Comparison of alternative risk adjustment measures for predictive modeling: high risk patient case finding using Taiwan's National Health Insurance claims

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Predictive modeling presents an opportunity to contain the expansion of medical expenditures by focusing on very few people. Evaluation of how risk adjustment models perform in predictive modeling in Taiwan or Asia has been rare. The aims of this study were to evaluate the performance of different risk adjustment models (the ACG risk adjustment system and prior expenditures) in predictive modeling, using Taiwan's National Health Insurance (NHI) claims data, and to compare characteristics of potentially high-expenditure subjects identified through different models.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A random sample of NHI enrollees continuously enrolled in 2002 and 2003 (n = 164,562) was selected. Health status measures and total expenditures derived from 2002 NHI claims data were used to predict the possibility of becoming 2003 top users. Statistics-based indicators (C-statistics, sensitivity, & Predictive Positive Value) and characteristics of identified top groups by different models (expenditures and prevalence of manageable diseases) were presented.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Both diagnosis-based and prior expenditures models performed much better than the demographic model. Diagnosis-based models were better in identifying top users with manageable diseases; prior expenditures models were better in statistics-based indicators and identifying people with higher average expenditures. Prior expenditures status could correctly identify more actual top users than diagnosis-based or demographic models. The proportions of actual top users that could be identified by diagnosis-based models alone were much lower than that identified by prior expenditures status.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Predicted top users identified by different models have different characteristics and there is little agreement between modes regarding which groups would be potentially top users; therefore, which model to use should depend on the purpose of predictive modeling. Prior expenditures are a more powerful tool than diagnosis-based risk adjusters in terms of correctly identifying more actual high expenditures users. There is still much room left for improvement of diagnosis-based models in predictive modeling.</p

Quantifying morbidities by Adjusted Clinical Group system for a Taiwan population: A nationwide analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Adjusted Clinical Group (ACG) system has been used in measuring an individual's and a population's morbidities. Although all required inputs for running the ACG system are readily available, patients' morbidities and their associations to health care utilizations have been rarely studied in Taiwan. Therefore, the objective of this study was using the ACG system to quantify morbidities for Taiwanese population and to examine their relationship to ambulatory utilizations and costs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This secondary analysis examined claims data for ambulatory services provided to 2.71 million representative Taiwanese in 2002 and 2003. People were grouped by the ACG system according to age, gender, and all ambulatory diagnosis codes in a given year. The software collapses the full set of ACGs into six morbidity categories (Non-users, Healthy, Low-morbidity, Moderate-, High- and Very-high) termed Resource Utilization Bands (RUBs). Each ACG was assigned a relative weight (RW), which was calculated as the ratio of mean ambulatory cost for each ACG to that for the overall. The distribution of morbidities was compared between years 2002 and 2003. The consistency of the distributions of visits, costs, and RWs of each ACG were examined for a two-year period. The relationship between people's morbidities and their ambulatory utilizations and costs was assessed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Ninety-eight percent of the subjects were correctly assigned to ACGs. Except for non-users (7.9 ~ 8.3%), most subjects were assigned to ACGs of acute and minor diseases and ACGs of moderate-to-high-morbid chronic diseases. The distributions of ACG-based morbidities were highly consistent (r = 0.949, <it>p < 0.001</it>) between 2002 and 2003. The ACG-specific visits (r = 0.955, <it>p < 0.001</it>), costs (r = 0.966, <it>p < 0.001</it>) and RWs (r = 0.991, <it>p < 0.001</it>) were correlated across two years. People grouped to the high-morbid ACGs had more visits and costs than those grouped to the low-morbid ACGs. Forty-six percent of the total ambulatory costs were spent by eighteen percent of the population, who were grouped to the High- and Very-high-morbidity RUBs.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study demonstrated the feasibility, validity, and reliability of using the ACG system to measure morbidities in a Taiwan population and to explain their associations with ambulatory utilizations and costs for the whole country.</p

Deletion of the gabra2 gene results in hypersensitivity to the acute effects of ethanol but does not alter ethanol self administration

Human genetic studies have suggested that polymorphisms of the GABRA2 gene encoding the GABA(A) α2-subunit are associated with ethanol dependence. Variations in this gene also convey sensitivity to the subjective effects of ethanol, indicating a role in mediating ethanol-related behaviours. We therefore investigated the consequences of deleting the α2-subunit on the ataxic and rewarding properties of ethanol in mice. Ataxic and sedative effects of ethanol were explored in GABA(A) α2-subunit wildtype (WT) and knockout (KO) mice using a Rotarod apparatus, wire hang and the duration of loss of righting reflex. Following training, KO mice showed shorter latencies to fall than WT littermates under ethanol (2 g/kg i.p.) in both Rotarod and wire hang tests. After administration of ethanol (3.5 g/kg i.p.), KO mice took longer to regain the righting reflex than WT mice. To ensure the acute effects are not due to the gabra2 deletion affecting pharmacokinetics, blood ethanol concentrations were measured at 20 minute intervals after acute administration (2 g/kg i.p.), and did not differ between genotypes. To investigate ethanol's rewarding properties, WT and KO mice were trained to lever press to receive increasing concentrations of ethanol on an FR4 schedule of reinforcement. Both WT and KO mice self-administered ethanol at similar rates, with no differences in the numbers of reinforcers earned. These data indicate a protective role for α2-subunits, against the acute sedative and ataxic effects of ethanol. However, no change was observed in ethanol self administration, suggesting the rewarding effects of ethanol remain unchange

