A Mutually-Dependent Hadamard Kernel for Modelling Latent Variable Couplings

We introduce a novel kernel that models input-dependent couplings across multiple latent processes. The pairwise joint kernel measures covariance along inputs and across different latent signals in a mutually-dependent fashion. A latent correlation Gaussian process (LCGP) model combines these non-stationary latent components into multiple outputs by an input-dependent mixing matrix. Probit classification and support for multiple observation sets are derived by Variational Bayesian inference. Results on several datasets indicate that the LCGP model can recover the correlations between latent signals while simultaneously achieving state-of-the-art performance. We highlight the latent covariances with an EEG classification dataset where latent brain processes and their couplings simultaneously emerge from the model.Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures; accepted to ACML 201

Middle class decline in Finland 1995-2012 : Decomposition and directional mobility

This paper investigates middle class decline in Finland from 1995 to 2012. The purpose was to examine the subgroup contributions, the role of structural change, and directional mobility. Change in middle class rate was decomposed to study contributions of group-specific rates and structural changes, and the directional mobility was analysed by changes in individuals' income status. The results from earlier studies about the middle class decline in Finland were confirmed, and decomposition analysis indicates that the majority of the decline has been due to the rate-effect, especially among the lowest educated population. Furthermore, changes in age and education structures have contributed to the decline, while the structural change in primary activity status has had a counteracting effect. Results of the decomposition are supported by the mobility results, which indicate that population with tertiary (no secondary) degree have been subject to upward (downward) mobility over the observed time period. In conclusion, the middle class decline and polarization in Finland have asymmetrically affected different education groups. Most educated have climbed up the income distribution, while the lowest educated group have fallen

Makrotalouden olosuhteiden tulonjaolliset vaikutukset Suomessa 1987-2013 parametrisen jakauman estimointimenetelmällä

Tulonjakoon liittyvät kysymykset ovat nousseet viime vuosina julkiseen keskusteluun. Taloustieteen akateemisissa yhteisöissä tulonjako ja sen muutokset ovat olleet kiistelty aihe vuosien ajan. Aiheena tulonjako herättää paljon mielipiteitä ja tunteita. Näkemykset optimaalisen tulonjaon tasosta ovat usein ideologiaan perustuvia arvovalintoja, jotka riippuvat monista eri tekijöistä kuten kulttuurista ja aikakaudesta. Tuloeroihin eli tulonjaon epätasaisuuteen liittyy myös vahvasti tunne oikeudenmukaisuudesta ja reiluudesta. Taloudellisten ilmiöiden vaikutukset tulonjakoon voivat kuitenkin olla hyvinkin kaukana reiluudesta. Onkin tärkeää ymmärtää kuinka erilaiset talouden ilmiöt ja olosuhteet vaikuttavat mahdollisuuksiin niin yksilötasolla kuin kansantaloudellisesti. Tämä pro gradu -tutkielma tarkastelee makrotaloudellisten muuttujien tulonjaollisia vaikutuksia käyttäen Suomen tulo-osuusaineistoa käytettävistä tuloista vuosina 1987-2013. Tutkimuksessa sovelletaan ekonometrista parametrisen jakauman sovittamisen menetelmää, jossa tulojakaumaan sovitetun teoreettisen jakauman parametreja selitetään makrotalouden muuttujilla SUR-mallin avulla. Tutkielmassa kiinnitetään erityistä huomiota aikasarjan ekonometristen ongelmien testausmenettelyyn, ja estimoidaan stokastisuudesta ja autokorrelaatiosta korjatut mallit. Tutkielman rakenne seuraa ekonometriselle tutkielmalle tyypillistä rakennetta, jossa pääpaino on käytetyn tutkimusmenetelmän ja estimointitulosten esittämisessä sekä päätelmissä. Estimoitujen SUR-moniyhtälömallien tulokset ovat yhteneväisiä talouden kasvun tulonjaollisista vaikutuksista Suomessa. Talouden kasvu lisää ylimpien tuloluokkien tulo-osuuksia samalla kun keskiluokan ja alimpien tuloluokkien tulo-osuudet pienenevät, eli talouden kasvu lisää tuloeroja. Inflaatioasteen kasvulla vaikuttaa olevan positiivinen yhteys sekä köyhimpien että kaikkein hyvätuloisimpien tulo-osuuteen. Inflaatioasteen muutoksesta kärsii tämän vuoksi lähinnä keskiluokka. Inflaatioasteen muutoksen vaikutus ei kuitenkaan ole tilastollisesti merkitsevä kaikkien mallien osalta vaan on riippuvainen mallin spesifikaatiosta. Työllisyysasteen muutos vaikuttaa päinvastoin olevan positiivisessa yhteydessä juuri keskiluokan tulo-osuuteen, joskin vaikutuksen tilastollinen merkitsevyys on niin ikään riippuvainen mallin spesifikaatiosta. Tutkielman toinen päähavainto liittyy makrotaloudellisten ilmiöiden tulonjaon polarisaatiota lisääviin vaikutuksiin, jossa ylimpien tuloluokkien tulo-osuuden kasvu vähentää erityisesti keskiluokan tulo-osuutta. Tulojen polarisoitumisella uskotaan olevan niin kansantaloudellisia kuin yhteiskunnallisia haittoja, joiden vaikutukset tulisi ottaa huomioon raha- ja talouspolitiikan suunnittelussa

