Global Climate Policy Scenarios for 2030 and beyond - Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Pathway Scenarios with the POLES and GEM-E3 Models

The European Union is committed to limiting the global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius by the year 2100. In 2007, the European Commission published a Communication on 'Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius: the way ahead for 2020 and beyond', which explores ways for meeting this target. The Communication drew on scenarios developed by the Joint Research Centre IPTS. These scenarios and the underlying model toolbox are presented in this report. The report shows that a baseline development would lead to a continuous rise in global greenhouse gas emissions. If dedicated climate change policies and energy efficiency standards were introduced, global greenhouse gas emissions from energy use and industrial processes could be reduced to reach a level of 25% below that of 1990. The 'GHG reduction scenario' takes a novel ¿ yet realistic ¿ approach by simulating an imperfect carbon market across sectors and regions. Reaching the 2 degree target pathway is feasible under these assumptions. One key element for achieving it would be energy savings and changes in the power sector. Furthermore, the use of 'flexible mechanisms' is found to be central for limiting the cost of an ambitious climate change policy.JRC.J.2-Competitiveness and Sustainabilit

Economic Assessment of Post-2012 Global Climate Policies - Analysis of Gas Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Scenarios with the POLES and GEM-E3 models

This report documents the JRC/IPTS modelling activities of the 2009 European Commission Communication "Towards a comprehensive climate change agreement in Copenhagen", which establishes the EU's position in the Copenhagen negotiations. According to the POLES model, the estimated global direct abatement costs of an emission reduction scenario compatible with the EU 2 degrees target are ¿175 billion by 2020. The report also highlights the crucial importance of energy efficiency improvements in achieving the overall emission reduction targets. Finally, the analyses with the POLES and GEM-E3 models underline the fundamental role that a global carbon market can play in implementing climate policies in a cost-efficient way.JRC.J.2-Competitiveness and Sustainabilit

POLES-JRC model documentation

This report is a public manual of the POLES-JRC model, the in-house tool of the European Commission for global and long-term analysis of GHG mitigation policies and evolution of energy markets. The model includes a comprehensive description of the energy system and related GHG emissions for a large set of significant economies and residual regions, covering the World and including international bunkers. Through linkage with specialized tools it also provides a full coverage of GHG emissions, including from land use and agriculture, as well as of air pollutants emissions. The POLES-JRC model builds on years of development of the POLES model while adding specific features developed internally to the JRC. The model version presented in this report is used in particular to produce the JRC Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO) series.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

POTEnCIA model description - version 0.9

This report lays out the modelling approach that is implemented in the POTEnCIA modelling tool (Policy Oriented Tool for Energy and Climate Change Impact Assessment) and describes its analytical capabilities. POTEnCIA is a modelling tool for the EU energy system that follows a hybrid partial equilibrium approach. It combines behavioural decisions with detailed techno-economic data, therefore allowing for an analysis of both technology-oriented policies and of those addressing behavioural change. Special features and mechanisms are introduced in POTEnCIA in order to appropriately reflect the implications of an uptake of novel energy technologies and of changing market structures, allowing for the robust assessment of ambitious policy futures for the EU energy system. The model runs on an annual basis with a typical projection timeline to 2050.JRC.J.1-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Combined Climate Change and Air Pollution Policy Scenarios

