Warmer temperatures increase disease transmission and outbreak intensity in a host-pathogen system

Summary: While rising global temperatures are increasingly affecting both species and their biotic interactions, the debate about whether global warming will increase or decrease disease transmission between individuals remains far from resolved. This may stem from the lack of empirical data. Using a tractable and easily manipulated insect host-pathogen system, we conducted a series of field and laboratory experiments to examine how increased temperatures affect disease transmission using the crop-defoliating pest, the fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) and its species-specific baculovirus, which causes a fatal infection. To examine the effects of temperature on disease transmission in the field, we manipulated baculovirus density and temperature. As infection occurs when a host consumes leaf tissue on which the pathogen resides, baculovirus density was controlled by placing varying numbers of infected neonate larvae on experimental plants. Temperature was manipulated by using open-top chambers (OTCs). The laboratory experiments examined how increased temperatures affect fall armyworm feeding and development rates, which provide insight into how host feeding behaviour and physiology may affect transmission. Disease transmission and outbreak intensity, measured as the cumulative fraction infected during an epizootic, increased at higher temperatures. However, there was no appreciable change in the mean transmission rate of the disease, which is often the focus of empirical and theoretical research. Instead, the coefficient of variation (CV) associated with the transmission rate shrunk. As the CV decreased, heterogeneity in disease risk across individuals declined, which resulted in an increase in outbreak intensity. In the laboratory, increased temperatures increased feeding rates and decreased developmental times. As the host consumes the virus along with the leaf tissue on which it resides, increased feeding rate is likely to increase the probability of an individual consuming virus-infected leaf tissue. On the other hand, decreased developmental time increases the sloughing of midgut cells, which is predicted to hinder viral infection. Increases in outbreak intensity or epizootic severity, as the climate warms, may lead to changes in the long-term dynamics of pests whose populations are strongly affected by host-pathogen interactions. Overall, this work demonstrates that the usual assumptions governing these effects, via changes in the mean transmission rate alone, may not be correct. The effects of climate change on disease transmission usually involve examining differences in transmission rates under various temperature regimes. Using empirical data from a field experiment, the authors show that variability about the rate of transmission may be equally if not more important when considering global warming. © 2013 British Ecological Society

Effects of biological control on long-term population dynamics: Identifying unexpected outcomes

Attempts to control natural systems through management have often met with success but have also led to unexpected and often undesirable outcomes. Unfortunately, the ultimate result of such management programmes may not be apparent until long after the control efforts have begun. This is particularly true for forest-defoliating species that exhibit long-period cycles such as the invasive gypsy moth Lymantria dispar, which causes widespread damage in some years but is rare in other years. We studied the effects of two commonly employed biocontrol agents on gypsy moth dynamics using a series of field-tested and empirically parameterized mathematical models, which allowed us to examine various potential control strategies and assess long-term effects. In a non-spatial model, addition of either a manufactured version of the same baculovirus involved in natural epizootics, or a general bioinsecticide Bacillus thuringiensis var. kurstaki (Btk), which directly kills a fraction of the population, decreases the amplitude between boom and bust portions of the cycle. However, ill-planned biocontrol applications can result in increased gypsy moth densities over the long term. Thus, control efforts may maintain pest populations at unexpectedly high numbers, which could result in constant forest defoliation. In a spatial two-patch model, where one patch is sprayed and the other is left untreated, there is also considerable danger that migration between patches may drive the unsprayed population to levels that could result in constant forest defoliation. Synthesis and applications: Perturbations to host-pathogen systems may have unexpected results, driving and maintaining populations at multiple levels including those far from desired management goals. It is often assumed that any control strategy that decreases pest populations in the short term is beneficial, but our results show that undesirable outcomes may often occur. The mechanisms we describe apply to many systems that undergo population cycles or outbreaks regulated by density-dependent processes, and in which disease or pesticide application is used for pest control. We suggest that successful management strategies should closely monitor population responses immediately following the control application to ensure that pest populations are not being maintained at artificially high levels compared with historic data. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society

Comparing Two Methods for Quantifying Soil-borne Entomophaga maimaiga Resting Spores

To improve usability of methods for quantifying environmentally persistent entomophthoralean resting spores in soil, we modified and tested two methods using resting spores (azygospores) of the gypsy moth pathogen Entomophaga maimaiga. Both methods were effective for recovering resting spores at concentrations \u3e100 resting spores/g dry soil. While a modification of a method originally described by Weseloh and Andreadis (2002) recovered more resting spores than a modified method based on Percoll density gradients, the ability to estimate true densities from counts was similar for both methods. Regression equations are provided for predicting true resting spore densities from counts, with R 2 values for both methods P0.90

Technology and Technical Change in the MIT EPPA Model

Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).Potential technology change has a strong influence on projections of greenhouse gas emissions and costs of control, and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a common device for studying these phenomena. Using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model as an example, two ways of representing technology in these models are discussed: the sector-level description of production possibilities founded on social accounting matrices and elasticity estimates, and sub-models of specific supply or end-use devices based on engineering-process data. A distinction is made between exogenous and endogenous technical change, and it is shown how, because of model structure and the origin of key parameters, such models naturally include shifts in production process that reflect some degree of endogenous technical change. As a result, the introduction of explicit endogenous relations should be approached with caution, to avoid double counting.The CGE model underlying this analysis was supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research [BER] (DE-FG02-94ER61937), the US Environmental Protection Agency (X-827703-01-0), the Electric Power Research Institute, and by a consortium of industry and foundation sponsor

