Como as condições do mercado de trabalho influenciam as transições do desemprego para o emprego?

This paper analyzes the unemployment duration in Brazil between 2012 and 2017, comparing two very different points in time. There was substantial disparity in labor market conditions over the period investigated.The period 2012-2013 had low unemployment rates, whereas the unemployment rate reached high levels in the period 2016-2017. According to estimates, high levels of unemployment are associated with a lowerprobability of finding a job. The results also show that reductions in the rates of transition from unemployment to better jobs are more accentuatedthan those related to low quality jobs during recessions.Esse artigo procura analisar a probabilidade de transição do desemprego para o emprego no Brasil durante o período de 2012 a 2017, comparando o subperíodo inicial, quando o mercado de trabalho se encontrava com uma taxa de desemprego relativamente baixa, com o subperíodo final, com taxas de desemprego elevadas. Os resultados mostram que a probabilidade de um indivíduo desempregado encontrar um emprego é menor quando a taxa de desemprego é mais elevada, e que com uma situação desfavorável no mercado de trabalho as maiores reduções na probabilidade de saída do desemprego se dão em transições para empregos de melhor qualidade

Os ensinos público e privado no Brasil e a incidência de sobre-educação no mercado de trabalho

Overeducation refers to the extent to which workers acquired education levels in excess of that required by their jobs. Low educational level is pointed out as a determinant for the incidence of overeducation, which is usually associated with negative labor market outcomes. According to this argument, poorly educated workers are only qualified for jobs that require less years of schooling than they obtained. This paper aims to investigate the relationship between the probability of overeducation and the type of educational system (public or private education, which have quite different quality levels in Brazil). Estimates show that workers with secondary education who completed their study in public schools are more likely to be overeducated than those who completed their secondary education in private schools, which usually have better quality than the former ones. Among workers with a bachelor’s degree, those who completed their programs in public institutions, which usually have better quality than private ones for higher education, are less likely to be overeducated.A baixa qualidade da educação costuma ser apontada como um dos fatores responsáveis pela incidência de sobre-educação, pois trabalhadores com determinado nível educacional não estariam capacitados para exercer as atividades compatíveis com os anos de estudo que completaram. O objetivo desse artigo é investigar a relação entre a rede de ensino e a probabilidade de sobre-educação no Brasil, explorando as diferenças de qualidade entre instituições públicas e privadas. De acordo com os resultados, entre os indivíduos com ensino médio, os egressos de escolas públicas tem maior probabilidade de serem sobre-educados, enquanto para o ensino superior é verificado o contrário

Poverty, inequality and macroeconomic instability

Over the past seventeen years the Brazilian macroeconomic performance has been considerably weaker than in previous decades. Inflation reached unprecedented levels and economic growth declined considerably. In this study we use monthly time series to access the relation between this weak and unstable macroeconomic performance on poverty and inequality. The estimates using aggregated and pooling time series reveal that inflation seems to have little association with inequality and particularly with poverty. However, since the variation in the monthly inflation rate over the past seventeen years has been very substantial, the associated variation of poverty became quite significant. As far as the impact of unemployment is concerned, the estimates indicate relatively weak relation between this variable and poverty or inequality. Finally, time-varying regressions indicate that the major results of this study, although applicable to most of the period analyzed, may not necessarily reflect the current situation. In fact, the time-varying estimates reveal a sharp recent decline in the association between unemployment and poverty or inequality, consistent with the drop in poverty and inequality in 1995, despite a considerably increase in the unemployment rate. There is also evidence that the relation between inflation and poverty or inequality declines as inflation accelerates.Nas últimas duas décadas, o Brasil experimentou uma performance macroeconômica muito aquém da registrada para o período imediatamente anterior. A inflação alcançou níveis sem precedentes e o crescimento econômico desacelerou consideravelmente. Neste artigo, usamos séries de tempo mensais para estimar a relação entre a performance macroeconômica e os níveis de pobreza e desigualdade no Brasil. As estimativas usando tanto dados agregados como um pooling de series regionais revelam que a inflação parece estar pouco relacionada com pobreza e desigualdade. No entanto, quando se leva em consideração que a variação na taxa mensal de inflação foi bastante alta, mostra-se que as variações correspondentes nos níveis de pobreza e desigualdade são significativas. Com relação ao desemprego, as estimativas indicam uma tênue relação desta variável com pobreza e desigualdade. Finalmente, quando consideramos a possibilidade destas relações estimadas variarem ao longo do período analisado, foi identificada uma mudança nas estimativas relacionadas ao período mais recente (pós-Real). De fato, a relação entre desemprego e pobreza ou desigualdade se torna bem mais tênue no final do período, o que parece consistente com a queda da pobreza observada a partir de 1995, quando o desemprego assume uma trajetória ascendente. Tambem há evidências de que a relação entre inflação e pobreza ou desigualdade é mais fraca nos períodos de aceleração inflacionária

