The merit-order effect: a detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany

The German feed-in support of electricity generation from renewable energy sources has led to high growth rates of the supported technologies. Critics state that the costs for consumers are too high. An important aspect to be considered in the discussion is the price effect created by renewable electricity generation. This paper seeks to analyse the impact of privileged renewable electricity generation on the electricity market in Germany. The central aspect to be analysed is the impact of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices. The results generated by an agent-based simulation platform indicate that the financial volume of the price reduction is considerable. In the short run, this gives rise to a distributional effect which creates savings for the demand side by reducing generator profits. In the case of the year 2006, the volume of the merit-order effect exceeds the volume of the net support payments for renewable electricity generation which have to be paid by consumers. --

Agent-based simulation of electricity markets: a literature review

Liberalisation, climate policy and promotion of renewable energy are challenges to players of the electricity sector in many countries. Policy makers have to consider issues like market power, bounded rationality of players and the appearance of fluctuating energy sources in order to provide adequate legislation. Furthermore the interactions between markets and environmental policy instruments become an issue of increasing importance. A promising approach for the scientific analysis of these developments is the field of agent-based simulation. The goal of this article is to provide an overview of the current work applying this methodology to the analysis of electricity markets. --

Datengetriebene Modelle stochastischer dynamischer Systeme - am Beispiel hydrodynamischer Turbulenz

This thesis deals with the development of data driven models for stochastic dynamical systems based on measured time sequences. Reconstruction of deterministic dynamical systems from time series is a well established technique, whereas only very few methods exist in the case of a nonlinear stochastic setting. The need for such algorithms arises in a variety of fields, such as physics, biology, economics, or meteorology. First we derive a method to construct Fokker-Planck- and Langevin-equations from time series, if all relevant dynamical variables are measured. The latter assumption, however, is unrealistic in many applications. Therefore we discuss, whether it is possible to embed a scalar time series in a stochastic setting and, if so, how to choose the correct parameters. This leads us to novel time series predictors for Markovian-processes. The performance of these algorithms is demonstrated by numerical examples. In the second part of this work we apply the techniques developed in the first section to hydrodynamic turbulence and the problem of predicting the fluctuations in wind energy production. For a hydrodynamic flow with pronounced coherent structures, nonlinear phase space methods prove to have significantly higher predictive power within such structures than ordinary linear schemes. This knowledge is then applied to time series of atmospheric surface wind velocities and of the power output of a wind turbine. In these cases as well, strong turbulent fluctuations are clearly better predicted by nonlinear methods than by linear ones. This fact has relevant applications for the control of rotor blades of wind turbines as well as for the regulation of conventional power supplies

Feed-in Tariffs and Quotas for Renewable Energy in Europe

Regenerative Energie, Elektrizität, Stromtarif, Förderung regenerativer Energien, EU-Staaten, Renewable energy, Electricity, Electricity price, Renewable energy policy, EU countries

Renewable energy sources to secure the base load in electricity supply. Summary

The share of renewable energies in Germany\u27s electricity supply has been increasing at an impressive rate in recent years: it already amounts to over 20 %, about half of which comes from fluctuating sources - mainly wind power and photovoltaics. In the long term (by 2050), the goal is to achieve almost full supply with renewable energies. This makes it clear that the system of electricity supply will be subject to an upheaval of historic proportions in the coming decades. The TAB report addresses the question of how the base load in the electricity supply can continue to be secured under these conditions. This question can only be addressed in a system perspective that encompasses all levels: from generation to transport and distribution to the consumption of electricity. Therefore, the question expands to how a secure supply can be organised as a whole. It is becoming apparent that the electricity system must be able to react much more flexibly than before to different feed-in and demand situations. Options for increasing flexibility exist in many areas: > Increasing the efficiency of the grids > Increasing the flexibility of the conventional power plant fleet and its mode of operation > Greater orientation of electricity production from renewable energies to demand > load management, and not least the construction of additional storage facilities. In all of these fields of action, the TAB report identifies options for action in which the public sector and the energy policy actors in the executive and legislative branches can contribute to the success of the upcoming transformation of the electricity supply by shaping the framework conditions

Regenerative Energieträger zur Sicherung der Grundlast in der Stromversorgung. Endbericht zum Monitoring

