A percentile‐based approach to rainfall scenario construction for surface‐water flood forecasts

A novel technique to produce reasonable worst‐case rainfall scenarios from ensemble forecasts is presented. This type of scenario is relevant for predicting the risk of localized, intense rainfall events with a duration between 15 min and several hours. Such rainfall events can cause surface‐water (pluvial) flooding. Producing useful forecasts of these events at lead times of more than a few hours is challenging due to the precision and accuracy in rainfall intensity, duration and location that is required. The technique described here addresses these challenges by constructing appropriate scenarios using a neighbourhood technique in combination with ensemble forecasting. It is similar to the distance‐dependent depth–duration analysis described in earlier studies, but it introduces an additional post‐processing step based on probability distribution functions of rainfall accumulation near a location of interest. This additional step makes the reasonable worst‐case scenarios less dependent on grid‐scale behaviour, and helps to generate scenarios with a consistent interpretation. The method is used to compare forecasts with a lead time of 6–36 hr to radar data for several case studies that occurred in Yorkshire. These comparisons also introduce new techniques to present maps of the reasonable worst‐case rainfall accumulation at each location

Lifelong testicular differentiation in Pleurodeles waltl (Amphibia, Caudata)

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Development and Evaluation of a Psychosocial Intervention for Children and Teenagers Experiencing Diabetes (DEPICTED): a protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial of the effectiveness of a communication skills training programme for healthcare professionals working with young people with type 1 diabetes

Background Diabetes is the third most common chronic condition in childhood and poor glycaemic control leads to serious short-term and life-limiting long-term complications. In addition to optimal medical management, it is widely recognised that psychosocial and educational factors play a key role in improving outcomes for young people with diabetes. Recent systematic reviews of psycho-educational interventions recognise the need for new methods to be developed in consultation with key stakeholders including patients, their families and the multidisciplinary diabetes healthcare team. Methods/design Following a development phase involving key stakeholders, a psychosocial intervention for use by paediatric diabetes staff and not requiring input from trained psychologists has been developed, incorporating a communication skills training programme for health professionals and a shared agenda-setting tool. The effectiveness of the intervention will be evaluated in a cluster-randomised controlled trial (RCT). The primary outcome, to be measured in children aged 4-15 years diagnosed with type 1 diabetes for at least one year, is the effect on glycaemic control (HbA1c) during the year after training of the healthcare team is completed. Secondary outcomes include quality of life for patients and carers and cost-effectiveness. Patient and carer preferences for service delivery will also be assessed. Twenty-six paediatric diabetes teams are participating in the trial, recruiting a total of 700 patients for evaluation of outcome measures. Half the participating teams will be randomised to receive the intervention at the beginning of the trial and remaining centres offered the training package at the end of the one year trial period. Discussion The primary aim of the trial is to determine whether a communication skills training intervention for specialist paediatric diabetes teams will improve clinical and psychological outcomes for young people with type 1 diabetes. Previous research indicates the effectiveness of specialist psychological interventions in achieving sustained improvements in glycaemic control. This trial will evaluate an intervention which does not require the involvement of trained psychologists, maximising the potential feasibility of delivery in a wider NHS context. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN61568050

Effectiveness of informational decision aids and a live donor financial assistance program on pursuit of live kidney transplants in African American hemodialysis patients

Abstract Background African Americans have persistently poor access to living donor kidney transplants (LDKT). We conducted a small randomized trial to provide preliminary evidence of the effect of informational decision support and donor financial assistance interventions on African American hemodialysis patients’ pursuit of LDKT. Methods Study participants were randomly assigned to receive (1) Usual Care; (2) the Providing Resources to Enhance African American Patients’ Readiness to Make Decisions about Kidney Disease (PREPARED); or (3) PREPARED plus a living kidney donor financial assistance program. Our primary outcome was patients’ actions to pursue LDKT (discussions with family, friends, or doctor; initiation or completion of the recipient LDKT medical evaluation; or identification of a donor). We also measured participants’ attitudes, concerns, and perceptions of interventions’ usefulness. Results Of 329 screened, 92 patients were eligible and randomized to Usual Care (n = 31), PREPARED (n = 30), or PREPARED plus financial assistance (n = 31). Most participants reported interventions helped their decision making about renal replacement treatments (62%). However there were no statistically significant improvements in LDKT actions among groups over 6 months. Further, no participants utilized the living donor financial assistance benefit. Conclusions Findings suggest these interventions may need to be paired with personal support or navigation services to overcome key communication, logistical, and financial barriers to LDKT. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov [ NCT01439516 ] [August 31, 2011].https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/143512/1/12882_2018_Article_901.pd

The hormonal control of ejaculation

Hormones regulate all aspects of male reproduction, from sperm production to sexual drive. Although emerging evidence from animal models and small clinical studies in humans clearly point to a role for several hormones in controlling the ejaculatory process, the exact endocrine mechanisms are unclear. Evidence shows that oxytocin is actively involved in regulating orgasm and ejaculation via peripheral, central and spinal mechanisms. Associations between delayed and premature ejaculation with hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism, respectively, have also been extensively documented. Some models suggest that glucocorticoids are involved in the regulation of the ejaculatory reflex, but corresponding data from human studies are scant. Oestrogens regulate epididymal motility, whereas testosterone can affect the central and peripheral aspects of the ejaculatory process. Overall, the data of the endocrine system in regulating the ejaculatory reflex suggest that widely available endocrine therapies might be effective in treating sexual disorders in these men. Indeed, substantial evidence has documented that treatments of thyroid diseases are able to improve some ejaculatory difficulties