Characterizing unknown events in MEG data with group factor analysis

Many current neuroscientic experiments can be seen as data analysis problems with two or more data sources: brain activity and stimulus features or, as in this paper, activity of two brains. These setups have been analyzed with Canonical Correlation Analysis or its multiple-source probabilistic extension Group Factor Analysis, which capture statistical dependencies between the data sources in correlating components. We relax the assumption of global correlations and search for correlating signals related to discrete events. The assumption is that the sources correlate only during events with known timings, nferred from a stimulus stream for instance, but the type or nature of each event is not known. The unsupervised modelling of the events can then be viewed as a generalization of conditional averaging. We apply the model on two-person MEG measurements, in a demonstration task of identifying which of the two persons utters a word.Peer reviewe

Parents know it best : Prediction of asthma and lung function by parental perception of early wheezing episodes

Background Childhood asthma is often preceded by early wheeze. Usually, wheezing episodes are recorded retrospectively, which may induce recall bias. Aims and objectives The aim of this study was to investigate true-positive recall of parent-reported wheeze at 1 year of age, its determinants, and its implications for asthma and lung function at 6 years of age. Methods The PASTURE (Protection Against Allergy-Study in Rural Environments) study followed 880 children from rural areas in 5 European countries from birth to age 6 years. Wheeze symptoms in the first year were asked weekly. At age 6, parent-reported asthma diagnosis was ascertained and lung function measurements were conducted. Correct parental recall of wheeze episodes at the end of the first year was assessed for associations with lung function, asthma, and the asthma risk locus on chromosome 17q21. Results Parents correctly recalled wheeze after the first year in 54% of wheezers. This true-positive recall was determined by number of episodes, timing of the last wheeze episode, and parental asthma. Independently from these determinants, true-positive recall predicted asthma at age 6 years (odds ratio 4.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) [1.75-14.16]) and impaired lung function (beta = -0.62, 95% CI [-1.12; -0.13], P-value = .02). Associations were stronger in children with asthma risk SNPs on chromosome 17q21. Conclusion Correct parental recall of wheezing episodes may reflect clinical relevance of early wheeze and its impact on subsequent asthma and lung function impairment. Questions tailored to parental perception of wheezing episodes may further enhance asthma prediction.Peer reviewe

Tracking of Serum DHEAS Concentrations from Age 1 to 6 Years : A Prospective Cohort Study

Context: Adrenarche is a gradual process, but its programming is unknown. Objective: The objective of this article is to examine the trajectory of dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS) from age 1 to 6 years and the associations of early growth with DHEAS concentration by age 6 years. Design and participants: Longitudinal data from a population sample of 78 children (43 girls) with serum samples for DHEAS and insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) measurements available at ages 1 and 6 years. Main outcome measure: Serum DHEAS concentration at age 6 years. Results: DHEAS concentration at age 1 year correlated with DHEAS concentration at age 6 years (r = 0.594, P <.001). DHEAS levels at age 6 years increased with tertiles of DHEAS at age 1 year (medians (mu g/dL); 4.2, 14.4, 22.6; P <.001) and with those of greater increase in length by age 1 year (6.0, 11.7, 16.4; P = .047), and decreased with Wailes of birth length (17.7, 13.3, 7.1; P = .042). In a regression model including birth size, biochemical covariates at age 1 year, and growth measures by age 6 years, higher DHEAS concentration at age 1 year was an independent determinant of falling into the highest DHEAS tertile at age 6 years. Conclusions: Higher serum DHEAS concentrations already at age 1 year are associated with those at age 6 years. Also, shorter birth length and rapid catch-up growth in length by age 1 year are associated with higher DHEAS concentrations at age 6 years. These results corroborate the early origin of adrenarche and strongly suggest that part of adrenarchal programming already takes place by the end of infancy. (C) Endocrine Society 2020.Peer reviewe

Bronchial hyperresponsiveness and asthma during oral immunotherapy for egg or peanut allergy in children

Background Bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR) and asthma are frequently present in children with food allergy. We assessed BHR in children receiving oral immunotherapy (OIT) for persistent egg or peanut allergy and examined whether OIT affects asthma control. Methods Methacholine challenge testing was performed in 89 children with persistent egg or peanut allergy diagnosed by double-blind, placebo-controlled food challenge and 80 control children without food allergy. Of the 89 food-allergic children, 50 started OIT for egg allergy and 39 for peanut allergy. Sensitization to aeroallergens was evaluated by skin prick testing. Forty of the 89 children with regular controller treatment for asthma underwent methacholine challenge testing and 34 measurement of exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) at baseline and after 6-12 months of OIT. Results Methacholine challenge testing revealed significant BHR in 29/50 children (58%) with egg allergy, 15/39 children (38%) with peanut allergy, and 6/80 controls (7.5%). The mean cumulative dose of methacholine causing a 20% fall in FEV1 differed significantly between the egg and peanut-allergic versus the control children (1009 mu g, 1104 mu g, and 2068 mu g, respectively, p < 0.001). Egg or peanut OIT did not affect lung function, the degree of BHR or FeNO levels in children with asthma and had no adverse effect on asthma control. Lung function or BHR did not associate with the OIT outcome. Conclusion BHR was significantly more frequent in children with persistent egg or peanut allergy than in children without food allergy. Oral immunotherapy did not increase BHR and was safe for children on regular asthma medication.Peer reviewe