Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has developed the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) for making national estimates and short-term projections of HIV prevalence based on observed prevalence trends at antenatal clinics. Assessing the uncertainty about its estimates and projections is important for informed policy decision making, and we propose the use of Bayesian melding for this purpose. Prevalence data and other information about the EPP model's input parameters are used to derive a probabilistic HIV prevalence projection, namely a probability distribution over a set of future prevalence trajectories. We relate antenatal clinic prevalence to population prevalence and account for variability between clinics using a random effects model. Predictive intervals for clinic prevalence are derived for checking the model. We discuss predictions given by the EPP model and the results of the Bayesian melding procedure for Uganda, where prevalence peaked at around 28% in 1990; the 95% prediction interval for 2010 ranges from 2% to 7%.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS111 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has developed the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) for making national estimates and short-term projections of HIV prevalence based on observed prevalence trends at antenatal clinics. Assessing the uncertainty about its estimates and projections is important for informed policy decision making, and we propose the use of Bayesian melding for this purpose. Prevalence data and other information about the EPP model's input parameters are used to derive a probabilistic HIV prevalence projection, namely a probability distribution over a set of future prevalence trajectories. We relate antenatal clinic prevalence to population prevalence and account for variability between clinics using a random effects model. Predictive intervals for clinic prevalence are derived for checking the model. We discuss predictions given by the EPP model and the results of the Bayesian melding procedure for Uganda, where prevalence peaked at around 28% in 1990; the 95% prediction interval for 2010 ranges from 2% to 7%.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS111 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Systematic sensitivity analysis of the full economic impacts of sea level rise

The potential impacts of sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change have been widely studied in the literature. However, the uncertainty and robustness of these estimates has seldom been explored. Here we assess the model input uncertainty regarding the wide effects of SLR on marine navigation from a global economic perspective. We systematically assess the robustness of computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates to model’s inputs uncertainty. Monte Carlo (MC) and Gaussian quadrature (GQ) methods are used for conducting a Systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA). This design allows to both explore the sensitivity of the CGE model and to compare the MC and GQ methods. Results show that, regardless whether triangular or piecewise linear Probability distributions are used, the welfare losses are higher in the MC SSA than in the original deterministic simulation. This indicates that the CGE economic literature has potentially underestimated the total economic effects of SLR, thus stressing the necessity of SSA when simulating the general equilibrium effects of SLR. The uncertainty decomposition shows that land losses have a smaller effect compared to capital and seaport productivity losses. Capital losses seem to affect the developed regions GDP more than the productivity losses do. Moreover, we show the uncertainty decomposition of the MC results and discuss the convergence of the MC results for a decomposed version of the CGE model. This paper aims to provide standardised guidelines for stochastic simulation in the context of CGE modelling that could be useful for researchers in similar settings

Securing the Downside Up: Client and Care Factors Associated with Outcomes of Secure Residential Youth Care

Although secure residential care has the potential of reducing young people's behavioral problems, it is often difficult to achieve positive outcomes. Research suggests that there are several common success factors of treatment, of which the client's motivation for treatment and the quality of the therapeutic relationship between clients and therapists might be especially relevant and important in the context of secure residential care. The objective of the present study was to explore the association of these potential success factors with secure residential care outcomes. A repeated measures research design was applied in the study, including a group of adolescents in a secure residential care center that was followed up on three measurements in time. Interviews and questionnaires concerning care outcomes in terms of adolescents' behavior change during care were administered to 22 adolescents and 27 group care workers. Outcomes in terms of adolescents' treatment satisfaction were assessed by the use of questionnaires, which were completed by 51 adolescents. Adolescents reported some positive changes in their treatment motivation, but those who were more likely to be motivated at admission were also more likely to deteriorate in treatment motivation from admission to departure. Treatment satisfaction was associated with better treatment motivation at admission and with a positive adolescent-group care worker relationship. The results suggest that outcomes can be improved by a more explicit treatment focus on improving the adolescent's treatment motivation and the quality of the adolescent-care worker relationship during secure residential care