Critérios de classificação para ocupação informal: consequências para a caracterização do setor informal e para a análise de bem-estar no Brasil

In this paper we aim to analyze how sensible is the informal worker profile to distinctclassification procedures, as well as to analyze the sensibility of the link between informalityand welfare to the same procedures. A disaggregated analysis by employers andemployees is one contribution of the paper, which also innovates using informationon being included in an official tax payer administrative file (CNPJ) to one of the classificationprocedures employed to the employers. Two out of three procedures sharevery similar results in terms of informal worker profile and the link between informalityand welfare. These are the procedure based on social security contribution, and theone based on CNPJ for employers and based on legal labor contracts for employees.O objetivo deste artigo é identificar a sensibilidade da caracterização do trabalhador informal a distintos critérios de classificação entre formal e informal e mostrar como a relação entre informalidade e medidas de bem-estar dos trabalhadores varia com o critério de classificação adotado. Como contribuições à literatura temos a análise desagregada para os grupos de empregados e empresários e o uso de um critério recém-disponibilizado para classificar os empresários em formais ou informais, baseado na informação sobre a inclusão no Cadastro Nacional de Pessoa Jurídica (CNPJ). De forma geral tanto a caracterização do setor informal como a relação entre informalidade e bem-estar são muito parecidas em dois dos três critérios aqui usados; que são o critério via contribuição à previdência e o critério baseado no CNPJ para empresários e na carteira de trabalho para empregados

Uma análise da relação entre tecnologia no local de trabalho e rendimentos no Brasil

Diferenças na qualidade dos postos de trabalho podem estar associadas, pelo menos em parte, aos elevados níveis de desigualdade de rendimentos observados entre os trabalhadores no Brasil. Este artigo procura analisar a relação entre rendimentos no mercado de trabalho e uma medida do nível de tecnologia disponível no posto, e as implicações dessa relação para a desigualdade de rendimentos no Brasil. Usando dados do suplemento sobre inovação tecnológica da PNAD (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios) de 2005 e 2008, são encontradas evidências de que trabalhadores com acesso a novas tecnologias no local de trabalho recebem rendimentos substancialmente mais elevados, mesmo em setores onde não se espera que a tecnologia tenha um impacto direto expressivo sobre a produtividade. Os resultados sugerem que disparidades na qualidade dos postos de trabalho podem ser importantes na determinação da distribuição de rendimentos do trabalho.Part of the high level of earnings inequality verified among workers in Brazil could be associated with differences in the quality of jobs. This paper analyzes the relationship between labor earnings and a measure of the technology available in the workplace and the implications of this relationship to earnings inequality in Brazil. Using data from the supplement on technological innovation in the 2005 and 2008 PNAD (National Household Sample Survey), the results show that workers with access to new technologies in the workplace receive higher earnings, even in sectors where technology should not affect productivity. Evidence suggests that disparities in the quality of jobs may have an important role on the distribution of labor earnings in Brazil

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030