17 research outputs found
Demanda efetiva, conflito distributivo e regime de acumulação em um modelo estruturalista de ciclo: os casos britùnico e turco
This paper discusses the existence of different accumulation regimes in developed and developing economies. The central issue to be analyzed refers to the effect of an increase in the wage share in national income on output growth. When such increase positively affects output, the accumulation regime is wage-led. Otherwise, the regime is profit-led. The main hypothesis to be tested is that developing economies are characterized by wage-led regimes, whereas in developed countries accumulation is profit-led. In this paper, we apply the model developed by Barbosa-Filho and Taylor (2006) to test this hypothesis for the cases of UK and Turkey. The empirical evidence presented here, by the use of a VAR model, supports the hypothesis.effective demand; functional income distribution; accumulation regimes
Structural Change and Economic Growth under External Constraint in Brazil: An Empirical Analysis
By exploring the implications of a Multi-Sector Thirlwallâs Law, this paper reports empirical exercises that contribute to an understanding of the relationship between structural change, external constraint and growth in Brazil in the 1962-2006 period. Given the sectoral nature of these exercises and their connection to the literature about the II National Development Plan, the results were used to evaluate each sectorsâ contribution to the evolution of the weighted income elasticities of exports and imports during the period. These findings provide additional support to the existing debate about the external adjustment promoted between 1974 and 1984. The results suggest that Castroâs (1985) interpretation has empirical support, even if evaluated using a different metric than the one used by the author. But, the results also support Fishlowâs (1986) qualification that the improvement in the trade balance in 1983-1984 was due to a greater extent to the behavior of exports than to the behavior of imports.Structural Change, Economic Growth, External Constraint, II PND
INFLAĂĂO, DESEMPREGO E CHOQUES CAMBIAIS: ESTIMATIVAS VAR PARA A ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA
This paper estimates a VAR model representing the new-Keynesian Phillips curve with exchange rate shocks for the Brazilian economy. The unemployment rate from the PME survey is our proxy for the marginal cost, inflation is measured by the CPI, and expectations were obtained from the Central Bank survey with the financial market. The empirical findings may be summed up in the following: a) the exchange rate pass-through is around 0.04 p.p. to the next month inflation (above 0.4 p.p. in the annualized rate) after an exogenous variation of R 0,01 no preço do dĂłlar (mais de 0,4 p.p. na inflação anualizada), mas esse efeito Ă© insignificante; b) um choque mĂ©dio na taxa de desemprego demora ao redor de 18 meses para desaparecer; c) uma inovação de 0,06 p.p. na expectativa de inflação Ă© carregada para a inflação, que atinge um mĂĄximo de 0,05 p.p. no mĂȘs seguinte ao choque (0,6 p.p. na inflação anualizada); e d) choques na sĂ©rie de inflação nĂŁo afetam a taxa de desemprego, isto Ă©, mais inflação nĂŁo reduz o desemprego
Productive struture and economic growth under external constraint: an empirical analysis
Esta dissertação procura contribuir para literatura empĂrica sobre crescimento econĂŽmico restrito pelo balanço de pagamentos atravĂ©s da investigação de como a mudança estrutural, identificada como alteraçÔes na composição setorial das exportaçÔes e importaçÔes, afeta a intensidade da restrição externa. Para tanto, sĂŁo realizados dois exercĂcios empĂricos. O primeiro fornece evidĂȘncias para a validade da Lei de Thirlwall Multissetorial para um conjunto de 90 paĂses no perĂodo 1965-1999, baseando-se na anĂĄlise do erro de previsĂŁo e do desvio mĂ©dio absoluto, assim como na aplicação de um teste de regressĂŁo. No segundo, apresentam-se evidĂȘncias de que o crescimento econĂŽmico brasileiro no perĂodo 1962-2006 foi compatĂvel tanto com a Lei de Thirlwall quanto com a Lei de Thirlwall Multissetorial. As implicaçÔes da Lei de Thirlwall Multissetorial foram utilizadas, entĂŁo, para explorar a relação entre estrutura produtiva, mudança estrutural e restrição externa por meio da anĂĄlise da evolução das elasticidades-renda ponderadas das exportaçÔes e importaçÔes. Dadas a natureza setorial deste exercĂcio empĂrico e sua possĂvel conexĂŁo com a literatura historiogrĂĄfica sobre o II Plano Nacional de Desenvolvimento (1974-1979), os resultados do trabalho foram utilizados para avaliar a contribuição dos setores para a evolução das elasticidades-renda ponderadas das exportaçÔes e importaçÔes, subsidiando, assim, o debate existente acerca do ajustamento externo promovido entre 1974 e 1984. Os resultados sugerem que a interpretação de Castro (1985), mesmo quando avaliada sob uma mĂ©trica diferente daquela utilizada pelo autor, possui fundamento empĂrico. PorĂ©m, faz-se necessĂĄrio ressaltar a qualificação de Fishlow (1986) de que a melhoria verificada na balança comercial nos anos 1983-1984 decorre em maior medida do comportamento das exportaçÔes do que das importaçÔes.This dissertation aims to contribute to the empirical literature on balance-of-payments-constrained growth by investigating how structural change, identified with change in the sectoral composition of exports and/imports, affects the extent of the external constraint. This is done by two empirical exercises. The first one presents evidence in favor of the Multi-Sectoral Thirlwall Laws validity for a sample of 90 countries in the period 1965-1999, by analyzing the mean prediction error and the mean absolute deviation, as well as applying a regression test. In the second one, the evidence show that Brazilian economic growth in the period 1962-2006 was compatible with both Thirlwalls Law and Multi-Sectoral Thirlwalls Law. Multi-Sectoral Thirlwalls Law implications were, then, utilized to explore the relationship between productive structure, structural change and external constraint by analyzing the evolution of weighted income elasticities of exports and imports. Given the sectoral nature of this empirical exercise and its possible connection with the historical literature about the II National Development Plan (1974-1979), the results were used to evaluate the sectors contribution to the evolution of weighted income elasticities of exports and imports during the period. These findings provide additional support to the existing debate about the external adjustment promoted between 1974 and 1984. The results suggest that Castros (1985) interpretation has empirical support, even when evaluated using a different metric than the one used by the author. However, it is necessary to highlight Fishlows (1986) insight that the improvement verified in the trade balance in the years 1983-1984 came out to greater extent from exports behavior rather than from imports behavior
Empirical estimates for the Brazilian total imports equation using quarterly national accounts data (1996â2010)
This paper presents econometric estimates for the Brazilian aggregate imports over the period 1996â2010. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that uses the Brazilian quarterly national accounts with this goal in mind. Besides estimating a demand equation (canonical model), as it is usual in the literature, we also explore the co-movements among total imports, gross fixed capital formation and household consumption (alternative model). The results underscore the role played by domestic income, which is the main determinant of total imports. The limited domestic supply of capital goods makes the allocation of domestic income also relevant to the imports dynamics. It should be noted, however, that this specification needs a better theoretical grounding. Evidence of nonlinearities has been found by different estimation techniques. Unfortunately its precise characterization turns out to be difficult due to the diversity of the results obtained. The out-of-sample assessment (one-step-ahead forecast) shows a good performance of the long-run vectors of the alternative models in predicting aggregate imports, meanwhile the best performance is obtained by the error correction representations of the canonical model. We believe those differences emerge from the different speeds of adjustment toward the long-run solutions