A novel method to improve temperature simulations of general circulation models based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition and its application to multi-model ensembles

A novel method based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method was developed to improve model performance. This method was evaluated by applying it to global surface air temperatures, which were simulated by eight general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The temperature simulations of the eight models were separated into their different components by EEMD. The model's performance improved after the first high-frequency component was removed from the original simulations by EEMD for each model, on both the global and continental scale. Moreover, EEMD was more effective in improving the model's performance compared to the wavelet transform method. The multi-model ensembles (MMEs) were calculated based on the EEMD-improved model simulations using the Average Ensemble Mean, Multiple Linear Regression, Singular Value Decomposition and Bayesian Model Averaging methods. The results showed that the MME forecasts performed better when the calculations were based on the EEMD-improved simulations as opposed to the original simulations on both the global and continental scale. Therefore, the results of the MME were further improved by using the EEMD-improved model simulations. This new method provides a simple way to improve model performance and can be easily applied to further improve MME simulations

Retinoic Acid and Rapamycin Differentially Affect and Synergistically Promote the Ex Vivo Expansion of Natural Human T Regulatory Cells

Natural T regulatory cells (Tregs) are challenging to expand ex vivo, and this has severely hindered in vivo evaluation of their therapeutic potential. All trans retinoic acid (ATRA) plays an important role in mediating immune homeostasis in vivo, and we investigated whether ATRA could be used to promote the ex vivo expansion of Tregs purified from adult human peripheral blood. We found that ATRA helped maintain FOXP3 expression during the expansion process, but this effect was transient and serum-dependent. Furthermore, natural Tregs treated with rapamycin, but not with ATRA, suppressed cytokine production in co-cultured effector T cells. This suppressive activity correlated with the ability of expanded Tregs to induce FOXP3 expression in non-Treg cell populations. Examination of CD45RA+ and CD45RA− Treg subsets revealed that ATRA failed to maintain suppressive activity in either population, but interestingly, Tregs expanded in the presence of both rapamycin and ATRA displayed more suppressive activity and had a more favorable epigenetic status of the FOXP3 gene than Tregs expanded in the presence of rapamycin only. We conclude that while the use of ATRA as a single agent to expand Tregs for human therapy is not warranted, its use in combination with rapamycin may have benefit

Evaluation and Treatment of Iron Deficiency Anemia: A Gastroenterological Perspective

A substantial volume of the consultations requested of gastroenterologists are directed towards the evaluation of anemia. Since iron deficiency anemia often arises from bleeding gastrointestinal lesions, many of which are malignant, establishment of a firm diagnosis usually obligates an endoscopic evaluation. Although the laboratory tests used to make the diagnosis have not changed in many decades, their interpretation has, and this is possibly due to the availability of extensive testing in key populations. We provide data supporting the use of the serum ferritin as the sole useful measure of iron stores, setting the lower limit at 100 μg/l for some populations in order to increase the sensitivity of the test. Trends of the commonly obtained red cell indices, mean corpuscular volume, and the red cell distribution width can provide valuable diagnostic information. Once the diagnosis is established, upper and lower gastrointestinal endoscopy is usually indicated. Nevertheless, in many cases a gastrointestinal source is not found after routine evaluation. Additional studies, including repeat upper and lower endoscopy and often investigation of the small intestine may thus be required. Although oral iron is inexpensive and usually effective, there are many gastrointestinal conditions that warrant treatment of iron deficiency with intravenous iron

Photon/jet separation with DC1 data

Results on the photon identification and QCD-jet rejection capabilities of the {\sc Atlas} detector are presented. The simulation, reconstruction and analysis are done in the framework of Data Challenge 1. This study is based on fully simulated events at the initial low ($2\times 10^{33} {\rm cm^{-2}\ s^{-1}}$) and design high ($10^{34} {\rm cm^{-2}\ s^{-1}}$) luminosity, on which pile-up is superimposed. A jet rejection factor of about 5000-6000 for $p_T>25$ GeV can be obtained for a photon identification efficiency $\sim 80\%$. The application of this rejection to the fake background in the $H\rightarrow\gamma\gamma$ analysis is discussed

On judging the credibility of climate predictions

Incorporating a prediction into future planning and decision making is advisable only if we have judged the prediction's credibility. This is notoriously difficult and controversial in the case of predictions of future climate. By reviewing epistemic arguments about climate model performance, we discuss how to make and justify judgments about the credibility of climate predictions. We propose a new bounding argument that justifies basing such judgments on the past performance of possibly dissimilar prediction problems. This encourages a more explicit use of data in making quantitative judgments about the credibility of future climate predictions, and in training users of climate predictions to become better judges of credibility. We illustrate the approach using decadal predictions of annual mean, global mean surface air temperature