Synoptic preconditions for extreme flooding during the summer Asian Monsoon in the Mumbai area

The summer monsoon season is an important hydrometeorological feature of the Indian subcontinent and it has significant socioeconomic impacts. This study is aimed at understanding the processes associated with the occurrence of catastrophic flood events. The study has two novel features that add to the existing body of knowledge about the South Asian Monsoon: 1) combine traditional hydrometeorological observations (rain gauge measurements) with unconventional data (media and state historical records of reported flooding) to produce value-added century-long time-series of potential flood events, and 2) identify the larger regional synoptic conditions leading to days with flood potential in the time-series. The promise of mining unconventional data to extend hydrometeorological records is demonstrated in this study. The synoptic evolution of flooding events in the western-central coast of India and the densely populated Mumbai area are shown to correspond to active monsoon periods with embedded low-pressure centers and have far upstream influence from the western edge of the Indian Ocean basin. The coastal processes along the Arabian Peninsula where the currents interact with the continental shelf are found to be key features of extremes during the South Asian Monsoo

Estimation of percentage body fat in 6- to 13-year-old children by skinfold thickness, body mass index and waist circumference

We evaluated the accuracy of skinfold thicknesses, BMI and waist circumference for the prediction of percentage body fat (PBF) in a representative sample of 372 Swiss children aged 6-13 years. PBF was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. On the basis of a preliminary bootstrap selection of predictors, seven regression models were evaluated. All models included sex, age and pubertal stage plus one of the following predictors: (1) log-transformed triceps skinfold (logTSF); (2) logTSF and waist circumference; (3) log-transformed sum of triceps and subscapular skinfolds (logSF2); (4) log-transformed sum of triceps, biceps, subscapular and supra-iliac skinfolds (logSF4); (5) BMI; (6) waist circumference; (7) BMI and waist circumference. The adjusted determination coefficient (R _{adj}^{2} ) and the root mean squared error (RMSE; kg) were calculated for each model. LogSF4 (R _{adj}^{2} 0·85; RMSE 2·35) and logSF2 (R _{adj}^{2} 0·82; RMSE 2·54) were similarly accurate at predicting PBF and superior to logTSF (R _{adj}^{2} 0·75; RMSE 3·02), logTSF combined with waist circumference (R _{adj}^{2} 0·78; RMSE 2·85), BMI (R _{adj}^{2} 0·62; RMSE 3·73), waist circumference (R _{adj}^{2} 0·58; RMSE 3·89), and BMI combined with waist circumference (R _{adj}^{2} 0·63; RMSE 3·66) (P<0·001 for all values of R _{adj}^{2} ). The finding that logSF4 was only modestly superior to logSF2 and that logTSF was better than BMI and waist circumference at predicting PBF has important implications for paediatric epidemiological studies aimed at disentangling the effect of body fat on health outcome

Remote Sensing-Based Methodology for the Quick Update of the Assessment of the Population Exposed to Natural Hazards

The assessment of the number of people exposed to natural hazards, especially in countries with strong urban growth, is difficult to be updated at the same rate as land use develops. This paper presents a remote sensing-based procedure for quickly updating the assessment of the population exposed to natural hazards. A relationship between satellite nightlights intensity and urbanization density from global available cartography is first assessed when all data are available. This is used to extrapolate urbanization data at different time steps, updating exposure each time new nightlights intensity maps are available. To test the reliability of the proposed methodology, the number of people exposed to riverine flood in Italy is assessed, deriving a probabilistic relationship between DMSP nightlights intensity and urbanization density from the GUF database for the year 2011. People exposed to riverine flood are assessed crossing the population distributed on the derived urbanization density with flood hazard zones provided by ISPRA. The validation against reliable exposures derived from ISTAT data shows good agreement. The possibility to update exposure maps with a higher refresh rate makes this approach particularly suitable for applications in developing countries, where urbanization and population densities may change at a sub-yearly time scale

Measurement of the cosmic ray spectrum above 4×10184{\times}10^{18} eV using inclined events detected with the Pierre Auger Observatory

