Wave-like spread of Ebola Zaire

In the past decade the Zaire strain of Ebola virus (ZEBOV) has emerged repeatedly into human populations in central Africa and caused massive die-offs of gorillas and chimpanzees. We tested the view that emergence events are independent and caused by ZEBOV variants that have been long resident at each locality. Phylogenetic analyses place the earliest known outbreak at Yambuku, Democratic Republic of Congo, very near to the root of the ZEBOV tree, suggesting that viruses causing all other known outbreaks evolved from a Yambuku-like virus after 1976. The tendency for earlier outbreaks to be directly ancestral to later outbreaks suggests that outbreaks are epidemiologically linked and may have occurred at the front of an advancing wave. While the ladder-like phylogenetic structure could also bear the signature of positive selection, our statistical power is too weak to reach a conclusion in this regard. Distances among outbreaks indicate a spread rate of about 50 km per year that remains consistent across spatial scales. Viral evolution is clocklike, and sequences show a high level of small-scale spatial structure. Genetic similarity decays with distance at roughly the same rate at all spatial scales. Our analyses suggest that ZEBOV has recently spread across the region rather than being long persistent at each outbreak locality. Controlling the impact of Ebola on wild apes and human populations may be more feasible than previously recognized

Processes underlying rabies virus incursions across US–Canada Border as revealed by whole-genome phylogeography

Disease control programs aim to constrain and reduce the spread of infection. Human disease interventions such as wildlife vaccination play a major role in determining the limits of a pathogen’s spatial distribution. Over the past few decades, a raccoon-specific variant of rabies virus (RRV) has invaded large areas of eastern North America. Although expansion into Canada has been largely prevented through vaccination along the US border, several outbreaks have occurred in Canada. Applying phylogeographic approaches to 289 RRV whole-genome sequences derived from isolates collected in Canada and adjacent US states, we examined the processes underlying these outbreaks. RRV incursions were attributable predominantly to systematic virus leakage of local strains across areas along the border where vaccination has been conducted but also to single stochastic events such as long-distance translocations. These results demonstrate the utility of phylogeographic analysis of pathogen genomes for understanding transboundary outbreaks

Application of high-throughput sequencing to whole rabies viral genome characterisation and its use for phylogenetic re-evaluation of a raccoon strain incursion into the province of Ontario

Raccoon rabies remains a serious public health problem throughout much of the eastern seaboard of North America due to the urban nature of the reservoir host and the many challenges inherent in multi-jurisdictional efforts to administer co-ordinated and comprehensive wildlife rabies control programmes. Better understanding of the mechanisms of spread of rabies virus can play a significant role in guiding such control efforts. To facilitate a detailed molecular epidemiological study of raccoon rabies virus movements across eastern North America, we developed a methodology to efficiently determine whole genome sequences of hundreds of viral samples. The workflow combines the generation of a limited number of overlapping amplicons covering the complete viral genome and use of high throughput sequencing technology. The value of this approach is demonstrated through a retrospective phylogenetic analysis of an outbreak of raccoon rabies which occurred in the province of Ontario between 1999 and 2005. As demonstrated by the number of single nucleotide polymorphisms detected, whole genome sequence data were far more effective than single gene sequences in discriminating between samples and this facilitated the generation of more robust and informative phylogenies that yielded insights into the spatio-temporal pattern of viral spread. With minor modification this approach could be applied to other rabies virus variants thereby facilitating greatly improved phylogenetic inference and thus better understanding of the spread of this serious zoonotic disease. Such information will inform the most appropriate strategies for rabies control in wildlife reservoirs

A general analysis of resource allocation by competing individuals

The analysis presented in this paper is constructed to determine the pattern of resource allocations among competing individuals of the same and/or different species in some defined habitat. Competing individuals have at their disposal various activities which can be run at different intensities and consume or produce resources in the habitat linearly. The linearity of resource utilization restricts the analysis to exploitative competition. Each resource is assigned values representing the reproductive gain and reproductive cost to the organism incurred while utilizing the resource. The organisms attempt to choose the amounts and kinds of resources which maximize the total reproductive gain. Resource utilization is restricted by the availability of resources in the habitat, the patterns of consumption associated with the activities of the individuals, and the demand for the individual resources (fixed through competition pressure) of the habitat. It is proved that under these restrictions a competitive equilibrium exists where resources are utilized so as to maximize individual reproductive gain and that this equilibrium generates the most efficient utilization of the resources in that habitat. The selection of a diet subject to nutritional requirements is given as an example of possible applications of this approach. The assumptions and restrictions associated with this technique of analysis are discussed.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/22007/1/0000420.pd