Der Anteil erneuerbarer Energien an der Stromversorgung Deutschlands steigt in den letzten Jahren mit beeindruckender Geschwindigkeit: er beträgt bereits über 20 %, davon etwa die Hälfte aus fluktuierenden Quellen – vor allem Windkraft und Photovoltaik. Langfristig (bis 2050) wird die Zielsetzung einer nahezu Vollversorgung mit erneuerbaren Energien verfolgt. Damit wird deutlich, dass das System der Stromversorgung in den nächsten Jahrzehnten einem Umbruch historischen Ausmaßes unterliegen wird. Der TAB-Bericht geht der Frage nach, wie unter diesen Bedingungen die Grundlast in der Stromversorgung weiterhin gesichert werden kann. Diese Frage kann nur in einer Systemperspektive angegangen werden, die alle Ebenen umfasst: von der Erzeugung über den Transport und die Verteilung bis hin zum Verbrauch von Elektrizität. Daher erweitert sich die Fragestellung dahingehend, wie eine gesicherte Versorgung insgesamt organisiert werden kann. Es zeigt sich, dass das Stromsystem wesentlich flexibler als bisher auf unterschiedliche Einspeise- und Nachfragesituationen reagieren können muss. Optionen zur Steigerung der Flexibilität existieren in vielen Bereichen: > Erhöhung der Leistungsfähigkeit der Netze > Flexibilisierung des konventionellen Kraftwerksparks und dessen Betriebsweise > stärkere Orientierung der Stromproduktion aus erneuerbaren Energien an der Nachfrage > Lastmanagement, sowie nicht zuletzt Errichtung von zusätzlichen Speichern In allen diesen Handlungsfeldern werden im TAB-Bericht Handlungsoptionen identifiziert, wie die öffentliche Hand bzw. die energiepolitischen Akteure in Exekutive und Legislative durch Gestaltung von Rahmenbedingungen dazu beitragen können, dass der anstehende Umbau der Stromversorgung gelingen kann. INHALT ZUSAMMENFASSUNG 5 I. EINLEITUNG 19 II. ELEKTRIZITÄTSVERSORGUNG IN DEUTSCHLAND 23 1. Ausbauziele und Szenarien für RES-E 25 2. Grundlast und gesicherte Versorgung 29 III. STROMNETZE 39 1. Erweiterung der Netzkapazität 39 1.1 Optimierung des Netzbetriebs 39 1.2 Massnahmen zur Netzverstärkung 40 1.3 Netzausbau 42 2. Netzausbaubedarf und Kosten 44 2.1 Deutschland 45 2.2 Europäische Perspektive 54 2.3 Transeuropäisches Supergrid 56 IV. SPEICHER UND WEITERE FLEXIBILISIERUNGSOPTIONEN 63 1. Speicher 64 1.1 Speicherbedarf 66 1.2 Speicherkosten 68 1.3 Speichertechnologien 70 2. Weitere Flexibilisierungsoptionen 83 2.1 Biogas 83 2.2 Wärme als Stromsenke – Verbindung zum Wärmesektor 86 2.3 Lastmanagement 88 2.4 Ausbau des Stromaustausches mit Norwegen 92 2.5 Regenerative Kombi-/Hybridkraftwerke 94 3. Speicher und weitere Flexibilisierungsoptionen: Zwischenfazit 97 V. SZENARIENANALYSE 99 1. Vorgehensweise 99 2. Bestimmung der Einspeiseprofile im Referenzjahr 100 3. Szenariodarstellung 101 4. Situation des Stromversorgungsystems ohne Flexibilisierungsoptionen 103 5. Begrenzungen und Flexibilisierungsoptionen 106 5.1 Systemdienstleistungen 107 5.2 Bestehende Flexibilisierungsoptionen 108 5.3 Geplanter Ausbau der bestehenden Flexibiliersungsoptionen bis 2020 109 6. Parametrisierung der Flexibilisierungsoptionen 111 6.1 Beschreibung des Modellierungsansatzes 112 6.2 Ergebnisse zur Glättung der Residuallast 113 6.3 Ergebnisse zur Glättung der RES-E-Einspeisung 115 6.4 Netzengpässe als weitere Begrenzung 118 7. Kernergebnisse der Analyse 118 VI. INTERNATIONALE ERFAHRUNGEN 121 1. Dänemark 122 2. Iberische Halbinsel 124 3. Vergleich mit Deutschland 125 VII. HANDLUNGSFELDER UND HANDLUNGSOPTIONEN 129 1. Netzengpässe und Netzausbau 129 2. Konventionelle Kraftwerke 131 3. Flexibilisierungsoptionen 133 4. Regelmarkt 137 5. Strommarktdesign 138 6. Europäische Kooperation 138 VIII. LITERATUR 139 1. In Auftrag gegebene Gutachten 139 2. Weitere Literatur 139 IX. ANHANG 153 1. Tabellenverzeichnis 153 2. Abbildungsverzeichnis 15

Action plan for deriving dynamic RES-E policies

The core objective of this project is to facilitate a continuous and significant increase in the share of RESE with minimal costs to European citizen. To identify the most important strategies (e.g. Tradable Green Certificates, Feed-In Tariffs, Investment Subsidies, Emissions Trading, CO2-taxes) in a dynamic way the computer-based toolbox Green-X has been developed. Although within the scope of this project it has not been feasible to investigate all possible issues within this field, the cases analysed cover not only the needs and opportunities at the level of the national Member States, but also those at the level ofthe EU. However, the most important ones have been treated thoroughly. This report, which is the final outcome from the Green-X project (Contract No: ENG2-CT-2002- 00607), with funding from the European Commission, DG Research, provides recommendations on the way forward for the promotion of renewable energy for electricity generation in the EU. It is addressed primarily to energy policy maker, as well as to other people interested in renewable energy and energy policy