Model upravljanja rizikom u auto-osiguranju

The main objective of the research in this dissertation, which was set up was to develop a risk management model in auto-insurance. Within the research identified a new criterion has not been considered when assessing the risk auto insurance, such as penalties driver. The scientific contribution of the doctoral thesis is reflected in the fact that it is proven that in addition to the two criteria Serbian insurance company used for the conclusion of contracts of compulsory insurance - motor and system of bonus-malus introducing and third criteria - penalties driver gets more realistic premium compulsory motor vehicle insurance, and therefore encourage drivers to become more careful traffic participants. The main proposal in defining the new model was that the number of penalties driver required to take into consideration. This new model is not only to be more suitable for home insurance and insurance for customers, but also to motivate drivers to behave in accordance with the regulations, to adapt their driving environments, which would reduce the number of accidents. In the end, that this model was implemented, is needed is a unified database driver penalty points, which could form the traffic police, and that would have been available to insurance companies in order to apply this model when concluding contracts on compulsory automobile insurance. Also, the direction of further research should be moving in the direction of finding any other criteria that can contribute to a more realistic price of compulsory motor vehicle insurance, and therefore better road safety

Uticaj obima analiziranih podataka na tačnost selekcijskih indeksa za procenu priplodne vrednosti krmača

Objective of this paper was to establish to what extent the accuracy of constructed selection indices will be changed depending on the scope of analyzed data relating to fertility based on which parameters necessary for construction of selection indices (SI) were established. Fertility results of Swedish Landrace sows obtained on three farms in Republic of Serbia (farms 1, 2 and 3) were analyzed. Parameters necessary for construction of SI were determined by application of different mixed models of the method of Least Squares. For each farm three SI were constructed for evaluation of sow breeding value based on realized fertility in the way that parameters necessary for SI construction were calculated based on fertility results in the first (SI1), first two (SI2) and first three farrowings (SI3). Accuracy of constructed Sis varied within following limits - from low rIH = 0.255 (SI3 for Farm 2) to rIH = 0.405 (SI1 for Farm 3), and only in the case of SI2 for Farm 2 it was in the category of very low (rIH = 0.231). Introduction into analysis of fertility results realized in the second and third farrowing resulted in decrease of accuracy of constructed selection indices.U ovom radu rezultati istraživanja su pokazali da je tačnost selekcijskih indeksa konstruisanih na osnovu parametara ocenjenih analizom rezultata plodnosti (BŽP i BOP) ostvarenih na posmatranim farmama bila od rIH = 0.255 (SI3 za Farmu 2) do rIH = 0.405 (SI1 za Farmu 3), a samo je u slučaju SI2 za Farmu 2 bila u kategoriji jako slabe (rIH = 0.231). Povećanje obima analiziranih rezultata plodnosti dovelo je do smanjenja tačnosti SI

