Self-organising an indoor location system using a paintable amorphous computer

This thesis investigates new methods for self-organising a precisely defined pattern of intertwined number sequences which may be used in the rapid deployment of a passive indoor positioning system's infrastructure.A future hypothetical scenario is used where computing particles are suspended in paint and covered over a ceiling. A spatial pattern is then formed over the covered ceiling. Any small portion of the spatial pattern may be decoded, by a simple camera equipped device, to provide a unique location to support location-aware pervasive computing applications.Such a pattern is established from the interactions of many thousands of locally connected computing particles that are disseminated randomly and densely over a surface, such as a ceiling. Each particle has initially no knowledge of its location or network topology and shares no synchronous clock or memory with any other particle.The challenge addressed within this thesis is how such a network of computing particles that begin in such an initial state of disarray and ignorance can, without outside intervention or expensive equipment, collaborate to create a relative coordinate system. It shows how the coordinate system can be created to be coherent, even in the face of obstacles, and closely represent the actual shape of the networked surface itself. The precision errors incurred during the propagation of the coordinate system are identified and the distributed algorithms used to avoid this error are explained and demonstrated through simulation.A new perimeter detection algorithm is proposed that discovers network edges and other obstacles without the use of any existing location knowledge. A new distributed localisation algorithm is demonstrated to propagate a relative coordinate system throughout the network and remain free of the error introduced by the network perimeter that is normally seen in non-convex networks. This localisation algorithm operates without prior configuration or calibration, allowing the coordinate system to be deployed without expert manual intervention or on networks that are otherwise inaccessible.The painted ceiling's spatial pattern, when based on the proposed localisation algorithm, is discussed in the context of an indoor positioning system

Association between stroke and psychosis across four nationally representative psychiatric epidemiological studies

BACKGROUND: Both stroke and psychosis are independently associated with high levels of disability. However, psychosis in the context of stroke has been under-researched. To date, there are no general population studies on their joint prevalence and association. AIMS: To estimate the joint prevalence of stroke and psychosis and their statistical association using nationally representative psychiatric epidemiology studies from two high-income countries (the UK and the USA) and two middle-income countries (Chile and Colombia) and, subsequently, in a combined-countries data-set. METHOD: Prevalences were calculated with 95% confidence intervals. Statistical associations between stroke and psychosis and between stroke and psychotic symptoms were tested using regression models. Overall estimates were calculated using an individual participant level meta-analysis on the combined-countries data-set. The analysis is available online as a computational notebook. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of probable psychosis in stroke was 3.81% (95% CI 2.34-5.82) and that of stroke in probable psychosis was 3.15% (95% CI 1.94-4.83). The odds ratio of the adjusted association between stroke and probable psychosis was 3.32 (95% CI 2.05-5.38). On the individual symptom level, paranoia, hallucinated voices and thought passivity delusion were associated with stroke in the unadjusted and adjusted analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of association between psychosis and stroke suggest there is likely to be a high clinical need group who are under-researched and may be poorly served by existing services

Association between stroke and psychosis across four nationally representative psychiatric epidemiological studies

Background Both stroke and psychosis are independently associated with high levels of disability. However, psychosis in the context of stroke has been under-researched. To date, there are no general population studies on their joint prevalence and association. Aims To estimate the joint prevalence of stroke and psychosis and their statistical association using nationally representative psychiatric epidemiology studies from two high-income countries (the UK and the USA) and two middle-income countries (Chile and Colombia) and, subsequently, in a combined-countries data-set. Method Prevalences were calculated with 95% confidence intervals. Statistical associations between stroke and psychosis and between stroke and psychotic symptoms were tested using regression models. Overall estimates were calculated using an individual participant level meta-analysis on the combined-countries data-set. The analysis is available online as a computational notebook. Results The overall prevalence of probable psychosis in stroke was 3.81% (95% CI 2.34–5.82) and that of stroke in probable psychosis was 3.15% (95% CI 1.94–4.83). The odds ratio of the adjusted association between stroke and probable psychosis was 3.32 (95% CI 2.05–5.38). On the individual symptom level, paranoia, hallucinated voices and thought passivity delusion were associated with stroke in the unadjusted and adjusted analyses. Conclusions Rates of association between psychosis and stroke suggest there is likely to be a high clinical need group who are under-researched and may be poorly served by existing services

Gut microbiomes from Gambian infants reveal the development of a non-industrialized Prevotella-based trophic network.

Funder: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Grand Challenges New Interventions in Global Health awardFunder: MRC Unit The Gambia/MRC International Nutrition Group by the UK MRC and the UK Department for the International DevelopmentDistinct bacterial trophic networks exist in the gut microbiota of individuals in industrialized and non-industrialized countries. In particular, non-industrialized gut microbiomes tend to be enriched with Prevotella species. To study the development of these Prevotella-rich compositions, we investigated the gut microbiota of children aged between 7 and 37 months living in rural Gambia (616 children, 1,389 stool samples, stratified by 3-month age groups). These infants, who typically eat a high-fibre, low-protein diet, were part of a double-blind, randomized iron intervention trial (NCT02941081) and here we report the secondary outcome. We found that child age was the largest discriminating factor between samples and that anthropometric indices (collection time points, season, geographic collection site, and iron supplementation) did not significantly influence the gut microbiome. Prevotella copri, Faecalibacterium prausnitzii and Prevotella stercorea were, on average, the most abundant species in these 1,389 samples (35%, 11% and 7%, respectively). Distinct bacterial trophic network clusters were identified, centred around either P. stercorea or F. prausnitzii and were found to develop steadily with age, whereas P. copri, independently of other species, rapidly became dominant after weaning. This dataset, set within a critical gut microbial developmental time frame, provides insights into the development of Prevotella-rich gut microbiomes, which are typically understudied and are underrepresented in western populations

Gut microbiomes from Gambian infants reveal the development of a non-industrialized Prevotella-based trophic network.

