On the state dependency of the equilibrium climate sensitivity during the last 5 million years

It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing – the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S – depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6–5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large

Vertical Extension of the Subglacial Drainage System into Basal Crevasses

Water plays a first-order role in basal sliding of glaciers and ice sheets and is often a key constituent of accelerated glacier motion1, 2, 3, 4. Subglacial water is known to occupy systems of cavities and conduits at the interface between ice and the underlying bed surface, depending upon the history of water input and the characteristics of the substrate5. Full understanding of the extent and configuration of basal water is lacking, however, because direct observation is difficult. This limits our ability to simulate ice dynamics and the subsequent impacts on sea-level rise realistically. Here we show that the subglacial hydrological system can have a large volume of water occupying basal crevasses that extend upward from the bed into the overlying ice. Radar and seismic imaging combined with in situ borehole measurements collected on Bench Glacier, Alaska, reveal numerous water-filled basal crevasses with highly transmissive connections to the bed. Some crevasses extend many tens of metres above the bed and together they hold a volume of water equivalent to at least a decimetre layer covering the bed. Our results demonstrate that the basal hydrologic system can extend high into the overlying ice mass, where basal crevasses increase water-storage capacity and could potentially modulate basal water pressure. Because basal crevasses can form under commonly observed glaciological conditions, our findings have implications for interpreting and modelling subglacial hydrologic processes and related sliding accelerations of glaciers and ice sheets

A review of recent developments in climate change science. Part I: Understanding of future change in the large-scale climate system

This article reviews some of the major lines of recent scientific progress relevant to the choice of global climate policy targets, focusing on changes in understanding since publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4). Developments are highlighted in the following major climate system components: ice sheets; sea ice; the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; tropical forests; and accelerated carbon release from permafrost and ocean hydrates. The most significant developments in each component are identified by synthesizing input from multiple experts from each field. Overall, while large uncertainties remain in all fields, some substantial progress in understanding is revealed