This report describes an assessment of the co-benefits for air pollution of recently developed climate mitigation scenarios that inform the European Union policy making. The climate mitigation scenarios were obtained with the POLES equilibrium model for a business-as-usual and greenhouse gas reduction case. In the present work, these scenarios were expanded to air pollution emissions. The resulting set of global -spatially and sector disaggregated- air pollution emissions were evaluated with the global chemistry transport model TM5, to calculate levels of particulate matter and ozone. Subsequently, air pollution impacts on human health, ecosystems and climate were evaluated. The resulting set of four scenarios thus reflect various combinations of worldwide air pollution and climate policies: BAU (¿no further climate and air pollution policies since the 2000 base-year¿); CARB (¿climate policy only¿), BAP (¿no further climate policy, but progressive air pollution policies, to address worldwide increasing levels of air pollution) and CAP (¿combination of ambitious climate and air pollution policies¿). The implementation of a global climate policy (CARB) has substantial co-benefits for reducing air pollutant emissions. Compared to BAU, in 2050 global emissions of SO2 are reduced by ca. 75 %, NOx by 55 %, CO (40 %) and other pollutants VOC, OC and BC) about 25% %. These emission reductions result from cleaner technologies and decreased fuel demand, and correspond to a CO2 emission reduction of more than 60 %. Advanced air pollution abatement technologies can obtain similar air pollutant reductions ranging between 35 % (NOx), 45 % (OC, BC), 60 % (SO2) and 70% (CO), however in this case the CO2 emissions reach unabated levels of 55 Pg CO2/yr. The combined air pollution and climate policy case (CAP) further reduces BAP air pollution emissions by 10-30 %. Noticeable are the decreases of methane emissions by ca. 60 %, which have important impacts on ozone air quality and climate. The environmental benefits of the emission reductions are substantial. In 2050, average global life expectancy increases by 3.2 months/person for BAP (compared to BAU) and further increases by 3.7 to 6.9 months/person if additionally climate policies are introduced (CAP). Compared to 2000, only the CAP scenario leads to global improvement of life-expectancy (by about 3 months/person), while all other scenarios lead to higher particulate concentration and lower life expectancies, mainly driven by pollution developments in South and East Asia. These improvements in CAP are due to decreasing concentrations of primary (OC, BC) and secondary (SO4, NO3) aerosol. This work shows that combining air pollution and climate policies is in some regions the only way to stabilize or decrease the levels of air pollution and reducing impacts on human health. The global average life expectancy, however, masks large regional differences: e.g. current and future levels of air pollution in Asia are much larger than in Europe or the United States. Crop losses due to ozone are reduced by 4.7 % by implementing progressive air pollution policies, and could be reduced by another 2 %, by introducing additional climate policies. Climate policies target at limiting long-term (2100) climate change. On the intermediate time-scales (2030-2050), however, there might be important trade-offs to be considered in climate and air pollution policies, since reducing particulate matter and precursor (especially sulfur) emissions, are likely to lead to a net positive radiative forcing and a warming of climate. Since reductions of particulate matter and ozone are necessary to protect human health and vegetation, combined air pollution and climate policies are more beneficial for both climate and air pollution than stand-alone policies. There is scope to preferentially mitigate emissions of Black Carbon and methane, which is beneficial for climate and human health.JRC.DDG.H.2-Climate chang

Technology Learning Curves for Energy Policy Support

The European Commission's Joint Research Centre and the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) organised an expert workshop on 'Learning Curves for Policy Support' in Amsterdam on 8 March 2012. It aimed to assess the challenges in the application of the two-factor learning curve, or alternative solutions in supporting policy decision making in the framework of the European Strategic Energy Technology Plan, and explored options for improvement. The workshop gathered distinguished experts in the field of scientific research on learning curves and policy researchers from the European Commission and ECN to assess the challenges in the application of the two-factor-learning curve, or alternative solutions in supporting policy decision making, and to provide options for improvement. This paper forms the summary of outcomes from the workshop. Due to the very different nature of the One-Factor-Learning concept and the Two-Factor-Learning concept, these are discussed in separate parts. In each of these parts the context and the methodology are introduced, methodological and data challenges are described and the problems associated with the application of the concept in models is discussed.JRC.F.6-Energy systems evaluatio

TMEM45A, SERPINB5 and p16INK4A transcript levels are predictive for development of high-grade cervical lesions

Women persistently infected with human papillomavirus (HPV) type 16 are at high risk for development of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cervical cancer (CIN3+). We aimed to identify biomarkers for progression to CIN3+ in women with persistent HPV16 infection. In this prospective study, 11,088 women aged 20-29 years were enrolled during 1991-1993, and re-invited for a second visit two years later. Cervical cytology samples obtained at both visits were tested for HPV DNA by Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2), and HC2-positive samples were genotyped by INNO-LiPA. The cohort was followed for up to 19 years via a national pathology register. To identify markers for progression to CIN3+, we performed microarray analysis on RNA extracted from cervical swabs of 30 women with persistent HPV16-infection and 11 HPV-negative women. Six genes were selected and validated by quantitative PCR. Three genes were subsequently validated within a different and large group of women from the same cohort. Secondly, Kaplan-Meier and Cox-regression analyses were used to investigate whether expression levels of those three genes predict progression to CIN3+. We found that high transcript levels of TMEM45A, SERPINB5 and p16INK4a at baseline were associated with increased risk of CIN3+ during follow-up. The hazard ratios of CIN3+ per 10-fold increase in baseline expression level were 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1-2.3) for TMEM45A, 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1-2.5) for p16INK4a, and 1.8 (95% CI: 1.2-2.7) for SERPINB5. In conclusion, high mRNA expression levels of TMEM45A, SERPINB5 and p16INK4a were associated with increased risk of CIN3+ in persistently HPV16-infected women