Funder: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Grand Challenges New Interventions in Global Health awardFunder: MRC Unit The Gambia/MRC International Nutrition Group by the UK MRC and the UK Department for the International DevelopmentDistinct bacterial trophic networks exist in the gut microbiota of individuals in industrialized and non-industrialized countries. In particular, non-industrialized gut microbiomes tend to be enriched with Prevotella species. To study the development of these Prevotella-rich compositions, we investigated the gut microbiota of children aged between 7 and 37 months living in rural Gambia (616 children, 1,389 stool samples, stratified by 3-month age groups). These infants, who typically eat a high-fibre, low-protein diet, were part of a double-blind, randomized iron intervention trial (NCT02941081) and here we report the secondary outcome. We found that child age was the largest discriminating factor between samples and that anthropometric indices (collection time points, season, geographic collection site, and iron supplementation) did not significantly influence the gut microbiome. Prevotella copri, Faecalibacterium prausnitzii and Prevotella stercorea were, on average, the most abundant species in these 1,389 samples (35%, 11% and 7%, respectively). Distinct bacterial trophic network clusters were identified, centred around either P. stercorea or F. prausnitzii and were found to develop steadily with age, whereas P. copri, independently of other species, rapidly became dominant after weaning. This dataset, set within a critical gut microbial developmental time frame, provides insights into the development of Prevotella-rich gut microbiomes, which are typically understudied and are underrepresented in western populations

Cost-effectiveness of public-health policy options in the presence of pretreatment NNRTI drug resistance in sub-Saharan Africa : a modelling study

BACKGROUND: There is concern over increasing prevalence of non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance in people initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low-income and middle-income countries. We assessed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative public health responses in countries in sub-Saharan Africa where the prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance to NNRTIs is high. METHODS: The HIV Synthesis Model is an individual-based simulation model of sexual HIV transmission, progression, and the effect of ART in adults, which is based on extensive published data sources and considers specific drugs and resistance mutations. We used this model to generate multiple setting scenarios mimicking those in sub-Saharan Africa and considered the prevalence of pretreatment NNRTI drug resistance in 2017. We then compared effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative policy options. We took a 20 year time horizon, used a cost effectiveness threshold of US$500 per DALY averted, and discounted DALYs and costs at 3% per year. FINDINGS: A transition to use of a dolutegravir as a first-line regimen in all new ART initiators is the option predicted to produce the most health benefits, resulting in a reduction of about 1 death per year per 100 people on ART over the next 20 years in a situation in which more than 10% of ART initiators have NNRTI resistance. The negative effect on population health of postponing the transition to dolutegravir increases substantially with higher prevalence of HIV drug resistance to NNRTI in ART initiators. Because of the reduced risk of resistance acquisition with dolutegravir-based regimens and reduced use of expensive second-line boosted protease inhibitor regimens, this policy option is also predicted to lead to a reduction of overall programme cost. INTERPRETATION: A future transition from first-line regimens containing efavirenz to regimens containing dolutegravir formulations in adult ART initiators is predicted to be effective and cost-effective in low-income settings in sub-Saharan Africa at any prevalence of pre-ART NNRTI resistance. The urgency of the transition will depend largely on the country-specific prevalence of NNRTI resistance. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, World Health Organization

Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models.

BACKGROUND: New WHO guidelines recommend ART initiation for HIV-positive persons with CD4 cell counts ≤500 cells/µL, a higher threshold than was previously recommended. Country decision makers must consider whether to further expand ART eligibility accordingly. METHODS: We used multiple independent mathematical models in four settings-South Africa, Zambia, India, and Vietnam-to evaluate the potential health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of different adult ART eligibility criteria under scenarios of current and expanded treatment coverage, with results projected over 20 years. Analyses considered extending eligibility to include individuals with CD4 ≤500 cells/µL or all HIV-positive adults, compared to the previous recommendation of initiation with CD4 ≤350 cells/µL. We assessed costs from a health system perspective, and calculated the incremental cost per DALY averted ($/DALY) to compare competing strategies. Strategies were considered 'very cost-effective' if the$/DALY was less than the country's per capita gross domestic product (GDP; South Africa: $8040, Zambia:$1425, India: $1489, Vietnam:$1407) and 'cost-effective' if $/DALY was less than three times per capita GDP. FINDINGS: In South Africa, the cost per DALY averted of extending ART eligibility to CD4 ≤500 cells/µL ranged from$237 to $1691/DALY compared to 2010 guidelines; in Zambia, expanded eligibility ranged from improving health outcomes while reducing costs (i.e. dominating current guidelines) to$749/DALY. Results were similar in scenarios with substantially expanded treatment access and for expanding eligibility to all HIV-positive adults. Expanding treatment coverage in the general population was therefore found to be cost-effective. In India, eligibility for all HIV-positive persons ranged from $131 to$241/DALY and in Vietnam eligibility for CD4 ≤500 cells/µL cost $290/DALY. In concentrated epidemics, expanded access among key populations was also cost-effective. INTERPRETATION: Earlier ART eligibility is estimated to be very cost-effective in low- and middle-income settings, although these questions should be revisited as further information becomes available. Scaling-up ART should be considered among other high-priority health interventions competing for health budgets. FUNDING: The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and World Health Organization