SIR+ models: accounting for interaction-dependent disease susceptibility in the planning of public health interventions

Avoiding physical contact is regarded as one of the safest and most advisable strategies to follow to reduce pathogen spread. The flip side of this approach is that a lack of social interactions may negatively affect other dimensions of health, like induction of immunosuppressive anxiety and depression or preventing interactions of importance with a diversity of microbes, which may be necessary to train our immune system or to maintain its normal levels of activity. These may in turn negatively affect a population’s susceptibility to infection and the incidence of severe disease. We suggest that future pandemic modelling may benefit from relying on ‘SIR+ models’: epidemiological models extended to account for the benefits of social interactions that affect immune resilience. We develop an SIR+ model and discuss which specific interventions may be more effective in balancing the trade-off between minimizing pathogen spread and maximizing other interaction-dependent health benefits. Our SIR+ model reflects the idea that health is not just the mere absence of disease, but rather a state of physical, mental and social well-being that can also be dependent on the same social connections that allow pathogen spread, and the modelling of public health interventions for future pandemics should account for this multidimensionality

Synchronous seasonality in the gut microbiota of wild mouse populations

The gut microbiome performs many important functions in mammalian hosts, with community composition shaping its functional role. However, the factors that drive individual microbiota variation in wild animals and to what extent these are predictable or idiosyncratic across populations remains poorly understood. Here, we use a multi-population dataset from a common rodent species (the wood mouse, Apodemus sylvaticus), to test whether a consistent “core” gut microbiota is identifiable in this species, and to what extent the predictors of microbiota variation are consistent across populations. Between 2014 and 2018 we used capture-mark-recapture and 16S rRNA profiling to intensively monitor two wild wood mouse populations and their gut microbiota, as well as characterising the microbiota from a laboratory-housed colony of the same species. Although the microbiota was broadly similar at high taxonomic levels, the two wild populations did not share a single bacterial amplicon sequence variant (ASV), despite being only 50km apart. Meanwhile, the laboratory-housed colony shared many ASVs with one of the wild populations from which it is thought to have been founded decades ago. Despite not sharing any ASVs, the two wild populations shared a phylogenetically more similar microbiota than either did with the colony, and the factors predicting compositional variation in each wild population were remarkably similar. We identified a strong and consistent pattern of seasonal microbiota restructuring that occurred at both sites, in all years, and within individual mice. While the microbiota was highly individualised, some seasonal convergence occurred in late winter/early spring. These findings reveal highly repeatable seasonal gut microbiota dynamics in multiple populations of this species, despite different taxa being involved. This provides a platform for future work to understand the drivers and functional implications of such predictable seasonal microbiome restructuring, including whether it might provide the host with adaptive seasonal phenotypic plasticity

Finding common connections

Ecological associations among gut bacteria are largely consistent across hosts in a population of wild baboons

Maternal transmission gives way to social transmission during gut microbiota assembly in wild mice

Abstract Background The mammalian gut microbiota influences a wide array of phenotypes which are relevant to fitness, yet knowledge about the transmission routes by which gut microbes colonise hosts in natural populations remains limited. Here, we use an intensively studied wild population of wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) to examine how vertical (maternal) and horizontal (social) transmission routes influence gut microbiota composition throughout life. Results We identify independent signals of maternal transmission (sharing of taxa between a mother and her offspring) and social transmission (sharing of taxa predicted by the social network), whose relative magnitudes shift as hosts age. In early life, gut microbiota composition is predicted by both maternal and social relationships, but by adulthood the impact of maternal transmission becomes undetectable, leaving only a signal of social transmission. By exploring which taxa drive the maternal transmission signal, we identify a candidate maternally-transmitted bacterial family in wood mice, the Muribaculaceae. Conclusion Overall, our findings point to an ontogenetically shifting transmission landscape in wild mice, with a mother’s influence on microbiota composition waning as offspring age, while the relative impact of social contacts grows

Social and environmental transmission spread different sets of gut microbes in wild mice

Gut microbes shape many aspects of organismal biology, yet how these key bacteria transmit among hosts in natural populations remains poorly understood. Recent work in mammals has emphasized either transmission through social contacts or indirect transmission through environmental contact, but the relative importance of different routes has not been directly assessed. Here we used a novel radio-frequency identification-based tracking system to collect long-term high-resolution data on social relationships, space use and microhabitat in a wild population of mice (Apodemus sylvaticus), while regularly characterizing their gut microbiota with 16S ribosomal RNA profiling. Through probabilistic modelling of the resulting data, we identify positive and statistically distinct signals of social and environmental transmission, captured by social networks and overlap in home ranges, respectively. Strikingly, microorganisms with distinct biological attributes drove these different transmission signals. While the social network effect on microbiota was driven by anaerobic bacteria, the effect of shared space was most influenced by aerotolerant spore-forming bacteria. These findings support the prediction that social contact is important for the transfer of microorganisms with low oxygen tolerance, while those that can tolerate oxygen or form spores may be able to transmit indirectly through the environment. Overall, these results suggest social and environmental transmission routes can spread biologically distinct members of the mammalian gut microbiota