Uticaj rase, nerasta i sezone na neke osobine sperme

The main objective of this study was to assess the phenotypic variability of the ejaculate volume (VOL) and progressive sperm motility (MO) under the influence of breed, boar within breed and season. The study included 555 ejaculates of Danish Landrace (DL), Danish Large White (DLW) and Danish Duroc (DD) boars. The effect of boar was analyzed within the investigated breeds. The impact of the season was investigated as the influence of the month in which the ejaculate was taken. The model included a linear regression effect of boar age when the semen was taken. Data analysis was performed using the statistical package SAS 9.1.3 (SAS Inst. Inc.., 2002-2003). Impact assessment was carried out using the GLM procedure. The impact of all factors analyzed in both sperm traits was significant to highly significant, and the observed factors largely explain the phenotypic variability VOL compared to MO. The highest values were found in VOL of DL boar (3:58 ± 164.96 ml), and the MO of boar breed DLW (85.45 ± 0.94%). Boars DD had VOL and MO below the averages of all analyzed breeds. Between boars within studied genotypes differences were established (p (lt) 0.05, p (lt) 0.05, p (lt) 0.01 p (lt) 0.001) and a boar of DLW breed compared to all tested boars had the highest volume of ejaculate sperm with progressive motility of 90.47%. Volume, or mobility varied (p (lt) 0.01 or p (lt) 0.05) influenced by season, and in September and October boars had ejaculates with the VOL values above average and the lowest MO. Since most VOL and MO above the annual average in June, it was possible to get the highest number of doses per ejaculate with optimal reproductive/fertile ability.Osnovni cilj rada bio je da se oceni fenotipska varijabilnost volumena ejakulata (VOL) i progresivne pokretljivosti spermatozoida (MO) pod uticajem rase, nerasta unutar rase i sezone. Istraživanjem je bilo obuhvaćeno 555 ejakulata nerasta rase danski landras (DL), danski jorkšir (DLW) i danski durok (DD). Uticaj nerasta analiziran je unutar ispitivanih rasa. Uticaj sezone ispitivan je kao uticaj meseca u kojem je uzet ejakulat. U model je uključen i linearni regresijski uticaj starosti nerasta prilikom uzimanja ejakulata. Obrada podataka izvršena je pomoću statističkog paketa SAS 9.1.3 (SAS Inst. Inc., 2002-2003). Ocena uticaja je izvršena primenom GLM procedure. Uticaj svih analiziranih faktora na obe osobine sperme bio je značajan do vrlo visoko značajan, a posmatrani faktori u većoj meri objašnjavaju fenotipsku varijabilnost VOL u odnosu na MO. Najveće vrednosti VOL utvrđene su kod nerasta rase DL (164.96±3.58 ml), a MO kod nerasta rase DLW (85.45±0.94%). Nerasti DD imali su VOL i MO ispod proseka svih analiziranih rasa. Između nerasta unutar ispitivanih genotipova utvrđene su razlike (p>0.05, p (lt) 0.05, p (lt) 0.01, p (lt) 0.001), a nerast rase DLW u odnosu na sve ispitivane neraste imao je najveći volumen ejakulata sa progresivnom pokretljivošću spermatozoida od 90.47%. Volumen, odnosno pokretljivost su varirali (p (lt) 0.01, odnosno p (lt) 0.05) pod uticajem sezone, a u periodu septembar-oktobar nerasti su imali ejakulate sa vrednostima VOL iznad proseka i najnižom MO. S obzirom na najveći VOL i MO iznad godišnjeg proseka, u junu mesecu je bilo moguće dobiti najveći broj doza po ejakulatu sa optimalnom fertilnom sposobnošću

Sastav polutki i kvalitet mesa lasaste mangulice gajene u dva sistema

Objective of this paper was to determine the composition of carcass sides and quality of meat obtained from two groups of fatteners (male castrated pigs) of Swallow-Belly Mangalitsa breed. First group was reared in an open system (SO, n=13) and the other group in farm conditions with free ranges (SI, n=10). Animals were slaughtered in the same slaughtering facility. Left carcass sides were dissected and percentage of meat (Actual LMP) calculated according to EU reference method (EC, No 1249/2008). Data obtained in the study was analyzed using GLM procedure of the program package SAS 9.1.3 (SAS Inst.Inc., 2002-2003).Average pre slaughter body weight of fatteners was 103.83 ± 10.13 kg. Housing and nutrition system in production of fatteners had statistically highly significant effect (p (lt) .0001) on pre-slaughter age of fatteners. Statistically significant differences were obtained only in mean values obtained for back fat measured on single location/position - lower back (BFR I) between fatteners of groups SO and SI. Total weight of all individual carcass side parts and weight of relevant muscle tissue, depended on the weight of warm carcass sides (WHC) but not on the housing system (SBF). Carcass sides of fatteners contained in average 35.64 ± 4.39% of muscle tissue (Actual LMP). Meat content in carcass sides (Predicted LMP) was determined according to Rulebook/Pravilnik (1985) for fatty pig breeds and it was 29.67 ± 1.27%. In the musculus longissimus dorsi (MLD) of fatteners reared in closed system, was recorded higher content of water (p=0.0069), lower content of total fats/lipids (p=0.0081) and higher content of ash (p=0.0392) compared to animals from the open system of housing. No statistically significant differences in average protein content (p=0.5940) and pH1 value (p=0.0659) were established between fatteners reared in open and closed system of housing.Cilj ovog rada je bio da se utvrdi sastav polutki i kvalitet mesa tovljenika (muška kastrirana grla) lasaste mangulice gajenih u dva sistema držanja i ishrane. Ustanovljene su statistički značajne razlike srednjih vrednosti samo debljine slanine izmerene na jednoj poziciji na krstima (BFR I) između tovljenika gajenih u otvorenom i zatvorenom sistemu. Sve linearne mere toplih polutki, osim BFR II i BFR III, zavisile su od mase toplih polutki odnosno mase tovljenika pri klanju. Ukupna masa sva četiri pojedinačna dela polutke i masa mišićnog tkiva u njima, zavisila je od mase toplih polutki ali ne i sistema držanja. U polutkama tovljenika bilo je prosečno 35,64 ± 4,39% mišićnog tkiva (Stvarni MTP). Sadržaj mesa u polutkama prema PRAVILNIKU (1985) (Procenjeni MTP) za masne svinje iznosio je 29,67 ± 1,27%. U MLD tovljenika držanih u zatvorenom sistemu utvrđen je veći sadržaj vode (+2,22%, p=0,0069), manji ukupnih masti (-2,64%, p=0,0081) i veći sadržaj pepela (+0,07%, p=0,0392) nego kod grla iz otvorenog sistema držanja

