World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations

Recent studies suggest that possible global increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns during the next century will affect world agriculture. Because of the ability of farmers to adapt , however, these changes are not likely to imperil world food production. Nevertheless, world production of all goods and services may decline, if climate change is severe enough or if cropland expansion is hindered. Impacts are not equally distributed around the world.climate change, world agriculture, Environmental Economics and Policy,

MODELING OPERATIONAL RISK IN DATA QUALITY (Practice-oriented paper)

Abstract: In this paper, we address how data quality (DQ) is likely linked to failed business processes that pose operational risks to the Enterprise system. Operational value at risk (OPVAR), which is used in the finance literature to mean how much we might expect to lose if an event in the tail of the loss probability distribution does not occur, can be used to conduct Enterprise software reliability and damage function analysis. This paper explores (a) how to combine distributional assumptions for event frequency and severity to derive software loss cost estimates using the familiar example of software processing errors and (b) how to utilize the estimates of this distribution to estimate OPVAR-based losses. The empirical results show (a) that it is possible to fit DQ problems, such as the daily mishandling event data, to a distribution and to use maximum likelihood analysis to derive a consistent set of critical event count thresholds and (b) that the resulting OPVAR-based losses can be used by DQ managers to ascertain the real costs of mitigating DQ problems

Who gains from genetic improvements in U.S. crops?

The distribution of gains of plant breeding and plant genetic resource exchange has beenthe source of heated North-South debates in meetings of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (UN FAO) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity. We report results of a study using a world agricultural trade model to estimate the sizeand distribution of economic gains from yield increases in major United States (U.S.) crops attributable to genetic improvements. The net global economic benefits of a onetime, permanent increase in U.S. yields are about $8.1 billion (discounted at 10$15.4 billion (discounted at 5%). The United States captures 50-60% of these net gains. Gains to consumers in developing and transitional economies range from 6.1 billion (10% discount rate) to $11.6 billion (5% discount rate).Includes bibliographical reference

Genetic improvements in major US crops: the size and distribution of benefits

The distribution of welfare gains of genetic improvements in major US crops is estimated using a world agricultural trade model. Multi-market welfare estimates were 75% larger than estimates based on the price-exogenous 'change in revenue' method frequently used by plant breeders. Annual benefits of these genetic improvements range from US$400-600 million depending on the supply shift specification. Of this, 44-60Developing and transitional economies capture 16-22increase in US yields are US$ 8.1 billion (discounted at 10%) and US$15.4 billion (discounted at 5developing and transitional economies range from US$ 6.1 billion ( 10% discount rate) to US$ 11.6 billion (5% discount rate). © 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved

World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations

Recent studies suggest that possible global increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns during the next century will affect world agriculture. Because of the ability of farmers to adapt , however, these changes are not likely to imperil world food production. Nevertheless, world production of all goods and services may decline, if climate change is severe enough or if cropland expansion is hindered. Impacts are not equally distributed around the world