Changes in Older and Younger Woods in West-Central Ohio

Author Institution: Dept. of Biological Sciences, Wright State University, OHThis study examines changes in two forest stands in the Quercus-Acer saccharum forest region of west central Ohio: an old-growth stand changing from Quercus-dominated to Acer saccharum-dominated and a stand established following agricultural abandonment about 1950. Both stands are in the Wright State University woods. Permanent plots were sampled in 1980 (younger stand only), 1982 (older stand only), 1993, and 2000. The older stand had more small, fewer intermediate, and more large stems than the younger stand. The plot in the new stand showed a bell-shaped distribution with most stems established shortly after land abandonment. Mortality decreased and growth increased with stem size for both stands. Acer saccharum in all sizes and large Quercus dominated the older stand. The younger stand was dominated by Robinia pseudo-acacia with Acer saccharum also important. In the older plots small stems generally were clustered, intermediate-sized stems randomly distributed, and the largest stems regularly distributed. In the younger plot small stems were aggregated while larger ones were randomly distributed. Quercus regenerated well until the late 1800s, singly or in small groups, but few stems have become established since 1900. Quercus may need fires or grazing to regenerate successfully. Both stands are changing to increased dominance by Acer saccharum and other shade-tolerant species as they lose species (Robinia pseudo-acacia in the younger stand, Quercus in the older stand) more successful under past than present conditions

Accuracy and Reliability of Examiners’ Observations of Pre-Practice Warm-Up and FIFA 11+ Injury Prevention Program Exercises

Background: The Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) 11+ is an injury prevention program that decreases the incidence of lower extremity injuries. The purpose of the current study was to understand what specific exercises prevented injury from occurring. We thus developed and tested a form to identify these exercises. We hypothesize that trained examiners could accurately and reliably use this form to identify and record individual exercises performed during preparticipation warm-up. Methods: A repeated-measures study design was used in this investigation. After observing five prepractice warm-up videos obtained from multiple high schools, 11 examiners observed and recorded performed exercises at two different times. The videos included four soccer teams and one American football team. Accuracy, interexaminer reliability, and intraexaminer reliability were assessed. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and percent agreement with a FIFA 11+ expert were measured for each exercise component. Results: The intraclass correlation coefficients between examiners and individually ranged from 0.22 to 1.00 and 0.58 to 1.00, respectively. Reliability was lowest for exercises with similar movements. The percent agreement across all examiners for individual exercises ranged from 20% to 100%. Additionally, the percent agreement between each examiner and the “gold standard” examiner was high (range, 69.6% to 90.4%). For exercises with similar movements, accuracy and reliability were considerably improved (97%) when combined into one category. Conclusion: We determined that trained examiners with different backgrounds and experience can make accurate and reliable observations of most exercises observed in warm-up programs. Using the proposed form, researchers can accurately record exercises and perform quality and fidelity assessments of warm-up exercise routines

Characterization of MSB Synapses in Dissociated Hippocampal Culture with Simultaneous Pre- and Postsynaptic Live Microscopy

Multisynaptic boutons (MSBs) are presynaptic boutons in contact with multiple postsynaptic partners. Although MSB synapses have been studied with static imaging techniques such as electron microscopy (EM), the dynamics of individual MSB synapses have not been directly evaluated. It is known that the number of MSB synapses increases with synaptogenesis and plasticity but the formation, behavior, and fate of individual MSB synapses remains largely unknown. To address this, we developed a means of live imaging MSB synapses to observe them directly over time. With time lapse confocal microscopy of GFP-filled dendrites in contact with VAMP2-DsRed-labeled boutons, we recorded both MSBs and their contacting spines hourly over 15 or more hours. Our live microscopy showed that, compared to spines contacting single synaptic boutons (SSBs), MSB-contacting spines exhibit elevated dynamic behavior. These results are consistent with the idea that MSBs serve as intermediates in synaptic development and plasticity

Horizontal Lloyd mirror patterns from straight and curved nonlinear internal waves

Author Posting. © Acoustical Society of America, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of Acoustical Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 131 (2012): 1689-1700, doi:10.1121/1.3666004.Experimental observations and theoretical studies show that nonlinear internal waves occur widely in shallow water and cause acoustic propagation effects including ducting and mode coupling. Horizontal ducting results when acoustic modes travel between internal wave fronts that form waveguide boundaries. For small grazing angles between a mode trajectory and a front, an interference pattern may arise that is a horizontal Lloyd mirror pattern. An analytic description for this feature is provided along with comparisons between results from the formulated model predicting a horizontal Lloyd mirror pattern and an adiabatic mode parabolic equation. Different waveguide models are considered, including boxcar and jump sound speed profiles where change in sound speed is assumed 12 m/s. Modifications to the model are made to include multiple and moving fronts. The focus of this analysis is on different front locations relative to the source as well as on the number of fronts and their curvatures and speeds. Curvature influences mode incidence angles and thereby changes the interference patterns. For sources oriented so that the front appears concave, the areas with interference patterns shrink as curvature increases, while convexly oriented fronts cause patterns to expand.The authors thank the Office of Naval Research for funding this work. Additionally, the first author is supported through an ONR Ocean Acoustics Traineeship