Uticaj proizvodnih osobina u direktnom testu nazimica na varijabilnost njihovih reproduktivnih osobina kao prvopraskinja

Objective of this paper was to establish genetic and environmental factors which influence the variation of reproductive parameters in primiparous sows with special focus on how selection on growth traits and lean meat content can influence the fertility in gilts as primiparous sows. Investigation included 1092 primiparous sows of Swedish Landrace breed. Production traits of gilts in direct test were previously adjusted to body weight of 100 kg, and subsequently they were grouped in 4 classes based on standard deviations for each of adjusted production trait. For analysis of data several models of the Least Squares Method were used (Harvey, 1990). Sires influenced the variation of age at first conception, litter size at birth and weaning and period weaning-conception of their daughters (P (lt) 0.001 to P (lt) 0.05). Age at first conception, number of live born piglets and total born piglets varied statistically significantly (P (lt) 0.001 to P (lt) 0.05) by the influence of adjusted lifetime average daily gain, but not under the influence of adjusted back fat thickness and lean meat content.Očevi su uticali na variranje uzrasta pri prvoj oplodnji, veličinu legla pri rođenju i zalučenju i perioda zalučenje-oplodnja svojih kćeri (P (lt) 0.001 do P (lt) 0.05). Uzrast pri prvoj oplodnji, broj živorođene i ukupno rođene prasadi su statistički značajno varirali (P (lt) 0.001 do P (lt) 0.05) pod uticajem korigovanog prosečnog životnog dnevnog prirasta ali ne i korigovane debljine leđne slanine i mesnatosti

Uticaj različitih fiksnih faktora na osobine kvaliteta trupa i mesa svinja

Objective of the paper was to investigate the effect of the sire breed (Swedish landrace and Large Yorkshire) and sex (female animals and male castrates) on quality of carcass and pig meat. Established fat thickenss was the highest at withers (33,21 mm) and the thinnest at rump in the center of m. gluteusa medius (18,48 mm). Sire breed had influence (p (lt) 0,01) on back fat thickness in the central part, whereas sex influenced (p (lt) 0,05) backfat thickenss at withers. Lean meat of Swedish Landrace progeny established by partial dissection EU was 52,91 % and according to current Regulation 42,89 % and it was higher compared to progeny (SLxLY) whose sires were Large Yorkshire breed. Established difference in share of meat between sire breeds by application of these two methods was 10,02 and 8,83 %. Higher share of meat (EU 53,20 %) was established in female progeny by 2,27 % in comparison to male progeny (p (lt) 0,05). Also, sire breed influenced (p (lt) 0,05 and p (lt) 0,01) pH, water binding capacity, softness and thickenss of muscle fibre, whereas the sex influenced (p (lt) 0,01) colour of musculus longissimus. Sire breed and sex had no influence on investigated chemical traits of m. longissimus (p>0,05).Cilj rada je bio da se ispita uticaj rase oca (švedski landras i veliki jorkšir) i pola (ženski, muški kastrati) na kvalitet trupa i mesa svinja. Utvđena vrednost debljine slanine je bila najveća na grebenu (33,21 mm) a najtanja na krstima na sredini m. gluteusa medius (18,48 mm). Rasa oca je uticala (p (lt) 0,01) na debljinu slanine na sredini leđa dok je pol uticao (p (lt) 0,05) na debljinu slanine na grbenu. Mesnatost potomaka švedskog landrasa utvrđena parcijalnom disekcijom EU iznosi 52,91 % a po važećem Pravilniku 42,89 % i veća je u odnosu na potomake (ŠLxVJ) čiji su očevi rase veliki jorkšir. Utvrđena razlika udela mesa između rasa očeva primenom ova dva metoda iznosi 10,02 i 8,83 %. Veći udeo mesa (EU 53,20 %) imali su ženski potomci za 2,27 % u odnosu na muška (p (lt) 0,05). Takođe, rasa oca je uticala (p (lt) 0,05 i p (lt) 0,01) na pH, sposobnost vezivanja vode, mekoću i debljinu mišičnog vlakna dok je pol uticao (p (lt) 0,01) na boju m. longissimus dorsi. Rasa oca i pol nisu uticali na ispitivane hemijske osobine m. longissimus dorsi (p>0,05)

