The Amundsen Sea Polynya International Research Expedition (ASPIRE)

In search of an explanation for some of the greenest waters ever seen in coastal Antarctica and their possible link to some of the fastest melting glaciers and declining summer sea ice, the Amundsen Sea Polynya International Research Expedition (ASPIRE) challenged the capabilities of the US Antarctic Program and RVIB Nathaniel B. Palmer during Austral summer 2010–2011. We were well rewarded by both an extraordinary research platform and a truly remarkable oceanic setting. Here we provide further insights into the key questions that motivated our sampling approach during ASPIRE and present some preliminary findings, while highlighting the value of the Palmer for accomplishing complex, multifaceted oceanographic research in such a challenging environment

Freshwater distributions and water mass structure in the Amundsen Sea Polynya region, Antarctica

We present the first densely-sampled hydrographic survey of the Amundsen Sea Polynya (ASP) region, including a detailed characterization of its freshwater distributions. Multiple components contribute to the freshwater budget, including precipitation, sea ice melt, basal ice shelf melt, and iceberg melt, from local and non-local sources. We used stable oxygen isotope ratios in seawater (δ18O) to distinguish quantitatively the contributions from sea ice and meteoric-derived sources. Meteoric fractions were high throughout the winter mixed layer (WML), with maximum values of 2–3% (±0.5%). Because the ASP region is characterized by deep WMLs, column inventories of total meteoric water were also high, ranging from 10–13 m (±2 m) adjacent to the Dotson Ice Shelf (DIS) and in the deep trough to 7–9 m (±2 m) in shallower areas. These inventories are at least twice those reported for continental shelf waters near the western Antarctic Peninsula. Sea ice melt fractions were mostly negative, indicating net (annual) sea ice formation, consistent with this area being an active polynya. Independently determined fractions of subsurface glacial meltwater (as one component of the total meteoric inventory) had maximum values of 1–2% (±0.5%), with highest and shallowest maximum values at the DIS outflow (80–90 m) and in iceberg-stirred waters (150–200 m). In addition to these upwelling sites, contributions of subsurface glacial meltwater could be traced at depth along the ~ 27.6 isopycnal, from which it mixes into the WML through various processes. Our results suggest a quasi-continuous supply of melt-laden iron-enriched seawater to the euphotic zone of the ASP and help to explain why the ASP is Antarctica’s most biologically productive polynya per unit area

Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be Conservative

This article proposes a unifying theory, or the Golden Rule, or forecasting. The Golden Rule of Forecasting is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative knowledge about the present and the past. To be conservative, forecasters must seek out and use all knowledge relevant to the problem, including knowledge of methods validated for the situation. Twenty-eight guidelines are logically deduced from the Golden Rule. A review of evidence identified 105 papers with experimental comparisons; 102 support the guidelines. Ignoring a single guideline increased forecast error by more than two-fifths on average. Ignoring the Golden Rule is likely to harm accuracy most when the situation is uncertain and complex, and when bias is likely. Non-experts who use the Golden Rule can identify dubious forecasts quickly and inexpensively. To date, ignorance of research findings, bias, sophisticated statistical procedures, and the proliferation of big data, have led forecasters to violate the Golden Rule. As a result, despite major advances in evidence-based forecasting methods, forecasting practice in many fields has failed to improve over the past half-century

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

Impact of COVID-19 on cardiovascular testing in the United States versus the rest of the world

Objectives: This study sought to quantify and compare the decline in volumes of cardiovascular procedures between the United States and non-US institutions during the early phase of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the care of many non-COVID-19 illnesses. Reductions in diagnostic cardiovascular testing around the world have led to concerns over the implications of reduced testing for cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. Methods: Data were submitted to the INCAPS-COVID (International Atomic Energy Agency Non-Invasive Cardiology Protocols Study of COVID-19), a multinational registry comprising 909 institutions in 108 countries (including 155 facilities in 40 U.S. states), assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on volumes of diagnostic cardiovascular procedures. Data were obtained for April 2020 and compared with volumes of baseline procedures from March 2019. We compared laboratory characteristics, practices, and procedure volumes between U.S. and non-U.S. facilities and between U.S. geographic regions and identified factors associated with volume reduction in the United States. Results: Reductions in the volumes of procedures in the United States were similar to those in non-U.S. facilities (68% vs. 63%, respectively; p = 0.237), although U.S. facilities reported greater reductions in invasive coronary angiography (69% vs. 53%, respectively; p < 0.001). Significantly more U.S. facilities reported increased use of telehealth and patient screening measures than non-U.S. facilities, such as temperature checks, symptom screenings, and COVID-19 testing. Reductions in volumes of procedures differed between U.S. regions, with larger declines observed in the Northeast (76%) and Midwest (74%) than in the South (62%) and West (44%). Prevalence of COVID-19, staff redeployments, outpatient centers, and urban centers were associated with greater reductions in volume in U.S. facilities in a multivariable analysis. Conclusions: We observed marked reductions in U.S. cardiovascular testing in the early phase of the pandemic and significant variability between U.S. regions. The association between reductions of volumes and COVID-19 prevalence in the United States highlighted the need for proactive efforts to maintain access to cardiovascular testing in areas most affected by outbreaks of COVID-19 infection

Social Movements and International Relations: A Relational Framework

Social movements are increasingly recognized as significant features of contemporary world politics, yet to date their treatment in international relations theory has tended to obfuscate the considerable diversity of these social formations, and the variegated interactions they may establish with state actors and different structures of world order. Highlighting the difficulties conventional liberal and critical approaches have in transcending conceptions of movements as moral entities, the article draws from two under-exploited literatures in the study of social movements in international relations, the English School and Social Systems Theory, to specify a wider range of analytical interactions between different categories of social movements and of world political structures. Moreover, by casting social movement phenomena as communications, the article opens international relations to consideration of the increasingly diverse trajectories and second-order effects produced by social movements as they interact with states, intergovernmental institutions, and transnational actors

Elucidating the Construct Validity of the Anitsocial Process Screening Device (APSD) in a Sample of Young Adults

The current investigation sought to examine whether an adolescent-focused measure of psychopathic personality traits, the Antisocial Process Screening Device (APSD; Frick and Hare 2001), could be appropriately used with young adults. Using a sample of university students, we examined the construct validity of the APSD by evaluating the latent factor structure and examining convergent and discriminant validity of factor scores. Results of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) indicated that a three factor structure had optimal fit in the current sample. We also compared these model results to a sample of juvenile delinquents, and these analyses indicated that the factor structure was generally invariant across these two samples. Correlation and multiple regression analyses, which examined associations between the APSD and conceptually-relevant external criteria, supported the convergent and discriminant validity of the APSD total and factor scores across two major age categories and differing samples. Implications of these results and directions for future research are discussed