Assessing the role of migration as trade-facilitator using the statistical mechanics of cooperative systems

Interactions between natives and foreign-born individuals may help to stimulate the development and the diversification of bilateral trade relationships. In fact, migrants act as trade facilitators reducing transaction costs in export activities and, consequently, more local firms are able to establish new trade relationships abroad. The pro-trade effect of migration is well evidenced in several works where the shape of the trade-migration relationship has been examined empirically; however, they all lack an analytical model that enables them to predict the expected non-linear relationship between migration and trade. Here, using statistical mechanics tools we develop a simple model that demonstrates that there is a positive non-linear relationship between the extensive margin of trade and the proportion of migrants in the total population. Data on Spanish trade and migration provide support for the predictions made by the theoretical model. The model also suggests the need of a critical mass of migrants before their interactions with the natives have any effective impact on trade. The threshold is sensitive to the nationality of the migrants, suggesting that cultural differences between natives and migrants may affect the number of migrants needed to generate a positive impact on trade. Furthermore, we examine the possible relationship between the share of migrants in the total population and the extent of diversification of the portfolio of exported goods, finding evidence of a strong positive correlation. Our approach can be used to examine other related issues such as the impact of formal or informal firm networks on trade

Quality-Adjusted Prices of Japanese Mobile Phone Handsets and Carriers’ Strategies

Quality-adjusted price, Hedonic regression, Strategies, C43, D43, L96,

Irreversible exit decisions under mean-reverting uncertainty

Although many economic variables of interest exhibit a tendency to revert to long-run levels, mean reverting processes are rarely used in investment and disinvestment models in the literature. Previous work by Sarkar (J Econ Dyn Control 28(2):377–396, 2003), that focuses on irreversible entry decisions, showed that mean reversion has three effects on investment: (a) the “variance effect” (mean reversion reduces the long-run uncertainty and thus brings closer the critical investment level), (b) the “realized price effect” (the lower variance resulting from mean reversion makes it less likely to reach extreme high or low price levels, thereby reducing the likelihood of reaching the investment trigger) and (c) the “risk discounting effect” (mean reversion lowers the required rate of return, which affects both the project value and the value of the real option to invest). Metcalf and Hassett (J Econ Dyn Control 19(8):1471–1488, 1995) and Sarkar (J Econ Dyn Control 28(2):377–396, 2003) showed that (a) and (b) work in opposite directions, essentially canceling each other out, however the effect of (c) depends on parameter values, making the overall effect (a–c) of mean reversion on entry decisions ambiguous and parameter-dependent. In this paper, we show that as far as irreversible exit decisions are concerned, the effect of mean reversion is negative: Mean reversion unambiguously lowers the rate of irreversible disinvestment/exit for reasonable parameter values, since the mean reversion in this case only affects the value of the real option to exit and not the value resulting from (real) option exercise