POLES-JRC model documentation

This report is a public manual of the POLES-JRC model, the in-house tool of the European Commission for global and long-term analysis of GHG mitigation policies and evolution of energy markets. The model includes a comprehensive description of the energy system and related GHG emissions for a large set of significant economies and residual regions, covering the World and including international bunkers. Through linkage with specialized tools it also provides a full coverage of GHG emissions, including from land use and agriculture, as well as of air pollutants emissions. The POLES-JRC model builds on years of development of the POLES model (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) while adding specific features developed internally to the JRC. Latest modelling upgrades - compared to the 2017 edition of the model documentation - include final energy demand, electricity production, the role of hydrogen as an energy vector, the oil, gas and coal international markets and GHG emission projections. This document presents the Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems (POLES) model of the Joint Research Centre, as used in the 2018 edition of the Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO).JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

HMDB: the Human Metabolome Database

The Human Metabolome Database (HMDB) is currently the most complete and comprehensive curated collection of human metabolite and human metabolism data in the world. It contains records for more than 2180 endogenous metabolites with information gathered from thousands of books, journal articles and electronic databases. In addition to its comprehensive literature-derived data, the HMDB also contains an extensive collection of experimental metabolite concentration data compiled from hundreds of mass spectra (MS) and Nuclear Magnetic resonance (NMR) metabolomic analyses performed on urine, blood and cerebrospinal fluid samples. This is further supplemented with thousands of NMR and MS spectra collected on purified, reference metabolites. Each metabolite entry in the HMDB contains an average of 90 separate data fields including a comprehensive compound description, names and synonyms, structural information, physico-chemical data, reference NMR and MS spectra, biofluid concentrations, disease associations, pathway information, enzyme data, gene sequence data, SNP and mutation data as well as extensive links to images, references and other public databases. Extensive searching, relational querying and data browsing tools are also provided. The HMDB is designed to address the broad needs of biochemists, clinical chemists, physicians, medical geneticists, nutritionists and members of the metabolomics community. The HMDB is available at

The Long-Baseline Neutrino Experiment: Exploring Fundamental Symmetries of the Universe

The preponderance of matter over antimatter in the early Universe, the dynamics of the supernova bursts that produced the heavy elements necessary for life and whether protons eventually decay --- these mysteries at the forefront of particle physics and astrophysics are key to understanding the early evolution of our Universe, its current state and its eventual fate. The Long-Baseline Neutrino Experiment (LBNE) represents an extensively developed plan for a world-class experiment dedicated to addressing these questions. LBNE is conceived around three central components: (1) a new, high-intensity neutrino source generated from a megawatt-class proton accelerator at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, (2) a near neutrino detector just downstream of the source, and (3) a massive liquid argon time-projection chamber deployed as a far detector deep underground at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. This facility, located at the site of the former Homestake Mine in Lead, South Dakota, is approximately 1,300 km from the neutrino source at Fermilab -- a distance (baseline) that delivers optimal sensitivity to neutrino charge-parity symmetry violation and mass ordering effects. This ambitious yet cost-effective design incorporates scalability and flexibility and can accommodate a variety of upgrades and contributions. With its exceptional combination of experimental configuration, technical capabilities, and potential for transformative discoveries, LBNE promises to be a vital facility for the field of particle physics worldwide, providing physicists from around the globe with opportunities to collaborate in a twenty to thirty year program of exciting science. In this document we provide a comprehensive overview of LBNE's scientific objectives, its place in the landscape of neutrino physics worldwide, the technologies it will incorporate and the capabilities it will possess.Comment: Major update of previous version. This is the reference document for LBNE science program and current status. Chapters 1, 3, and 9 provide a comprehensive overview of LBNE's scientific objectives, its place in the landscape of neutrino physics worldwide, the technologies it will incorporate and the capabilities it will possess. 288 pages, 116 figure