Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts.

PublishedJournal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tBACKGROUND: With more than a million spectators expected to travel among 12 different cities in Brazil during the football World Cup, June 12-July 13, 2014, the risk of the mosquito-transmitted disease dengue fever is a concern. We addressed the potential for a dengue epidemic during the tournament, using a probabilistic forecast of dengue risk for the 553 microregions of Brazil, with risk level warnings for the 12 cities where matches will be played. METHODS: We obtained real-time seasonal climate forecasts from several international sources (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts [ECMWF], Met Office, Meteo-France and Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos [CPTEC]) and the observed dengue epidemiological situation in Brazil at the forecast issue date as provided by the Ministry of Health. Using this information we devised a spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework that enabled dengue warnings to be made 3 months ahead. By assessing the past performance of the forecasting system using observed dengue incidence rates for June, 2000-2013, we identified optimum trigger alert thresholds for scenarios of medium-risk and high-risk of dengue. FINDINGS: Our forecasts for June, 2014, showed that dengue risk was likely to be low in the host cities Brasília, Cuiabá, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, and São Paulo. The risk was medium in Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, and Manaus. High-risk alerts were triggered for the northeastern cities of Recife (p(high)=19%), Fortaleza (p(high)=46%), and Natal (p(high)=48%). For these high-risk areas, particularly Natal, the forecasting system did well for previous years (in June, 2000-13). INTERPRETATION: This timely dengue early warning permits the Ministry of Health and local authorities to implement appropriate, city-specific mitigation and control actions ahead of the World Cup. FUNDING: European Commission's Seventh Framework Research Programme projects DENFREE, EUPORIAS, and SPECS; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro.DENFREE projectEUPORIAS projectSPECS projectEuropean Commission's Seventh Framework Research ProgrammeConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeir

A comparison of four fibrosis indexes in chronic HCV: Development of new fibrosis-cirrhosis index (FCI)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hepatitis C can lead to liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. We compared readily available non-invasive fibrosis indexes for the fibrosis progression discrimination to find a better combination of existing non-invasive markers.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We studied 157 HCV infected patients who underwent liver biopsy. In order to differentiate HCV fibrosis progression, readily available AAR, APRI, FI and FIB-4 serum indexes were tested in the patients. We derived a new fibrosis-cirrhosis index (FCI) comprised of ALP, bilirubin, serum albumin and platelet count. FCI = [(ALP × Bilirubin) / (Albumin × Platelet count)].</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Already established serum indexes AAR, APRI, FI and FIB-4 were able to stage liver fibrosis with correlation coefficient indexes 0.130, 0.444, 0.578 and 0.494, respectively. Our new fibrosis cirrhosis index FCI significantly correlated with the histological fibrosis stages F0-F1, F2-F3 and F4 (r = 0.818, p < 0.05) with AUROCs 0.932 and 0.996, respectively. The sensitivity and PPV of FCI at a cutoff value < 0.130 for predicting fibrosis stage F0-F1 was 81% and 82%, respectively with AUROC 0.932. Corresponding value of FCI at a cutoff value ≥1.25 for the prediction of cirrhosis was 86% and 100%.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The fibrosis-cirrhosis index (FCI) accurately predicted fibrosis stages in HCV infected patients and seems more efficient than frequently used serum indexes.</p

CXCR4 Mediated Chemotaxis Is Regulated by 5T4 Oncofetal Glycoprotein in Mouse Embryonic Cells

5T4 oncofetal molecules are highly expressed during development and upregulated in cancer while showing only low levels in some adult tissues. Upregulation of 5T4 expression is a marker of loss of pluripotency in the early differentiation of embryonic stem (ES) cells and forms an integrated component of an epithelial-mesenchymal transition, a process important during embryonic development and metastatic spread of epithelial tumors. Investigation of the transcriptional changes in early ES differentiation showed upregulation of CXCL12 and down-regulation of a cell surface protease, CD26, which cleaves this chemokine. CXCL12 binds to the widely expressed CXCR4 and regulates key aspects of development, stem cell motility and tumour metastasis to tissues with high levels of CXCL12. We show that the 5T4 glycoprotein is required for optimal functional cell surface expression of the chemokine receptor CXCR4 and CXCL12 mediated chemotaxis in differentiating murine embryonic stem cells and embryo fibroblasts (MEF). Cell surface expression of 5T4 and CXCR4 molecules is co-localized in differentiating ES cells and MEF. By contrast, differentiating ES and MEF derived from 5T4 knockout (KO) mice show only intracellular CXCR4 expression but infection with adenovirus encoding mouse 5T4 restores CXCL12 chemotaxis and surface co-localization with 5T4 molecules. A series of chimeric constructs with interchanged domains of 5T4 and the glycoprotein CD44 were used to map the 5T4 sequences relevant for CXCR4 membrane expression and function in 5T4KO MEF. These data identified the 5T4 transmembrane domain as sufficient and necessary to enable CXCR4 cell surface expression and chemotaxis. Furthermore, some monoclonal antibodies against m5T4 can inhibit CXCL12 chemotaxis of differentiating ES cells and MEF which is not mediated by simple antigenic modulation. Collectively, these data support a molecular interaction of 5T4 and CXCR4 occurring at the cell surface which directly facilitates the biological response to CXCL12. The regulation of CXCR4 surface expression by 5T4 molecules is a novel means to control responses to the chemokine CXCL12 for example during embryogenesis but can also be selected to advantage the spread of a 5T4 positive tumor from its primary site