Tyrosine hydroxylase activity in the endocrine pancreas: changes induced by short-term dietary manipulation

BACKGROUND: Tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) activity and its possible participation in the control of insulin secretion were studied in pancreatic islets of adult Wistar rats fed a standard commercial diet (SD) or carbohydrates alone (CHD) for one week. TH activity, norepinephrine (NE) content, and glucose-induced insulin secretion were assessed. Blood glucose and insulin levels were measured at the time of sacrifice. RESULTS: CHD rats had significantly higher blood glucose and lower insulin levels than SD rats (114.5 ± 6.7 vs 80.7 ± 7.25 mg/dl, p < 0.001; 20.25 ± 2.45 vs 42.5 ± 4.99 μU/ml, p < 0.01, respectively). Whereas TH activity was significantly higher in CHD isolated islets (600 ± 60 vs 330 ± 40 pmol/mg protein/h; p < 0.001), NE content was significantly lower (18 ± 1 vs 31 ± 5 pmol/mg protein), suggesting that TH activity would be inhibited by the end-products of catecholamines (CAs) biosynthetic pathway. A similar TH activity was found in control and solarectomized rats (330 ± 40 vs 300 ± 80 pmol/mg protein/h), suggesting an endogenous rather than a neural origin of TH activity. CHD islets released significantly less insulin in response to glucose than SD islets (7.4 ± 0.9 vs 11.4 ± 1.1 ng/islet/h; p < 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: TH activity is present in islet cells; dietary manipulation simultaneously induces an increase in this activity together with a decrease in glucose-induced insulin secretion in rat islets. TH activity – and the consequent endogenous CAs turnover – would participate in the paracrine control of insulin secretion

Applying diagnosis and pharmacy-based risk models to predict pharmacy use in Aragon, Spain: The impact of a local calibration

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the financing of a national health system, where pharmaceutical spending is one of the main cost containment targets, predicting pharmacy costs for individuals and populations is essential for budget planning and care management. Although most efforts have focused on risk adjustment applying diagnostic data, the reliability of this information source has been questioned in the primary care setting. We sought to assess the usefulness of incorporating pharmacy data into claims-based predictive models (PMs). Developed primarily for the U.S. health care setting, a secondary objective was to evaluate the benefit of a local calibration in order to adapt the PMs to the Spanish health care system.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The population was drawn from patients within the primary care setting of Aragon, Spain (n = 84,152). Diagnostic, medication and prior cost data were used to develop PMs based on the Johns Hopkins ACG methodology. Model performance was assessed through r-squared statistics and predictive ratios. The capacity to identify future high-cost patients was examined through c-statistic, sensitivity and specificity parameters.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The PMs based on pharmacy data had a higher capacity to predict future pharmacy expenses and to identify potential high-cost patients than the models based on diagnostic data alone and a capacity almost as high as that of the combined diagnosis-pharmacy-based PM. PMs provided considerably better predictions when calibrated to Spanish data.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Understandably, pharmacy spending is more predictable using pharmacy-based risk markers compared with diagnosis-based risk markers. Pharmacy-based PMs can assist plan administrators and medical directors in planning the health budget and identifying high-cost-risk patients amenable to care management programs.</p

Comparison of Rx-defined morbidity groups and diagnosis- based risk adjusters for predicting healthcare costs in Taiwan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Medication claims are commonly used to calculate the risk adjustment for measuring healthcare cost. The Rx-defined Morbidity Groups (Rx-MG) which combine the use of medication to indicate morbidity have been incorporated into the Adjusted Clinical Groups (ACG) Case Mix System, developed by the Johns Hopkins University. This study aims to verify that the Rx-MG can be used for adjusting risk and for explaining the variations in the healthcare cost in Taiwan.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2005 (LHID2005) was used in this study. The year 2006 was chosen as the baseline to predict healthcare cost (medication and total cost) in 2007. The final sample size amounted to 793 239 (81%) enrolees, and excluded any cases with discontinued enrolment. Two different kinds of models were built to predict cost: the concurrent model and the prospective model. The predictors used in the predictive models included age, gender, Aggregated Diagnosis Groups (ADG, diagnosis- defined morbidity groups), and Rx-defined Morbidity Groups. Multivariate OLS regression was used in the cost prediction modelling.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The concurrent model adjusted for Rx-defined Morbidity Groups for total cost, and controlled for age and gender had a better predictive R-square = 0.618, compared to the model adjusted for ADGs (R²= 0.411). The model combined with Rx-MGs and ADGs performed the best for concurrently predicting total cost (R²= 0.650). For prospectively predicting total cost, the model combined Rx-MGs and ADGs (R²= 0.382) performed better than the models adjusted by Rx-MGs (R²= 0.360) or ADGs (R²= 0.252) only. Similarly, the concurrent model adjusted for Rx-MGs predicting pharmacy cost had a better performance (R-square = 0.615), than the model adjusted for ADGs (R²= 0.431). The model combined with Rx-MGs and ADGs performed the best in concurrently as well as prospectively predicting pharmacy cost (R²= 0.638 and 0.505, respectively). The prospective models showed a remarkable improvement when adjusted by prior cost.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The medication-based Rx-Defined Morbidity Groups was useful in predicting pharmacy cost as well as total cost in Taiwan. Combining the information on medication and diagnosis as adjusters could arguably be the best method for explaining variations in healthcare cost.</p

