Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change

As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly apparent. An alternative is thus emerging which may be called a ‘storyline’ approach. We define a storyline as a physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. No a priori probability of the storyline is assessed; emphasis is placed instead on understanding the driving factors involved, and the plausibility of those factors. We introduce a typology of four reasons for using storylines to represent uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change: (i) improving risk awareness by framing risk in an event-oriented rather than a probabilistic manner, which corresponds more directly to how people perceive and respond to risk; (ii) strengthening decision-making by allowing one to work backward from a particular vulnerability or decision point, combining climate change information with other relevant factors to address compound risk and develop appropriate stress tests; (iii) providing a physical basis for partitioning uncertainty, thereby allowing the use of more credible regional models in a conditioned manner and (iv) exploring the boundaries of plausibility, thereby guarding against false precision and surprise. Storylines also offer a powerful way of linking physical with human aspects of climate change

Implementation of empirical dispersion corrections to density functional theory for periodic systems

A recently developed empirical dispersion correction (Grimme et al., J. Chem. Phys. 2010, 132, 154104) to standard density functional theory (DFT-D3) is implemented in the plane-wave program package VASP. The DFT-D3 implementation is compared with an implementation of the earlier DFT-D2 version (Grimme, J. Comput. Chem. 2004, 25, 1463; Grimme, J. Comput. Chem. 2006, 27, 1787). Summation of empirical pair potential terms is performed over all atom pairs in the reference cell and over atoms in shells of neighboring cells until convergence of the dispersion energy is obtained. For DFT-D3, the definition of coordination numbers has to be modified with respect to the molecular version to ensure convergence. The effect of three-center terms as implemented in the original molecular DFT-D3 version is investigated. The empirical parameters are taken from the original DFT-D3 version where they had been optimized for a reference set of small molecules. As the coordination numbers of atoms in bulk and surfaces are much larger than in the reference compounds, this effect has to be discussed. The results of test calculations for bulk properties of metals, metal oxides, benzene, and graphite indicate that the original parameters are also suitable for solid-state systems. In particular, the interlayer distance in bulk graphite and lattice constants of molecular crystals is considerably improved over standard functionals. With the molecular standard parameters (Grimme et al., J. Chem. Phys. 2010, 132, 154104; Grimme, J. Comput. Chem. 2006, 27, 1787) a slight overbinding is observed for ionic oxides where dispersion should not contribute to the bond. For simple adsorbate systems, such as Xe atoms and benzene on Ag(111), the DFT-D implementations reproduce experimental results with a similar accuracy as more sophisticated approaches based on perturbation theory (Rohlfing and Bredow, Phys. Rev. Lett. 2008, 101, 266106)

On the Carbene-Like Reactions of Imidazolium Acetate Ionic Liquids: Can Theory and Experiments Agree?

The N-heterocyclic carbene organocatalytic reactivity of the 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium acetate ionic liquid was investigated on the model reaction between this solvent and anisaldehyde. The formation of carbenes by a proton transfer from the cation to the anion was compared to a direct reaction mechanism, in which the proton transfer and the C-C bond formation between catalyst and substrate occurs in a single elementary step. Interestingly, the two reaction mechanisms show a much smaller difference in activation energies than those observed for analogous catalytic systems with neutral bases, showing that the mechanism might switch from one to the other at different temperatures or with different substrates. In this particular case, however, the direct reaction mechanism, avoiding free carbenes in the solution, is apparently more feasible. Based on the detailed analysis of this reaction path, the earlier contradictions between theory and experiments can be resolved, resulting in a consistent mechanistic picture for the related processes. Additionally, we show on the example of a platinum surface that introducing metal probes into the liquid may induce carbene-like reactions, as the formation of a strong coordinative bond between the carbene and a platinum atom at the surface is highly exothermic, shifting the acid-base equilibrium considerably

Adsorption height determination of nonequivalent C and O species of PTCDA on Ag(110) using x-ray standing waves

The normal incidence x-ray standing wave (NIXSW) technique is used to determine the adsorption geometry of submonolayer 3,4,9,10-perylene tetracarboxylic dianhydride (PTCDA) adsorbed on the Ag(110) surface. An accurate analysis of both C1s and O1s photoemission (PE) spectra allows the respective adsorption heights of carbon and oxygen atoms in different chemical environments within PTCDA to be distinguished. Due to the intricacy of the PE fitting models, a systematic error analysis of NIXSW structural parameters was developed and employed. Based on the adsorption geometry of PTCDA on Ag(110) a bonding mechanism is discussed