Analysis of Climate Policy Targets under Uncertainty

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).Although policymaking in response to the climate change is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions targets developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Results are shown for atmospheric concentrations, radiative forcing, sea ice cover and temperature change, along with estimates of the odds of achieving particular target levels, and for the global costs of the associated mitigation policy. Comparison with other studies of climate targets are presented as evidence of the value, in understanding the climate challenge, of more complete analysis of uncertainties in human emissions and climate system response.This study received support from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors

Objectively measured physical activity and fat mass in a large cohort of children

Background Previous studies have been unable to characterise the association between physical activity and obesity, possibly because most relied on inaccurate measures of physical activity and obesity. Methods and Findings We carried out a cross sectional analysis on 5,500 12-year-old children enrolled in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Total physical activity and minutes of moderate and vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were measured using the Actigraph accelerometer. Fat mass and obesity (defined as the top decile of fat mass) were measured using the Lunar Prodigy dual x-ray emission absorptiometry scanner. We found strong negative associations between MVPA and fat mass that were unaltered after adjustment for total physical activity. We found a strong negative dose-response association between MVPA and obesity. The odds ratio for obesity in adjusted models between top and the bottom quintiles of minutes of MVPA was 0.03 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.01-0.13, p-value for trend < 0.0001) in boys and 0.36 (95% CI 0.17-0.74, p-value for trend = 0.006) in girls. Conclusions We demonstrated a strong graded inverse association between physical activity and obesity that was stronger in boys. Our data suggest that higher intensity physical activity may be more important than total activity

The Grizzly, November 3, 1998

President\u27s Proposal Summons Bears to the Roundtable • Pay...Now or Later • Myrin Security a Necessity • Close of Olin\u27s Open Door Policy • Opinion: Random Rudeness and Senseless Acts of Destruction; Why This Election Matters; College Students: Get Out and Vote! • Group Helps Students Cope with Loss • Kicking the Habit, One Habit at a Time • New Course Tackles The Big Questions • A Night of Jazz • Intercollegiate Choir • Graffiti Tribe Returns • Men\u27s Soccer Dominates Swarthmore • Season High for UC Volleyball • Field Hockey Victorious Over Colgate • UC Swimmers Test the Water • Women\u27s Soccer Season Ends Its Third Year • Football Loses to Muhlenberg in Overtimehttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1427/thumbnail.jp

Use of Accelerometers in a Large Field-Based Study of Children: Protocols, Design Issues, and Effects on Precision

Background: Objective methods can improve accuracy of physical activity measurement in field studies but uncertainties remain about their use. Methods: Children age 11 years from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), were asked to wear a uni-axial accelerometer (MTI Actigraph) for 7 days. Results: Of 7159 children who attended for assessment, 5595 (78%) provided valid measures. The reliability coefficient for 3 days of recording was .7 and the power to detect a difference of 0.07 SDs (P ≤ .05) was \u3e 90%. Measures tended to be higher on the first day of recording (17 counts/min; 95% CI, 10-24) and if children wore the monitor for fewer days, but these differences were small. The children who provided valid measures of activity were different from those who did not, but the differences were modest. Conclusion: Objective measures of physical activity can be incorporated into large longitudinal studies of children

Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (without Policy) and Climate Parameters

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).The MIT Integrated Global System Model is used to make probabilistic projections of climate change from 1861 to 2100. Since the model's first projections were published in 2003 substantial improvements have been made to the model and improved estimates of the probability distributions of uncertain input parameters have become available. The new projections are considerably warmer than the 2003 projections, e.g., the median surface warming in 2091 to 2100 is 5.1°C compared to 2.4°C in the earlier study. Many changes contribute to the stronger warming; among the more important ones are taking into account the cooling in the second half of the 20th century due to volcanic eruptions for input parameter estimation and a more sophisticated method for projecting GDP growth which eliminated many low emission scenarios. However, if recently published data, suggesting stronger 20th century ocean warming, are used to determine the input climate parameters, the median projected warning at the end of the 21st century is only 4.1°C. Nevertheless all our simulations have a very small probability of warming less than 2.4°C, the lower bound of the IPCC AR4 projected likely range for the A1FI scenario, which has forcing very similar to our median projection. The probability distribution for the surface warming produced by our analysis is more symmetric than the distribution assumed by the IPCC due to a different feedback between the climate and the carbon cycle, resulting from a different treatment of the carbon-nitrogen interaction in the terrestrial ecosystem.his work was supported in part by the Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy Grant No. DE-FG02-93ER61677, NSF, and by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

Measuring the effect of enhanced cleaning in a UK hospital : a prospective cross-over study

