A Meta-Analysis of Global Urban Land Expansion

The conversion of Earth's land surface to urban uses is one of the most irreversible human impacts on the global biosphere. It drives the loss of farmland, affects local climate, fragments habitats, and threatens biodiversity. Here we present a meta-analysis of 326 studies that have used remotely sensed images to map urban land conversion. We report a worldwide observed increase in urban land area of 58,000 km2 from 1970 to 2000. India, China, and Africa have experienced the highest rates of urban land expansion, and the largest change in total urban extent has occurred in North America. Across all regions and for all three decades, urban land expansion rates are higher than or equal to urban population growth rates, suggesting that urban growth is becoming more expansive than compact. Annual growth in GDP per capita drives approximately half of the observed urban land expansion in China but only moderately affects urban expansion in India and Africa, where urban land expansion is driven more by urban population growth. In high income countries, rates of urban land expansion are slower and increasingly related to GDP growth. However, in North America, population growth contributes more to urban expansion than it does in Europe. Much of the observed variation in urban expansion was not captured by either population, GDP, or other variables in the model. This suggests that contemporary urban expansion is related to a variety of factors difficult to observe comprehensively at the global level, including international capital flows, the informal economy, land use policy, and generalized transport costs. Using the results from the global model, we develop forecasts for new urban land cover using SRES Scenarios. Our results show that by 2030, global urban land cover will increase between 430,000 km2 and 12,568,000 km2, with an estimate of 1,527,000 km2 more likely

Housing Arrangement and Location Determine the Likelihood of Housing Loss Due to Wildfire

Surging wildfires across the globe are contributing to escalating residential losses and have major social, economic, and ecological consequences. The highest losses in the U.S. occur in southern California, where nearly 1000 homes per year have been destroyed by wildfires since 2000. Wildfire risk reduction efforts focus primarily on fuel reduction and, to a lesser degree, on house characteristics and homeowner responsibility. However, the extent to which land use planning could alleviate wildfire risk has been largely missing from the debate despite large numbers of homes being placed in the most hazardous parts of the landscape. Our goal was to examine how housing location and arrangement affects the likelihood that a home will be lost when a wildfire occurs. We developed an extensive geographic dataset of structure locations, including more than 5500 structures that were destroyed or damaged by wildfire since 2001, and identified the main contributors to property loss in two extensive, fire-prone regions in southern California. The arrangement and location of structures strongly affected their susceptibility to wildfire, with property loss most likely at low to intermediate structure densities and in areas with a history of frequent fire. Rates of structure loss were higher when structures were surrounded by wildland vegetation, but were generally higher in herbaceous fuel types than in higher fuel-volume woody types. Empirically based maps developed using housing pattern and location performed better in distinguishing hazardous from non-hazardous areas than maps based on fuel distribution. The strong importance of housing arrangement and location indicate that land use planning may be a critical tool for reducing fire risk, but it will require reliable delineations of the most hazardous locations

Burning in Banksia Woodlands: How Does the Fire-Free Period Influence Reptile Communities?

Fire is an important management tool for both hazard reduction burning and maintenance of biodiversity. The impact of time since last fire on fauna is an important factor to understand as land managers often aim for prescribed burning regimes with specific fire-free intervals. However, our current understanding of the impact of time since last fire on fauna is largely unknown and likely dependent on vegetation type. We examined the responses of reptiles to fire age in banksia woodlands, and the interspersed melaleuca damplands among them, north of Perth, Western Australia, where the current prescribed burning regime is targeting a fire-free period of 8–12 years. The response of reptiles to fire was dependent on vegetation type. Reptiles were generally more abundant (e.g. Lerista elegans and Ctenophorus adelaidensis) and specious in banksia sites. Several species (e.g. Menetia greyii, Cryptoblepharus buchananii) preferred long unburnt melaleuca sites (>16 years since last fire, YSLF) compared to recently burnt sites (<12 YSLF). Several of the small elapids (e.g. the WA priority listed species Neelaps calonotus) were only detected in older-aged banksia sites (>16 YSLF). The terrestrial dragon C. adelaidensis and the skink Morethia obscura displayed a strong response to fire in banksia woodlands only. Highest abundances of the dragon were detected in the recently burnt (<7 YSLF) and long unburnt (>35 YSLF) banksia woodlands, while the skink was more abundant in older sites. Habitats from a range of fire ages are required to support the reptiles we detected, especially the longer unburnt (>16 YSLF) melaleuca habitat. Current burning prescriptions are reducing the availability of these older habitats