Urban Biodiversity and Landscape Ecology: Patterns, Processes and Planning

Effective planning for biodiversity in cities and towns is increasingly important as urban areas and their human populations grow, both to achieve conservation goals and because ecological communities support services on which humans depend. Landscape ecology provides important frameworks for understanding and conserving urban biodiversity both within cities and considering whole cities in their regional context, and has played an important role in the development of a substantial and expanding body of knowledge about urban landscapes and communities. Characteristics of the whole city including size, overall amount of green space, age and regional context are important considerations for understanding and planning for biotic assemblages at the scale of entire cities, but have received relatively little research attention. Studies of biodiversity within cities are more abundant and show that longstanding principles regarding how patch size, configuration and composition influence biodiversity apply to urban areas as they do in other habitats. However, the fine spatial scales at which urban areas are fragmented and the altered temporal dynamics compared to non-urban areas indicate a need to apply hierarchical multi-scalar landscape ecology models to urban environments. Transferring results from landscape-scale urban biodiversity research into planning remains challenging, not least because of the requirements for urban green space to provide multiple functions. An increasing array of tools is available to meet this challenge and increasingly requires ecologists to work with planners to address biodiversity challenges. Biodiversity conservation and enhancement is just one strand in urban planning, but is increasingly important in a rapidly urbanising world

Systems biology discoveries using non-human primate pluripotent stem and germ cells: novel gene and genomic imprinting interactions as well as unique expression patterns

The study of pluripotent stem cells has generated much interest in both biology and medicine. Understanding the fundamentals of biological decisions, including what permits a cell to maintain pluripotency, that is, its ability to self-renew and thereby remain immortal, or to differentiate into multiple types of cells, is of profound importance. For clinical applications, pluripotent cells, including both embryonic stem cells and adult stem cells, have been proposed for cell replacement therapy for a number of human diseases and disorders, including Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, spinal cord injury and diabetes. One challenge in their usage for such therapies is understanding the mechanisms that allow the maintenance of pluripotency and controlling the specific differentiation into required functional target cells. Because of regulatory restrictions and biological feasibilities, there are many crucial investigations that are just impossible to perform using pluripotent stem cells (PSCs) from humans (for example, direct comparisons among panels of inbred embryonic stem cells from prime embryos obtained from pedigreed and fertile donors; genomic analysis of parent versus progeny PSCs and their identical differentiated tissues; intraspecific chimera analyses for pluripotency testing; and so on). However, PSCs from nonhuman primates are being investigated to bridge these knowledge gaps between discoveries in mice and vital information necessary for appropriate clinical evaluations. In this review, we consider the mRNAs and novel genes with unique expression and imprinting patterns that were discovered using systems biology approaches with primate pluripotent stem and germ cells

Apoptosis in Transgenic Mice Expressing the P301L Mutated Form of Human Tau

The rTg4510 mouse is a tauopathy model, characterized by massive neurodegeneration in Alzheimer’s disease (AD)-relevant cortical and limbic structures, deficits in spatial reference memory, and progression of neurofibrillary tangles (NFT). In this study, we examined the role of apoptosis in neuronal loss and associated tau pathology. The results showed that DNA fragmentation and caspase-3 activation are common in the hippocampus and frontal cortex of young rTg4510 mice. These changes were associated with cleavage of tau into smaller intermediate fragments, which persist with age. Interestingly, active caspase-3 was often co-localized with cleaved tau. In vitro, fibrillar Aβ1–42 resulted in nuclear fragmentation, caspase activation, and caspase-3-induced cleavage of tau. Notably, incubation with the antiapoptotic molecule tauroursodeoxycholic acid abrogated apoptosis-mediated cleavage of tau in rat cortical neurons. In conclusion, caspase-3-cleaved intermediate tau species occurred early in rTg54510 brains and preceded cell loss in Aβ-exposed cultured neurons. These results suggest a potential role of apoptosis in neurodegeneration