externalities the only limit to tourism quantitative expansion is its maximum capacity determined by the availability of land. Finally, we show that excessive environmental degradation from the future generations’ point of view is not a problem of discounting the future but rather a problem of externalities that affects negatively the current and future generations.Intertemporal land allocation, Structural economic change, Tourism industry

"Cruising is Risky Business"

As the fastest growing sector within the international tourism industry, having grown at roughly double the rate of international tourism as a whole, the cruise liner business has shown impressive growth in the North American and European markets. For port management purposes, as well as for transport policy, it is essential to be able to forecast accurately cruise passenger arrivals and their variability. In the presence of time-varying variances (or volatility), it is crucial to model such volatility in order to provide sensible forecast intervals in addition to the forecast themselves. Time-varying volatility in port management is important because governments and businesses need to be aware of the uncertainty associated with the number of cruise passenger arrivals and their associated growth. In calculating income elasticities, port taxes and tourist taxes, it is essential to obtain accurate estimates of cruise passenger arrivals and their volatility. Moreover, in an international context in which natural disasters, terrorism, crime and ethnic conflicts, among others, have significant impacts on tourism, it is crucial to assess the persistence of shocks on cruise passenger arrivals for effective crisis management plans, including different forms of co-operation among ports facing similar shocks. Appropriate models are required to enable optimal private and public decision making in designing ports for cruise ships. Daily cruise passenger arrivals data for the three major ports in the Balearic Islands, Spain, namely Palma, Ibiza and Mahon, for the period 1997-2006, as well as for the high cruise season for each island,are analyzed using alternative conditional mean and conditional volatility models in order to provide empirical support for purposes of optimal decision making. Four different types of asymmetries are analyzed according to the positive and negative shocks to daily cruise passenger arrivals, as well as from distinctions between the high and low cruise seasons. The estimates of cruise passenger arrivals and their volatility are generally found to be sensible and to have valid statistical properties. Likelihood ratio tests of the constancy of coefficients in the high and low cruise seasons indicate that the weekly delayed response of cruise passenger arrivals differ significantly spatially across islands and temporally across seasons.

"Risk Management for International Tourist Arrivals: An Application to the Balearic Islands, Spain"

Spain is a leader in terms of total international tourist arrivals and receipts. The Balearic Islands are one of the most popular destinations in Spain. For tourism management and marketing, it is essential to forecast tourist arrivals accurately. As it is important to provide sensible tourist forecast intervals, it is also necessary to model their variances accurately. Time-varying variances also provide useful information regarding the risk associated with tourist arrivals. This paper examines spatial aggregation across micro entities to more aggregated macro entities, in addition to temporal aggregation, for purposes of analyzing risk in tourism marketing and management. The paper examines four different types of asymmetric behaviour related to the effects of positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude on volatility. The paper analyzes daily air passenger arrivals from the Spanish National Airport Authority from 2001-06 to the Balearics, using time series models for the conditional mean and conditional volatility.

Evidencia para la economía española de la hipótesis Ricardiana en un modelo estocástico intertemporal

The empirical study presented is based on an intertemporal optimisation model based in that of Aschauer (1985). The results obtained clearly reject the joint hypothesis Ricardian Equivalence/rational expectations. The lagged values of public consumption and public deficit help to explain significatively the private consumption's variations, even if we leave aside the possible relationships of those lagged values with the public consumption's predictions. The results are robust to different hypotheses concerning the arder of integration and existence of cointegrating relationships among the variables. On the other hand, there is evidence of complementarity rather than sustituibility between public and private consumption.El estudio empírico que hemos realizado se basa en un modelo de optimización intertemporal análogo al de Aschauer (1985). Los resultados obtenidos rechazan claramente la hipótesis ricardiana/expectativas racionales. Los valores retardados de consumo público y déficit ayudan a explicar significativamente las variaciones del consumo privado, al margen de sus posibles relaciones con las predicciones del consumo público. Los resultados son robustos a distintas hipótesis acerca del orden de integrabilidad y existencia de relaciones de cointegración entre las variables implicadas. Por otro lado, hay evidencia de complementariedad más que de sustituibilidad entre consumo público y privado

AUMENTO DO TEMPO DE PERMANÊNCIA DOS TURISTAS NO BRASIL: NOVOS TURISTAS OU NOVOS COMPORTAMENTOS?