A review of elliptical and disc galaxy structure, and modern scaling laws

A century ago, in 1911 and 1913, Plummer and then Reynolds introduced their models to describe the radial distribution of stars in `nebulae'. This article reviews the progress since then, providing both an historical perspective and a contemporary review of the stellar structure of bulges, discs and elliptical galaxies. The quantification of galaxy nuclei, such as central mass deficits and excess nuclear light, plus the structure of dark matter halos and cD galaxy envelopes, are discussed. Issues pertaining to spiral galaxies including dust, bulge-to-disc ratios, bulgeless galaxies, bars and the identification of pseudobulges are also reviewed. An array of modern scaling relations involving sizes, luminosities, surface brightnesses and stellar concentrations are presented, many of which are shown to be curved. These 'redshift zero' relations not only quantify the behavior and nature of galaxies in the Universe today, but are the modern benchmark for evolutionary studies of galaxies, whether based on observations, N-body-simulations or semi-analytical modelling. For example, it is shown that some of the recently discovered compact elliptical galaxies at 1.5 < z < 2.5 may be the bulges of modern disc galaxies.Comment: Condensed version (due to Contract) of an invited review article to appear in "Planets, Stars and Stellar Systems"(www.springer.com/astronomy/book/978-90-481-8818-5). 500+ references incl. many somewhat forgotten, pioneer papers. Original submission to Springer: 07-June-201

Relationship between efficiency and clinical effectiveness indicators in an adjusted model of resource consumption : a cross-sectional study

Background: Adjusted clinical groups (ACG®) have been widely used to adjust resource distribution; however, the relationship with effectiveness has been questioned. The purpose of the study was to measure the relationship between efficiency assessed by ACG® and a clinical effectiveness indicator in adults attended in Primary Health Care Centres (PHCs). Methods: Research design: cross-sectional study. Subjects: 196, 593 patients aged >14 years in 13 PHCs in Catalonia (Spain). Measures: Age, sex, PHC, basic care team (BCT), visits, episodes (diagnoses), and total direct costs of PHC care and co-morbidity as measured by ACG® indicators: Efficiency indices for costs, visits, and episodes (costs EI, visits EI, episodes EI); a complexity or risk index (RI); and effectiveness measured by a general synthetic index (SI). The relationship between EI, RI, and SI in each PHC and BCT was measured by multiple correlation coefficients (r). Results: In total, 56 of the 106 defined ACG® were present in the study population, with five corresponding to 44.5% of the patients, 11 to 68.0% of patients, and 30 present in less than 0.5% of the sample. The RI in each PHC ranged from 0.9 to 1.1. Costs, visits, and episodes had similar trends for efficiency in six PHCs. There was moderate correlation between costs EI and visits EI (r = 0.59). SI correlation with episodes EI and costs EI was moderate (r = 0.48 and r = −0.34, respectively) and was r = −0.14 for visits EI. Correlation between RI and SI was r = 0.29. Conclusions: The Efficiency and Effectiveness ACG® indicators permit a comparison of primary care processes between PHCs. Acceptable correlation exists between effectiveness and indicators of efficiency in episodes and costs

Stimulation of Midbrain Dopaminergic Structures Modifies Firing Rates of Rat Lateral Habenula Neurons

Ventral tegmental area (VTA) and substantia nigra pars compacta (SNpc) are midbrain structures known to be involved in mediating reward in rodents. Lateral habenula (LHb) is considered as a negative reward source and it is reported that stimulation of the LHb rapidly induces inhibition of firing in midbrain dopamine neurons. Interestingly, the phasic fall in LHb neuronal activity may follow the excitation of dopamine neurons in response to reward-predicting stimuli. The VTA and SNpc give rise to dopaminergic projections that innervate the LHb, which is also known to be involved in processing painful stimuli. But it's unclear what physiological effects these inputs have on habenular function. In this study we distinguished the LHb pain-activated neurons of the Wistar rats and assessed their electrophysiological responsiveness to the stimulation of the VTA and SNpc with either single-pulse stimulation (300 µA, 0.5 Hz) or tetanic stimulation (80 µA, 25 Hz). Single-pulse stimulation that was delivered to either midbrain structure triggered transient inhibition of firing of ∼90% of the LHb pain-activated neurons. However, tetanic stimulation of the VTA tended to evoke an elevation in neuronal firing rate. We conclude that LHb pain-activated neurons can receive diverse reward-related signals originating from midbrain dopaminergic structures, and thus participate in the regulation of the brain reward system via both positive and negative feedback mechanisms