A kinematic examination of dual-route processing for action imitation

The dual-route model of imitation suggests that meaningful and meaningless actions are processed through either an indirect or direct route, respectively. Evidence indicates that the direct route is more cognitively demanding, since it relies on mapping visuospatial properties of the observed action on to a performed one. These cognitive demands might negatively influence reaction time and accuracy for actions performed following a meaningless action under time constraints. However, how meaningful and meaningless action imitation processing is reflected in movement kinematics is not yet clear. We wanted to confirm whether meaningless action performance incurs a reaction time cost, whether the cost is reflected in kinematics, and, more generally, to examine kinematic markers of emblematic meaningful and meaningless action imitation. We examined participants’ reaction time and wrist movements when they imitated emblematic meaningful or matched meaningless gestures in either blocks of the same action type, or mixed blocks. Meaningless actions were associated with a greater correction period at the end of the movement, possibly reflecting a strategy designed to ensure accurate completion for less familiar actions under time constraints. Furthermore, in mixed blocks, trials following meaningless actions had a significantly increased reaction time, supporting previous claims that route selection for action imitation may be stimulus-driven. However, there was only convincing evidence for this effect with an interval of ~2948ms, but not ~3573ms or ~2553ms, between movements. Future work motion-tracking the entire hand to assess imitation accuracy, and more closely examining the influence of duration between movements, may help to explain these effects

Different aspects of emotional processes in apathy: Application of the French translated dimensional apathy scale

Apathy is a behavioural symptom that occurs in neuropsychiatric, neurological and neurodegenerative disease. It is defined as a lack of motivation and/or a quantitative reduction of goal-directed behaviour. Levy and Dubois Cerebral Cortex, 16(7), 916–928 (2006) proposed a triadic substructure of apathy and similar subtypes can be assessed using the Dimensional Apathy Scale (DAS), via the Executive, Emotional and Initiation subscales. The aim of this study was to translate the DAS in to French (f-DAS), examine its psychometric properties and the substructure of apathy using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). The results showed an acceptable internal consistency reliability of the f-DAS and a similar relationship to depression as in the original DAS development study. The CFA supported a triadic dimensional substructure of the f-DAS, similar to the original DAS but suggested a more complex substructure, specifically, two further processes of the Emotional apathy dimension relating to “Social Emotional” and “Individual Emotional” aspects of demotivation. To conclude, the f-DAS is a robust and reliable tool for assessing multidimensional apathy. Further research should explore the utility of the f-DAS in patients with neuropsychiatric diseases in view of social emotional aspects in apathy

Geographic mobility and social inequality among Peruvian university students

The purpose of this study was to explore geographic mobility among university students in Peru and to understand how mobility patterns differ by region and by demographic indicators of inequality. The ways that students may be able to move geographically in order to access quality higher education within the educational system can be a driver of equality or inequality, depending on who is able to take advantage. Using data from a university census, we examine how demographic indicators of inequality are related to geographic mobility for university attendance, how prior geographic mobility predicts later mobility for university attendance, and how these relationships differ based on the number and quality of universities in a region. Results show that sociodemographic variables related to social inequality explain a substantial amount of students\u27 postsecondary mobility. However, some of these relationships do not operate in the same way in all of the regions. Depending on the availability of universities and their quality, patterns of association between inequality and geographic mobility change. Implications for higher education policy as well as further research examining geographic mobility and inequality in education are discussed

Being there: a preliminary study examining the role of presence in Internet Gaming Disorder

Internet Gaming Disorder (IGD) has been introduced as an emerging mental health condition requiring further study. Associations between IGD and gaming presence (i.e., absorption in the virtual environment) have been implied. The aim of the present study was twofold: (a) to evaluate the extent to which presence contributes to IGD severity and, (b) to examine longitudinal differences in IGD according to the initial level of presence experienced. The participants comprising 125 emerging adults aged 18 to 29 years completed either: (i) three face-to-face assessments (one month apart, over three months) or (ii) a cross-sectional, online assessment. IGD was assessed with the nine-item IGD Scale Short Form and presence was assessed using the Presence Questionnaire. Regression and latent growth modelling analyses were conducted. Findings demonstrated that the level of gaming presence related to IGD severity but not to linear change in severity over a three-month period. The study shows that emergent adults who play internet games may be at a high risk of IGD given a more salient sense of being present within the gaming environment. Clinical implications considering prevention and intervention initiatives are discussed