Forest landscape ecology and global change: an introduction

Forest landscape ecology examines broad-scale patterns and processes and their interactions in forested systems and informs the management of these ecosystems. Beyond being among the richest and the most complex terrestrial systems, forest landscapes serve society by providing an array of products and services and, if managed properly, can do so sustainably. In this chapter, we provide an overview of the field of forest landscape ecology, including major historical and present topics of research, approaches, scales, and applications, particularly those concerning edges, fragmentation, connectivity, disturbance, and biodiversity. In addition, we discuss causes of change in forest landscapes, particularly land-use and management changes, and the expected structural and functional consequences that may result from these drivers. This chapter is intended to set the context and provide an overview for the remainder of the book and poses a broad set of questions related to forest landscape ecology and global change that need answers

Influence of seasonality and vegetation type on suburban microclimates

Urbanization is responsible for some of the fastest rates of land-use change around the world, with important consequences for local, regional, and global climate. Vegetation, which represents a significant proportion of many urban and suburban landscapes, can modify climate by altering local exchanges of heat, water vapor, and CO2. To determine how distinct urban forest communities vary in their microclimate effects over time, we measured stand-level leaf area index, soil temperature, infrared surface temperature, and soil water content over a complete growing season at 29 sites representing the five most common vegetation types in a suburban neighborhood of Minneapolis–Saint Paul, Minnesota. We found that seasonal patterns of soil and surface temperatures were controlled more by differences in stand-level leaf area index and tree cover than by plant functional type. Across the growing season, sites with high leaf area index had soil temperatures that were 7°C lower and surface temperatures that were 6°C lower than sites with low leaf area index. Site differences in mid-season soil temperature and turfgrass ground cover were best explained by leaf area index, whereas differences in mid-season surface temperature were best explained by percent tree cover. The significant cooling effects of urban tree canopies on soil temperature imply that seasonal changes in leaf area index may also modulate CO2 efflux from urban soils, a highly temperature-dependent process, and that this should be considered in calculations of total CO2 efflux for urban carbon budgets. Field-based estimates of percent tree cover were found to better predict mid-season leaf area index than satellite-derived estimates and consequently offer an approach to scale up urban biophysical properties

Trajectories of change in Mediterranean Holocene vegetation through classification of pollen data

© 2017 Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature Quantification of vegetation cover from pollen analysis has been a goal of palynologists since the advent of the method in 1916 by the great Lennart von Post. Pollen-based research projects are becoming increasingly ambitious in scale, and the emergence of spatially extensive open-access datasets, advanced methods and computer power has facilitated sub-continental analysis of Holocene pollen data. This paper presents results of one such study, focussing on the Mediterranean basin. Pollen data from 105 fossil sequences have been extracted from the European Pollen database, harmonised by both taxonomy and chronologies, and subjected to a hierarchical agglomerative clustering method to synthesise the dataset into 16 main groupings. A particular focus of analysis was to describe the common transitions from one group to another to understand pathways of Holocene vegetation change in the Mediterranean. Two pollen-based indices of human impact (OJC: Oleaceae, Juglans, Castanea; API: anthropogenic pollen indicators) have been used to infer the degree of human modification of vegetation within each pollen grouping. Pollen-inferred cluster groups that are interpreted as representing more natural vegetation states show a restricted number of pathways of change. A set of cluster groups were identified that closely resemble anthropogenically-disturbed vegetation, and might be considered anthromes (anthopogenic biomes). These clusters show a very wide set of potential pathways, implying that all potential vegetation communities identified through this analysis have been altered in response to land exploitation and transformation by human societies in combination with other factors, such as climatic change. Future work to explain these ecosystem pathways will require developing complementary datasets from the social sciences and humanities (archaeology and historical sources), along with synthesis of the climatic records from the region