The sensitivity of seismic refraction velocity models to survey geometry errors, assessed using Monte Carlo analysis

Seismic refraction models should routinely be reported with their associated uncertainty. Tomographic solutions are widespread, but estimating uncertainties in these via Monte Carlo simulation places great demands on computer resource, hence this task is often omitted. By considering the Plus-Minus method of seismic refraction interpretation, we use Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the uncertainty in seismic refraction results and determine the sources of uncertainty that are most impactful on the reliability of the output model. Our analysis considers the impact of survey mislocation (i.e., geophones misplaced from a planned position) and interpretational problems (i.e., misidentification of first-break picks and uncertainty in identifying crossover distances) on the overall uncertainty in inferred unit thicknesses and seismic velocities. These are considered for synthetic data with varying subsurface velocity structure, and for field data collected at a shallow (< 50 m) bedrock site in north Wales (UK). Analysis of synthetic data shows that the impact of the aforementioned errors on thickness estimates is ∼1000 times that on velocity estimates. Of all permutations tested, the most significant impact on thickness uncertainty was the accuracy of first-break picks, with the variance in target thickness estimates increasing roughly exponentially with first-break pick uncertainty. It is therefore prudent to minimise such uncertainty through appropriate survey practice (e.g., maximising source energy, taking multiple shots for stacking) and to properly define the resultant uncertainty in unit thickness and velocity estimates. The simplicity of the Plus-Minus method makes it an effective tool for highlighting the errors that would impact more sophisticated interpretation approaches, such as tomography or Full Waveform Inversion. The results from such analysis can be directly applied in straightforward environmental or engineering investigations and can be used to inform more advanced refraction methods. As such, the practice we highlight should be considered for any refraction interpretation

Subglacial sediment distribution from constrained seismic inversion, using MuLTI software: Examples from Midtdalsbreen, Norway

Fast ice flow is associated with the deformation of subglacial sediment. Seismic shear velocities, Vs, increase with the rigidity of material and hence can be used to distinguish soft sediment from hard bedrock substrates. Depth profiles of Vs can be obtained from inversions of Rayleigh wave dispersion curves, from passive or active-sources, but these can be highly ambiguous and lack depth sensitivity. Our novel Bayesian transdimensional algorithm, MuLTI, circumvents these issues by adding independent depth constraints to the inversion, also allowing comprehensive uncertainty analysis. We apply MuLTI to the inversion of a Rayleigh wave dataset, acquired using active-source (Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves) techniques, to characterise sediment distribution beneath the frontal margin of Midtdalsbreen, an outlet of Norway's Hardangerjøkulen ice cap. Ice thickness (0–20 m) is constrained using co-located GPR data. Outputs from MuLTI suggest that partly-frozen sediment (Vs 500–1000 m s−1), overlying bedrock (Vs 2000–2500 m s−1), is present in patches with a thickness of ~4 m, although this approaches the resolvable limit of our Rayleigh wave frequencies (14–100 Hz). Uncertainties immediately beneath the glacier bed are <280 m s−1, implying that MuLTI cannot only distinguish bedrock and sediment substrates but does so with an accuracy sufficient for resolving variations in sediment properties

Ice loss from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet during late Pleistocene interglacials

Understanding ice sheet behaviour in the geological past is essential for evaluating the role of the cryosphere in the climate system and for projecting rates and magnitudes of sea level rise in future warming scenarios1,2,3,4. Although both geological data5,6,7 and ice sheet models3,8 indicate that marine-based sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet were unstable during Pliocene warm intervals, the ice sheet dynamics during late Pleistocene interglacial intervals are highly uncertain3,9,10. Here we provide evidence from marine sedimentological and geochemical records for ice margin retreat or thinning in the vicinity of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin of East Antarctica during warm late Pleistocene interglacial intervals. The most extreme changes in sediment provenance, recording changes in the locus of glacial erosion, occurred during marine isotope stages 5, 9, and 11, when Antarctic air temperatures11 were at least two degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial temperatures for 2,500 years or more. Hence, our study indicates a close link between extended Antarctic warmth and ice loss from the Wilkes Subglacial Basin, providing ice-proximal data to support a contribution to sea level from a reduced East Antarctic Ice Sheet during warm interglacial intervals. While the behaviour of other regions of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet remains to be assessed, it appears that modest future warming may be sufficient to cause ice loss from the Wilkes Subglacial Basin