Development and evaluation of a risk algorithm predicting alcohol dependence after early onset of regular alcohol use

The ESEMeD project is funded by the European Commission (Contracts QLG5-1999-01042; SANCO 2004123 and EAHC 20081308). The Portuguese Mental Health Study was carried out by the Department of Mental Health, Faculty of Medical Sciences, NOVA University of Lisbon, with collaboration of the Portuguese Catholic University, and was funded by Champalimaud Foundation, Gulbenkian Foundation, Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) and Ministry of Health.Aims: Likelihood of alcohol dependence (AD) is increased among people who transition to greater levels of alcohol involvement at a younger age. Indicated interventions delivered early may be effective in reducing risk, but could be costly. One way to increase cost-effectiveness would be to develop a prediction model that targeted interventions to the subset of youth with early alcohol use who are at highest risk of subsequent AD. Design: A prediction model was developed for DSM-IV AD onset by age 25 years using an ensemble machine-learning algorithm known as ‘Super Learner’. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) assessed variable importance. Setting and Participants: Respondents reporting early onset of regular alcohol use (i.e. by 17 years of age) who were aged 25 years or older at interview from 14 representative community surveys conducted in 13 countries as part of WHO's World Mental Health Surveys. Measurements: The primary outcome to be predicted was onset of life-time DSM-IV AD by age 25 as measured using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, a fully structured diagnostic interview. Findings: AD prevalence by age 25 was 5.1% among the 10 687 individuals who reported drinking alcohol regularly by age 17. The prediction model achieved an external area under the curve [0.78; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.74–0.81] higher than any individual candidate risk model (0.73–0.77) and an area under the precision-recall curve of 0.22. Overall calibration was good [integrated calibration index (ICI) = 1.05%]; however, miscalibration was observed at the extreme ends of the distribution of predicted probabilities. Interventions provided to the 20% of people with highest risk would identify 49% of AD cases and require treating four people without AD to reach one with AD. Important predictors of increased risk included younger onset of alcohol use, males, higher cohort alcohol use and more mental disorders. Conclusions: A risk algorithm can be created using data collected at the onset of regular alcohol use to target youth at highest risk of alcohol dependence by early adulthood. Important considerations remain for advancing the development and practical implementation of such models.publishersversionepub_ahead_of_prin

Development and evaluation of a risk algorithm predicting alcohol dependence after early onset of regular alcohol use

The ESEMeD project is funded by the European Commission (Contracts QLG5-1999-01042; SANCO 2004123 and EAHC 20081308). The Portuguese Mental Health Study was carried out by the Department of Mental Health, Faculty of Medical Sciences, NOVA University of Lisbon, with collaboration of the Portuguese Catholic University, and was funded by Champalimaud Foundation, Gulbenkian Foundation, Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) and Ministry of Health.Aims: Likelihood of alcohol dependence (AD) is increased among people who transition to greater levels of alcohol involvement at a younger age. Indicated interventions delivered early may be effective in reducing risk, but could be costly. One way to increase cost-effectiveness would be to develop a prediction model that targeted interventions to the subset of youth with early alcohol use who are at highest risk of subsequent AD. Design: A prediction model was developed for DSM-IV AD onset by age 25 years using an ensemble machine-learning algorithm known as ‘Super Learner’. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) assessed variable importance. Setting and Participants: Respondents reporting early onset of regular alcohol use (i.e. by 17 years of age) who were aged 25 years or older at interview from 14 representative community surveys conducted in 13 countries as part of WHO's World Mental Health Surveys. Measurements: The primary outcome to be predicted was onset of life-time DSM-IV AD by age 25 as measured using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, a fully structured diagnostic interview. Findings: AD prevalence by age 25 was 5.1% among the 10 687 individuals who reported drinking alcohol regularly by age 17. The prediction model achieved an external area under the curve [0.78; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.74–0.81] higher than any individual candidate risk model (0.73–0.77) and an area under the precision-recall curve of 0.22. Overall calibration was good [integrated calibration index (ICI) = 1.05%]; however, miscalibration was observed at the extreme ends of the distribution of predicted probabilities. Interventions provided to the 20% of people with highest risk would identify 49% of AD cases and require treating four people without AD to reach one with AD. Important predictors of increased risk included younger onset of alcohol use, males, higher cohort alcohol use and more mental disorders. Conclusions: A risk algorithm can be created using data collected at the onset of regular alcohol use to target youth at highest risk of alcohol dependence by early adulthood. Important considerations remain for advancing the development and practical implementation of such models.publishersversionepub_ahead_of_prin

Patterns of care and dropout rates from outpatient mental healthcare in low-, middle- and high-income countries from the World Health Organization’s World Mental Health Survey Initiative