Spatial Control of Rabies on Heterogeneous Landscapes

Rabies control in terrestrial wildlife reservoirs relies heavily on an oral rabies vaccine (ORV). In addition to direct ORV delivery to protect wildlife in natural habitats, vaccine corridors have been constructed to control the spread; these corridors are often developed around natural barriers, such as rivers, to enhance the effectiveness of vaccine deployment. However, the question of how to optimally deploy ORV around a river (or other natural barrier) to best exploit the barrier for rabies control has not been addressed using mathematical models. Given an advancing epidemic wave, should the vaccine be distributed on both sides of barrier, behind the barrier, or in front of it? Here, we introduce a new mathematical model for the dynamics of raccoon rabies on a spatially heterogeneous landscape that is both simple and realistic. We demonstrate that the vaccine should always be deployed behind a barrier to minimize the recurrence of subsequent epidemics. Although the oral rabies vaccine is sufficient to induce herd immunity inside the vaccinated area, it simultaneously creates a demographic refuge. When that refuge is in front of a natural barrier, seasonal dispersal from the vaccine corridor into an endemic region sustains epidemic oscillations of raccoon rabies. When the vaccine barrier creates a refuge behind the river, the low permeability of the barrier to host movement limits dispersal of the host population from the protected populations into the rabies endemic area and limits subsequent rabies epidemics

Recent Common Ancestry of Ebola Zaire Virus Found in a Bat Reservoir

No abstract available

Advancing Epidemiological Science Through Computational Modeling: A Review with Novel Examples

Computational models have been successfully applied to a wide variety of research areas including infectious disease epidemiology. Especially for questions that are difficult to examine in other ways, computational models have been used to extend the range of epidemiological issues that can be addressed, advance theoretical understanding of disease processes and help identify specific intervention strategies. We explore each of these contributions to epidemiology research through discussion and examples. We also describe in detail models for raccoon rabies and methicillin-resis-tant Staphylococcus aureus, drawn from our own research, to further illustrate the role of computation in epidemiological modeling

Rabies Virus in Raccoons, Ohio, 2004

In 2004, the raccoon rabies virus variant emerged in Ohio beyond an area where oral rabies vaccine had been distributed to prevent westward spread of this variant. Our genetic investigation indicates that this outbreak may have begun several years before 2004 and may have originated within the vaccination zone

Predictive Spatial Dynamics and Strategic Planning for Raccoon Rabies Emergence in Ohio

Rabies is an important public health concern in North America because of recent epidemics of a rabies virus variant associated with raccoons. The costs associated with surveillance, diagnostic testing, and post-exposure treatment of humans exposed to rabies have fostered coordinated efforts to control rabies spread by distributing an oral rabies vaccine to wild raccoons. Authorities have tried to contain westward expansion of the epidemic front of raccoon-associated rabies via a vaccine corridor established in counties of eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Although sporadic cases of rabies have been identified in Ohio since oral rabies vaccine distribution in 1998, the first evidence of a significant breach in this vaccine corridor was not detected until 2004 in Lake County, Ohio. Herein, we forecast the spatial spread of rabies in Ohio from this breach using a stochastic spatial model that was first developed for exploratory data analysis in Connecticut and next used to successfully hind-cast wave-front dynamics of rabies spread across New York. The projections, based on expansion from the Lake County breach, are strongly affected by the spread of rabies by rare, but unpredictable long-distance translocation of rabid raccoons; rabies may traverse central Ohio at a rate 2.5-fold greater than previously analyzed wildlife epidemics. Using prior estimates of the impact of local heterogeneities on wave-front propagation and of the time lag between surveillance-based detection of an initial rabies case to full-blown epidemic, specific regions within the state are identified for vaccine delivery and expanded surveillance effort

Transmission Heterogeneity and Control Strategies for Infectious Disease Emergence

The control of emergence and spread of infectious diseases depends critically on the details of the genetic makeup of pathogens and hosts, their immunological, behavioral and ecological traits, and the pattern of temporal and spatial contacts among the age/stage-classes of susceptible and infectious host individuals.We show that failing to acknowledge the existence of heterogeneities in the transmission rate among age/stage-classes can make traditional eradication and control strategies ineffective, and in some cases, policies aimed at controlling pathogen emergence can even increase disease incidence in the host. When control strategies target for reduction in numbers those subsets of the population that effectively limit the production of new susceptible individuals, then control can produce a flush of new susceptibles entering the population. The availability of a new cohort of susceptibles may actually increase disease incidence. We illustrate these general points using Classical Swine Fever as a reference disease.Negative effects of culling are robust to alternative formulations of epidemiological processes and underline the importance of better assessing transmission structure in the design of wildlife disease control strategies