The average duration of tourism trips has decreased all over the world. However, curiously, this trend has not been observed in the Brazilian inbound tourism. There are two hypotheses for explaining this uncommon Brazilian reality: changes in the behavior of tourists visiting Brazil, and changes in the composition of the Brazilian inbound tourism flow. The endorsement of the first hypothesis would show that the evolution of tourist behavior over the last years was actually different in Brazil and in the rest of the world. This would evidence the occurrence of improvements in the quality of tourist experiences offered by Brazil. The present study aims to test this hypothesis by using duration models to analyze more than 211 thousand tourist surveys. Modeling individual tourist behavior allows to control for intervenient variables and to conduct a detailed analysis of the time effect on the expected tourists’ length of stay. Thirteen duration models are tested. The model with Weibull distributed hazard and Gamma distributed individual heterogeneity is selected. The estimates show that the increasing trend of tourists’ length of stay in Brazil is partially explained by changes in tourists’ behavior.En todo el mundo la duración media de las viajes se ha reducido. Mientras, curiosamente, esa tendencia no se ha observado en el turismo internacional receptivo de Brasil. Dos hipótesis pueden explicar la distinta realidad brasileña: cambios en el comportamiento de los turistas que visitan el país, y cambios en la composición del flujo turístico receptivo internacional brasileño. Una eventual confirmación de la primera hipótesis comprobaría que la evolución de lo comportamiento de los turistas en los últimos años fue efectivamente diferente en Brasil y en los otros países, evidenciando mejoramientos en la calidad de la experiencia turística ofertada por Brasil. Ese estudio testa esa hipótesis por medio del uso de modelos de duración basados en más de 211 mil encuestas con turistas. La modelización del comportamiento individual de los turistas permite controlar el efecto de las variables intervinientes, posibilitando una evaluación detallada del efecto temporal sobre la duración esperada de las estancias de los turistas. Trece modelos de duración son testados. El modelo con mejor ajuste a los datos tiene tasa de riesgo con distribución Weibull y heterogeneidad individual con distribución Gama. Los resultados apuntan que la tendencia creciente de la permanencia media es parcialmente explicada por un cambio en el comportamiento de los turistas.Em todo o mundo a duração média das viagens tem diminuído. No entanto, curiosamente, essa tendência não tem se revelado no turismo receptivo internacional do Brasil. Duas hipóteses podem explicar a incomum realidade brasileira: mudanças no comportamento dos turistas que visitam o país, e alterações na composição do fluxo turístico receptivo internacional brasileiro. Uma eventual confirmação da primeira hipótese mostraria que a evolução do comportamento dos turistas nos últimos anos foi efetivamente diferente no Brasil e nos demais países, evidenciando a ocorrência de melhorias na qualidade da experiência turística ofertada pelo Brasil. Este estudo objetiva testar essa hipótese através do uso de modelos de duração baseados em mais de 211 mil entrevistas. A modelagem do comportamento individual dos turistas torna possível controlar o efeito de variáveis intervenientes, permitindo uma avaliação detalhada do efeito temporal sobre a duração esperada das estadas dos turistas. Treze modelos de duração são testados. O modelo com melhor ajuste aos dados tem taxa de risco com distribuição Weibull e heterogeneidade individual com distribuição Gama. Os resultados apontam que a tendência crescente da permanência média é parcialmente explicada por uma mudança no comportamento dos turistas

Land, Environmental Externalities and Tourism Development

In a two sectors dynamic model we analyze the process of tourism development based on the accumulation of capital (building of tourism facilities) and the reallocation of land from traditional activities to the tourism sector. The model incorporates the conflict between occupation of the territory by the tourism facilities, other productive activities and availability of cultural, natural and environmental assets that are valued by residents and visitors. We characterize the process of tourism development in two settings: the socially optimal solution and a situation where the costs of tourism expansion are external to the decision makers, where externalities on residents as well as intraindustry externalities are considered. Regarding the optimal solution, we show that it is optimal to limit tourism expansion before it reaches its maximum capacity even in a context where the economic attractiveness of tourism relative to other productive sectors rise continuously. However, in this context and when all the costs of tourism development are externalities the only limit to tourism quantitative expansion is its maximum capacity determined by the availability of land. Finally, we show that excessive environmental degradation from the future generations' point of view is not a problem of discounting the future but rather a problem of externalities that affects negatively the current and future generations

A dynamic approach to voluntary environmental contributions in tourism

In an evolutionary game-theoretical model of tourism firms that use an endogenous natural Common Pool Resource (CPR) we show that stable equilibria with voluntary environmental initiatives may coexist with other equilibria where voluntary abatement is absent. The basins of attraction of the equilibria are identified and a bifurcation analysis is carried out producing two results with policy implications. First, there is a highly non-linear relationship between the cost of abatement required to be green and the share of green firms. Second, increases in the number of the CPR's users will ultimately dissipate the incentives to make abatement beyond regulation.Common-pool resource Voluntary environmental contributions Evolutionary framework Sustainable management Tourism

Can ecolabels survive in the long run?: The role of initial conditions

This paper analyzes the interaction between three environmental strategies within a population of firms: brown, green, and certified green strategies. We first present a restricted version of an evolutionary game where only brown and green strategies are possible. Next, the model is extended to allow green firms to certify their environmental strategies by joining an ecolabel. Our analysis shows that when it survives, the ecolabel tends to fully replace other uncertified environmental initiatives and to increase the proportion of firms implementing voluntary abatement. Nevertheless, the long-run survival of the ecolabel is not a necessary outcome of the model, although it can be facilitated via policies that reduce abatement or certification costs, increase consumer's environmental concerns or improve the credibility of the certifier, whereas it may be reduced by green-wash news about the sector. An ecolabel's survival may also depend on how and when it is launched. In those common situations where the model has two stable equilibria, initial conditions play a key role in determining the ecolabel's survival. Specifically important determinants are the degree of adoption of voluntary abatement when the ecolabel is launched and the amount and composition of firms that participate in the creation of the ecolabel.Voluntary environmental contributions Ecolabeling Evolutionary game theory Replicator dynamics Sustainable management Transitional dynamics