Background:There is a substantial proportion of patients who drop out of treatment beforethey receive minimally adequate care. They tend to have worse health outcomes than thosewho complete treatment. Our main goal is to describe the frequency and determinants ofdropout from treatment for mental disorders in low-, middle-, and high-income countries.Methods: Respondents from 13 low- or middle-income countries (N= 60 224) and 15 in high-income countries (N= 77 303) were screened for mental and substance use disorders. Cross-tabulations were used to examine the distribution of treatment and dropout rates for thosewho screened positive. The timing of dropout was examined using Kaplan–Meier curves. Predictors of dropout were examined with survival analysis using a logistic link function. Results: Dropout rates are high, both in high-income (30%) and low/middle-income (45%)countries. Dropout mostly occurs during the first two visits. It is higher in general medicalrather than in specialist settings (nearly 60%v.20% in lower income settings). It is also higherfor mild and moderate than for severe presentations. The lack of financial protection for men-tal health services is associated with overall increased dropout from care.Conclusions:Extending financial protection and coverage for mental disorders may reducedropout. Efficiency can be improved by managing the milder clinical presentations at theentry point to the mental health system, providing adequate training, support and specialistsupervision for non-specialists, and streamlining referral to psychiatrists for more severe casesPeer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

The Epidemiology of Alcohol Use Disorders Cross-Nationally: Findings from the World Mental Health Surveys

Background: Prevalences of Alcohol Use Disorders (AUDs) and Mental Health Disorders (MHDs) in many individual countries have been reported but there are few cross-national studies. The WHO World Mental Health (WMH) Survey Initiative standardizes methodological factors facilitating comparison of the prevalences and associated factors of AUDs in a large number of countries to identify differences and commonalities. Methods: Lifetime and 12-month prevalence estimates of DSM-IV AUDs, MHDs, and associations were assessed in the 29 WMH surveys using the WHO CIDI 3.0. Results: Prevalence estimates of alcohol use and AUD across countries and WHO regions varied widely. Mean lifetime prevalence of alcohol use in all countries combined was 80%, ranging from 3.8% to 97.1%. Combined average population lifetime and 12-month prevalence of AUDs were 8.6% and 2.2% respectively and 10.7% and 4.4% among non-abstainers. Of individuals with a lifetime AUD, 43.9% had at least one lifetime MHD and 17.9% of respondents with a lifetime MHD had a lifetime AUD. For most comorbidity combinations, the MHD preceded the onset of the AUD. AUD prevalence was much higher for men than women. 15% of all lifetime AUD cases developed before age 18. Higher household income and being older at time of interview, married, and more educated, were associated with a lower risk for lifetime AUD and AUD persistence. Conclusions: Prevalence of alcohol use and AUD is high overall, with large variation worldwide. The WMH surveys corroborate the wide geographic consistency of a number of well-documented clinical and epidemiological findings and patterns

Perceived helpfulness of treatment for posttraumatic stress disorder: Findings from the World Mental Health Surveys

Background: Perceived helpfulness of treatment is an important healthcare quality indicator in the era of patient-centered care. We examine probability and predictors of two key components of this indicator for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Methods: Data come from World Mental Health surveys in 16 countries. Respondents who ever sought PTSD treatment (n = 779) were asked if treatment was ever helpful and, if so, the number of professionals they had to see to obtain helpful treatment. Patients whose treatment was never helpful were asked how many professionals they saw. Parallel survival models were estimated for obtaining helpful treatment in a specific encounter and persisting in help-seeking after earlier unhelpful encounters. Results: Fifty seven percent of patients eventually received helpful treatment, but survival analysis suggests that it would have been 85.7% if all patients had persisted in help-seeking with up to six professionals after earlier unhelpful treatment. Survival analysis suggests that only 23.6% of patients would persist to that extent. Odds of ever receiving helpful treatment were positively associated with receiving treatment from a mental health professional, short delays in initiating help-seeking after onset, absence of prior comorbid anxiety disorders and childhood adversities, and initiating treatment before 2000. Some of these variables predicted helpfulness of specific treatment encounters and others predicted persistence after earlier unhelpful encounters. Conclusions: The great majority of patients with PTSD would receive treatment they considered helpful if they persisted in help-seeking after initial unhelpful encounters, but most patients whose initial treatment is unhelpful give up before receiving helpful treatment

Patterns and correlates of patient-reported helpfulness of treatment for common mental and substance use disorders in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys

Patient-reported helpfulness of treatment is an important indicator of quality in patient-centered care. We examined its pathways and predictors among respondents to household surveys who reported ever receiving treatment for major depression, generalized anxiety disorder, social phobia, specific phobia, post-traumatic stress disorder, bipolar disorder, or alcohol use disorder. Data came from 30 community epidemiological surveys - 17 in high-income countries (HICs) and 13 in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) - carried out as part of the World Health Organization (WHO)'s World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys. Respondents were asked whether treatment of each disorder was ever helpful and, if so, the number of professionals seen before receiving helpful treatment. Across all surveys and diagnostic categories, 26.1% of patients (N=10,035) reported being helped by the very first professional they saw. Persisting to a second professional after a first unhelpful treatment brought the cumulative probability of receiving helpful treatment to 51.2%. If patients persisted with up through eight professionals, the cumulative probability rose to 90.6%. However, only an estimated 22.8% of patients would have persisted in seeing these many professionals after repeatedly receiving treatments they considered not helpful. Although the proportion of individuals with disorders who sought treatment was higher and they were more persistent in HICs than LMICs, proportional helpfulness among treated cases was no different between HICs and LMICs. A wide range of predictors of perceived treatment helpfulness were found, some of them consistent across diagnostic categories and others unique to specific disorders. These results provide novel information about patient evaluations of treatment across diagnoses and countries varying in income level, and suggest that a critical issue in improving the quality of care for mental disorders should be fostering persistence in professional help-seeking if earlier treatments are not helpful

Age of onset and cumulative risk of mental disorders:a cross-national analysis of population surveys from 29 countries

Background: Information on the frequency and timing of mental disorder onsets across the lifespan is of fundamental importance for public health planning. Broad, cross-national estimates of this information from coordinated general population surveys were last updated in 2007. We aimed to provide updated and improved estimates of age-of-onset distributions, lifetime prevalence, and morbid risk. Methods: In this cross-national analysis, we analysed data from respondents aged 18 years or older to the World Mental Health surveys, a coordinated series of cross-sectional, face-to-face community epidemiological surveys administered between 2001 and 2022. In the surveys, the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview, a fully structured psychiatric diagnostic interview, was used to assess age of onset, lifetime prevalence, and morbid risk of 13 DSM-IV mental disorders until age 75 years across surveys by sex. We did not assess ethnicity. The surveys were geographically clustered and weighted to adjust for selection probability, and standard errors of incidence rates and cumulative incidence curves were calculated using the jackknife repeated replications simulation method, taking weighting and geographical clustering of data into account. Findings: We included 156 331 respondents from 32 surveys in 29 countries, including 12 low-income and middle-income countries and 17 high-income countries, and including 85 308 (54·5%) female respondents and 71 023 (45·4%) male respondents. The lifetime prevalence of any mental disorder was 28·6% (95% CI 27·9–29·2) for male respondents and 29·8% (29·2–30·3) for female respondents. Morbid risk of any mental disorder by age 75 years was 46·4% (44·9–47·8) for male respondents and 53·1% (51·9–54·3) for female respondents. Conditional probabilities of first onset peaked at approximately age 15 years, with a median age of onset of 19 years (IQR 14–32) for male respondents and 20 years (12–36) for female respondents. The two most prevalent disorders were alcohol use disorder and major depressive disorder for male respondents and major depressive disorder and specific phobia for female respondents. Interpretation: By age 75 years, approximately half the population can expect to develop one or more of the 13 mental disorders considered in this Article. These disorders typically first emerge in childhood, adolescence, or young adulthood. Services should have the capacity to detect and treat common mental disorders promptly and to optimise care that suits people at these crucial parts of the life course. Funding: None.</p

Cognitive Performance Following Ingestion of Glucose–Fructose Sweeteners That Impart Different Postprandial Glycaemic Responses: A Randomised Control Trial

We aimed to investigate the isolated effect of glycaemia on cognitive test performance by using beverages sweetened with two different glucose&ndash;fructose disaccharides, sucrose and isomaltulose. In a randomised crossover design, 70 healthy adults received a low-glycaemic-index (GI) isomaltulose and sucralose beverage (GI 32) and a high-GI sucrose beverage (GI 65) on two occasions that were separated by two weeks. Following beverage ingestion, declarative memory and immediate word recall were examined at 30, 80 and 130 min. At 140 min, executive function was tested. To confirm that the glycaemic response of the test beverages matched published GI estimates, a subsample (n = 12) of the cognitive testing population (n = 70) underwent glycaemic response testing on different test days. A significantly lower value of mean (95% CI) blood glucose concentration incremental area under the curve (iAUC) was found for isomaltulose, in comparison to the blood glucose concentration iAUC value for sucrose, the difference corresponding to &minus;44 mmol/L∙min (&minus;70, &minus;18), p = 0.003. The mean (95% CI) difference in numbers of correct answers or words recalled between beverages at 30, 80 and 130 min were 0.1 (&minus;0.2, 0.5), &minus;0.3 (&minus;0.8, 0.2) and 0.0 (&minus;0.5, 0.5) for declarative memory, and &minus;0.5 (&minus;1.4, 0.3), 0.4 (&minus;0.4, 1.3) and &minus;0.4 (&minus;1.1, 0.4) for immediate free word recall. At 140 min, the mean difference in the trail-making test between beverages was &minus;0.3 sec (&minus;6.9, 6.3). None of these differences were statistically or clinically significant. In summary, cognitive performance was unaffected by different glycaemic responses to beverages during the postprandial period of 140 min