Increasing hospital-acquired infections have generated much attention over the last decade. There is evidence that hygienic cleaning has a role in the control of hospital-acquired infections. This study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of one additional cleaner by using microbiological standards based on aerobic colony counts and the presence of Staphylococcus aureus including meticillin-resistant S. aureus. We introduced an additional cleaner into two matched wards from Monday to Friday, with each ward receiving enhanced cleaning for six months in a cross-over design. Ten hand-touch sites on both wards were screened weekly using standardised methods and patients were monitored for meticillin-resistant S. aureus infection throughout the year-long study. Patient and environmental meticillin-resistant S. aureus isolates were characterised using molecular methods in order to investigate temporal and clonal relationships. Enhanced cleaning was associated with a 32.5% reduction in levels of microbial contamination at handtouch sites when wards received enhanced cleaning (P < 0.0001: 95% CI 20.2%, 42.9%). Near-patient sites (lockers, overbed tables and beds) were more frequently contaminated with meticillin-resistant S. aureus/S. aureus than sites further from the patient (P = 0.065). Genotyping identified indistinguishable strains from both handtouch sites and patients. There was a 26.6% reduction in new meticillin-resistant S. aureus infections on the wards receiving extra cleaning, despite higher meticillin-resistant S. aureus patient-days and bed occupancy rates during enhanced cleaning periods (P = 0.032: 95% CI 7.7%, 92.3%). Adjusting for meticillin-resistant S. aureus patient-days and based upon nine new meticillin-resistant S. aureus infections seen during routine cleaning, we expected 13 new infections during enhanced cleaning periods rather than the four that actually occurred. Clusters of new meticillin-resistant S. aureus infections were identified 2 to 4 weeks after the cleaner left both wards. Enhanced cleaning saved the hospital £30,000 to £70,000.Introducing one extra cleaner produced a measurable effect on the clinical environment, with apparent benefit to patients regarding meticillin-resistant S. aureus infection. Molecular epidemiological methods supported the possibility that patients acquired meticillin-resistant S. aureus from environmental sources. These findings suggest that additional research is warranted to further clarify the environmental, clinical and economic impact of enhanced hygienic cleaning as a component in the control of hospital-acquired infection

MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) Version 2: Model Description and Baseline Evaluation

Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) is designed for analyzing the global environmental changes that may result from anthropogenic causes, quantifying the uncertainties associated with the projected changes, and assessing the costs and environmental effectiveness of proposed policies to mitigate climate risk. This report documents Version 2 of the IGSM, which like the previous version, includes an economic model for analysis of greenhouse gas and aerosol precursor emissions and mitigation proposals, a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface model with interactive chemistry, and models of natural ecosystems. In this global framework the outputs of the combined anthropogenic and natural emissions models provide the driving forces for the coupled atmospheric chemistry and climate models. Climate model outputs then drive a terrestrial model predicting water and energy budgets, CO2, CH4, and N2O fluxes, and soil composition, which feed back to the coupled climate/chemistry model. The first version of the integrated framework (which we will term IGSM1) is described in Prinn et al. (1999) and in publications and Joint Program Reports and Technical Notes provided on the Program’s website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/). Subsequently, upgrades of component model capabilities have been achieved, allowing more comprehensive and realistic studies of global change. Highlights of these improvements include: a substantially improved economics model, needed to provide emissions projections and to assess an increasingly complex policy environment; a new global terrestrial model comprised of state-of-the-art biogeophysical, ecological and natural biogeochemical flux components, which provides an improved capacity to study consequences of hydrologic and ecologic change; the addition of a three-dimensional ocean representation, replacing the previous two-dimensional model, which allows examination of the global thermohaline circulation and its associated climate change impacts; the addition of an explicit oceanic carbon cycle including the impact of the biological pump; the addition of a new urban air pollution model enabling better treatments of human health and climate impacts; and the addition of greater flexibility for study of terrestrial ecosystem and urban pollution effects. This report documents the essential features of the new IGSM structure.This research was supported by the U.S Department of Energy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. National Science Foundation, U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration; and the Industry and Foundation Sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change: Alstom Power (France), American Electric Power (USA), BP p.l.c. (UK/USA), Chevron Corporation (USA), CONCAWE (Belgium), DaimlerChrysler AG (Germany), Duke Energy (USA), J-Power (Japan), Electric Power Research Institute (USA), Electricité de France, ExxonMobil Corporation (USA), Ford Motor Company (USA), General Motors (USA), Murphy Oil Corporation (USA), Oglethorpe Power Corporation (USA), RWE Power (Germany), Shell Petroleum (Netherlands/UK), Southern Company (USA), Statoil ASA (Norway), Tennessee Valley Authority (USA), Tokyo Electric Power Company (Japan), Total (France), G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation (USA)

Prenatal exome sequencing in anomalous fetuses: new opportunities and challenges

We investigated the diagnostic and clinical performance of exome sequencing (ES) in fetuses with sonographic abnormalities with normal karyotype, microarray and, in some cases, normal gene specific sequencing

Genes as Tags: The Tax Implications of Widely Available Genetic Information

This paper examines how progress in genetics\u27 specifically, the proliferation of knowledge about the human genome\u27 may influence the feasibility and desirability of a tax that is based on individual human endowments or ability. The paper explores various forms that such a genetic endowment tax-and-transfer regime might take and identifies some of the benefits and costs of such a regime. The authors take no position on whether a genetic endowment tax would be desirable or not. However, one contribution of the paper is to observe that current law in the U.S., which restricts the use of genetic information by insurers and employers, is equivalent to a form of genetic endowment tax. The paper also notes that, in the absence of a government-mandated transfer policy with respect to genetic endowments, private insurance markets may arise to fill the gap, allowing individuals to purchase insurance against the possibility of a bad genetic draw