Naslednost i povezanost osobina veličine legla svinja utvrđena REML metodom

The aim of this study was to determine the heritability coefficients and the correlation between the number of live born piglets (NBA), the number of stillborn piglets (NSB), the number of total born piglets (NTB) and the number of weaned piglets (NW) in the part of population in Swedish Landrace sows in R. Serbia. The results obtained should enable the selection of litter size traits that would be proposed to be included in the selection - breeding program for this breed. The analysis of parameters was carried out on the basis of data on fertility of 4.061 Swedish Landrace sows and their 15.209 litters realized on two pig farms in R. Serbia. There was a genetic relationship between animals among the farms. Components of variance and covariance of observed traits, the share of additive genetic variance component in the phenotypic and correlation of traits at phenotypic and genetic levels, were evaluated using the method of Restricted Maximum Likelihood (REML) using the Multitrait Model (MM). Heritability estimates for the NBA, NSB, NTB and NW amounted to 6.4, 1.6, 6.7 and 1.1%, respectively. Correlation between the NBA and NTB at the phenotypic and genetic level was complete (rP = 0986, rG = 0938). Correlation between the NBA and NW at the phenotypic level has not been established, while at the genetic level it was weak. We believe that this is the result of the procedure of equalizing of litters after farrowing. In order to obtain objective genetic parameters for NW this procedure should not be applied in pure breed sows.Cilj istraživanja bio je da se utvrde koeficijenti naslednosti i povezanosti između broja živorođene prasadi (NBA), broja mrtvorođene prasadi (NSB), broja ukupno rođene prasadi (NTB) i broja odgajene prasadi (NW) u delu populacije krmača rase švedski landras u R. Srbiji. Dobijeni rezultati treba da omoguće izbor osobina veličine legla koje bi bile predložene za uključivanje u selekcijsko - odgajivački program za ovu rasu. Ocena analiziranih parametara sprovedena je na osnovu podataka o plodnosti 4061 krmača rase švedski landras i njihovih 15209 legala ostvarenih na dve farme svinja u R. Srbiji između kojih postoji genetska povezanost među životinjama. Komponente varijanse i kovarijanse posmatranih osobina, udeo aditivne genetske komponente varijanse u fenotipskoj i povezanost osobina na fenotipskom i genetskom nivou ocenjene su metodom ograničene najveće verovatnoće (REML - Restricted Maximum Likelihood) primenom višeosobinskog modela (MM - Multitrait Model). Heritabiliteti za NBA, NSB, NTB i NW su iznosili 6.4, 1.6, 6.7 i 1.1 %, respectively. Povezanost NBA i NTB na fenotipskom i na genetskom nivou je bila potpuna (rP = 0.986, rG = 0.938). Povezanost NBA i NW na fenotipskom nivou nije utvrđena, dok je na genetskom bila slaba. Smatramo da je to posledica postupka ujednačavanja legala posle prašenja. Radi dobijanja objektivnih genetskih parametara za NW ovaj postupak ne treba primenjivati kod čistorasnih krmača

Naslednost i povezanost osobina plodnosti krmača

Purpose of this paper was to determine fertility traits heritability coefficients of the sows (number of live born, total number of born, stillborn and reared piglets in the litter) and interconnections between these traits. Heritability coefficients were low and averaged in interval from h2 = 0,056 for number of reared piglets in litter to h2 = 0,142 for total number of born piglets in litter, which is in accordance with heritability values for reproductive traits. Genetic interconnections of these traits had wide variation interval and averaged from r = - 0,221 between number of still born and reared piglets in litter to r = 0,947 between total number of born and number of live born piglets in litter. Coefficients of phenotype correlation varied in interval from r = -0,162 between number of still born and number of live born piglets in litter to r = 0,909 between total number of born and number of live born piglets in litter.Cilj rada bio je da se utvrde koeficijenti naslednosti osobina plodnosti krmača (broj živorođene, ukupno rođene, mrtvorođene i odgajene prasadi u leglu) i međusobna povezanost ovih osobina. Koeficijenti heritabiliteta su bili niski i kretali su se u intervalu od h2 = 0,056 za broj odgajene prasadi u leglu do h2 = 0,142 za broj ukupno rođene prasadi u leglu, što je u skladu sa vrednostima heritabiliteta za reproduktivne osobine. Genetska povezanost ovih osobina imala je širok interval variranja i kretala se od r = -0,221 između broja mrtvorođene i broja odgajene prasadi u leglu, do r = 0,947 između broja ukupno rođene i broja živorođene prasadi u leglu. Koeficijenti fenotipske korelacije kretali su se u intervalu od r = -0,162 između broja mrtvorođene i broja živorođene prasadi u leglu, do r = 0,909 između broja ukupno rođene i broja živorođene prasadi u leglu

