Elections and Ethnic Civil War

Existing research on how democratization may influence the risk of civil war tends to consider only changes in the overall level of democracy and rarely examines explicitly the postulated mechanisms relating democratization to incentives for violence. The authors argue that typically highlighted key mechanisms imply that elections should be especially likely to affect ethnic groups’ inclination to resort to violence. Distinguishing between types of conflict and the order of competitive elections, the authors find that ethnic civil wars are more likely to erupt after competitive elections, especially after first and second elections following periods of no polling. When disaggregating to the level of individual ethnic groups and conflicts over territory or government, the authors find some support for the notion that ethno-nationalist mobilization and sore-loser effects provoke postelectoral violence. More specifically, although large groups in general are more likely to engage in governmental conflicts, they are especially likely to do so after noncompetitive elections. Competitive elections, however, strongly reduce the risk of conflict. </jats:p

The Spectrum of Benign Esophageal Lesions: Imaging Findings

Benign esophageal lesions occur in various diseases. Barium studies are useful for the evaluation of mucosal surface lesions but provide little information about the extramucosal extent of disease. Computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging, on the other hand, permit the assessment of wall thickness, mediastinal involvement, adjacent lymphadenopathy, and distant spread. In diseases such as fibrovascular polyps, duplication cysts, scleroderma, trauma, caustic esophagitis, hiatal hernia, esophageal diverticulum, achalasia, and paraesophageal varices, the findings of imaging studies are specific, obviating the need for further invasive diagnostic work-up. The advent of helical computed tomography and its volume data set allows the acquisition of multiplanar images, and magnetic resonance imaging is useful both for this and for tissue characterization. Thus, multiplanar cross-sectional imaging further extends the role of imaging modalities to the evaluation of benign esophageal lesions. Through an awareness of the multiplanar cross-sectional appearances of various benign esophageal lesions, the radiologist can play an important role in the detection, diagnosis, further diagnostic planning, and treatment of the diseases in which they occur

Power-sharing: Institutions, Behavior, and Peace

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.Replication Materials: The data, code, and any additional materials required to replicate all analyses in this article are available on the American Journal of Political Science Dataverse within the Harvard Dataverse Network, at: https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/3DK6JAGrievances that derive from the unequal treatment of ethnic groups are a key motivation for civil war. Ethnic power-sharing should therefore reduce the risk of internal conflict. Yet conflict researchers disagree on whether formal power-sharing institutions effectively prevent large-scale violence.We can improve our understanding of the effect of power-sharing institutions by analyzing the mechanisms under which they operate. To this effect, we compare the direct effect of formal power-sharing institutions on peace with their indirect effect through power-sharing behavior. Combining data on inclusive and territorially dispersive institutions with information on power-sharing behavior, we empirically assess this relationship on a global scale. Our causal mediation analysis reveals that formal power-sharing institutions affect the probability of ethnic conflict onset mostly through power-sharing behavior that these institutions induce.Funding: Swiss National Science Foundation (Grant No. 105511- 143213; PI: Cederman, Hug, and Wucherpfennig), the National Science Foundation (Grant No. Q2 SES-081950766b; PI: Strøom), and the Norwegian Research Council (196850/F10; PI: Gates)

Winning Peace Frames: Intra-Ethnic Outbidding in Northern Ireland and Cyprus

Ethnic outbidding in divided societies can have dire political consequences, ranging from the derailment of peace processes to inter-ethnic warfare. This article investigates the conditions contributing to successful outbidding within the framework of protracted peace negotiations by using the contrasting cases of Northern Ireland and Cyprus. Evidence demonstrates that successful outbidders are able to exploit the fears of their communities with respect to inter-ethnic compromise while identifying appropriate strategies and opportunities for redressing these grievances. The article demonstrates that the degree of outbidding success over the long term derives from combining diagnostic and prognostic frames linked to credible political and constitutional strategies

Tax revenues in the European Union: Recent trends and challenges ahead

The governments of the European Union are facing important challenges that may impact both their need and their capacity to collect taxes. First, ageing will increase some social spending while reducing the potential of some tax bases such as labour. Second, globalisation has the potential to increase the mobility of capital and of high-skilled workers, making it more difficult to rely on them as a source of revenues. Finally, the desire to shift tax away from labour and to make work pay while retaining the social models will force Member States to find alternative robust tax bases. This paper reviews the most recent trends in taxation in the European Union and discusses several tax policy issues in the light of those coming challenges