Plodnost nerasta - šta je važno znati

The most important part in reproductive management is the control of boar fertility. A common division of fertility traits is on the: in vitro (sperm traits) and in vivo (return rate, farrowing rate and litter size traits) fertility. In many studies were found differences between breed in the both groups of fertility traits. Variability of sperm traits of boars during the reproductive exploitation is influenced by various genetic (boar, breed) and paragenetic factors/effects (age, season, intensity of use). Good libido is desirable characteristics in boars, but the knowledge of the correlation of libido and boar fertility traits are limited. Also, there is no standardised procedure or methods for the estimation of libido of the boars. The permanent ranking of boars according to the reproductive efficiency should be performing. Good reproductive management implies the timely identification of boars with the low fertility (or close to the average).Najvažniji segment u reproduktivnom menadžmentu je kontrola plodnosti nerasta. Uobičajena je podela osobina plodnosti na: in vitro (osobine sperme) i in vivo (procenat povađanja, procenat prašenja i osobine veličine legla) plodnost. Mnoga istraživanja pokazala su razlike između rasa u obe grupe osobina plodnosti. Varijabilnost osobina sperme nerasta tokom iskorišćavanja pod uticajem je različitih genetskih (nerast, rasa) i paragenetskih (starost, sezona, intenzitet korišćenja) faktora. Dobar libido je poželjna karakteristika nerasta, ali saznanja o povezanosti libida i plodnosti nerasta su ograničena. Takođe ne postoji standardizovana procedura ili metod za ocenu libida nerasta. Neophodno je stalno rangiranje nerasta na osnovu reproduktivne efikasnosti. Dobar reproduktivni menadžment podrazumeva pravovremenu identifikaciju nerasta sa niskom plodnošću (ili blizu proseka)

The Assessment of Breeding Value of First Farrowed Sows by the Method of Selection Indices

The goal of this research paper was to assess the breeding value of first farrowed Swedish Landrace sows by the means of selection indices method. The traits on the basis of which the breeding value of animals was assessed are following: daily liveweight gain, average thickness of collected back fat measured at five sites and number of liveborn piglets in the first litter. The liveweight gain and carcass quality traits determined at the end of performance test were corrected for the body mass of 100kg by the method of basic indexes and following mean values were determined: for corrected daily liveweight gain (KZDP) 499.92g/day and for corrected average collected backfat thickness (KSL) 20.01mm. The first farrowed sows on average produced 8.09 liveborn piglets in the litter. Studying the effect of the gilts` birth year and season on KZDP and KSL it was determined that the gilts` birth year and season had no statistically significant influence (P>0.05) on KZDP variation but they had a statistically significant effect on KSL (P lt 0.01). The year and the season of farrowing and the class of backfat thickness in performance test did not display any statistically significant effect (P>0.05) on BZPL, while the KZDP class and the age at first farrowing had a statistically significant effect on the variability of these trait (P lt 0.05; P lt 0.01). All studied traits varied statistically significantly (P lt 0.01) under the impact of the gilts` sire or dam. Heritability coefficients were: h2= 0.402 for KZDP, h2= 0.261 for KSL and h2= 0.177 for BZPL. The relation between KZDP and KSL was of a medium strength both at phenotype and genetic levels (rph=0.491; rg=0.411), while the relation of these traits with BZPL did not exist, except for the genetic relationship between KSL and KZDP which was of a medium strength (rg=0.252). Three equations for the selection indexes were constructed among which as the most optimal was chosen the one which includes all three traits (KZDP, KSL and BZPL) and whose correlation coefficent of selection index and aggregate genotype was rIAG = 0.5473