A measurement of the cosmic-ray spectrum for energies exceeding $4{\times}10^{18}$ eV is presented, which is based on the analysis of showers with zenith angles greater than $60^{\circ}$ detected with the Pierre Auger Observatory between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2013. The measured spectrum confirms a flux suppression at the highest energies. Above $5.3{\times}10^{18}$ eV, the "ankle", the flux can be described by a power law $E^{-\gamma}$ with index $\gamma=2.70 \pm 0.02 \,\text{(stat)} \pm 0.1\,\text{(sys)}$ followed by a smooth suppression region. For the energy ($E_\text{s}$) at which the spectral flux has fallen to one-half of its extrapolated value in the absence of suppression, we find $E_\text{s}=(5.12\pm0.25\,\text{(stat)}^{+1.0}_{-1.2}\,\text{(sys)}){\times}10^{19}$ eV.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Engaging Students in the Basic Course By Asking Big Questions

This paper advocates for the inclusion of big questions into the basic course curriculum. It begins by exploring the nature of big questions as those that engage pressing and perennial civic and global issues, and details their effectiveness in encouraging students and faculty to think about interpersonal responsibility and social space as dynamically interfacing and mutually reflexive, thus challenging us to negotiate the civic call of engaging in democratic processes. The basic course, whether public speaking or hybrid, offers a crucial opportunity for big questions to emerge because it brings people together to critically question and produce messages about the social and civic contexts in which we all engage as students, faculty, employees, family, and citizens. Thus, the article includes examples from several basic course instructors and administrators of how big questions can be incorporated into the curriculum to enhance the learning outcomes of students, while at the same time situating the basic course as more deeply embedded into the stated mission and requirements of our departments, colleges, and general education programs

Research inventory of child health: A report on roadmaps for the future of child health research in Europe

RICHE was the response to a call under HEALTH-2009-3.3-5, with the title of 'European child health research platform'. The call text asked us to “address the diversity and fragmentation in child health research in Europe in an inclusive multidisciplinary way, identifying existing research programmes in Member States, recent advances and identification of gaps to explore road maps for the future of child health research in Europe”. Project structure A consortium, with a final total of 23 partners, and two associate (i.e. unfunded) partners, responded to this call. We designed a project with a linear structure, where the main focus of activity moved from work on the Inventory, and Indicators and Measurement, in Year 1, to work on Gaps in Year 2, finishing with the preparation of the Roadmap in year 3. The final 6 months (Year 4) were largely dissemination. The Platform, which is instantiated in our website, supported all of the other parts,, and was a focus for communication and dissemination throughout the project. Each workpackage focused on a specific area of work, but each fed into its successors, and all leaders and partners worked closely together. Each group produced a number of technical reports and other outputs. The final output was a Roadmap for future investment in European child health research. This has been widely disseminated, and has fed at Commission level and National level into the Horizon 2020 call preparation process. RICHE Roadmap The RICHE Roadmap is based upon a sound, scientific evidence base, which we had gathered as part of our earlier work. The project prepared an inventory of child health research and of measurements and indicators of child health in Europe (WP1 and WP2) . This was collated using a web platform – which can be found at www.childhealthresearch.eu. In addition to this exercise, a formal study of the gaps in child health research was undertaken by carrying out surveys and interviews of researchers and research users across Europe (WP3). This allowed our initial views on the research gaps to be refined and corrected by an iterative process, involving, both project partners, and the wider scientific community, so seeking grounding and validation for this key phase. These results formed the basis for the RICHE Roadmap. The Roadmap is based on a life-course perspective. It covers the important phases of a child’s development, including maternal health, and pregnancy, through to adolescence and the protective and risk factors, and health services encountered throughout childhood and adolescence as he or she moves towards adulthood. RICHE looked upstream to identify where more work needed to be done to prevent avoidable physical and mental ill-health, disability and death in the population of European children aged 0-18 years. This shows how the many influences and outcomes of children’s health are interrelated; a pattern reflected in the Roadmap. The work necessarily involved a series of value judgements, especially on setting priorities, because there are no objective and unconditionally valid answers to the question “Is there enough research on this topic?”, nor to the question “Is this a topic of significance?”. Nevertheless, the RICHE Roadmap uses an inclusive and transparent process to explain the recommendations it made, and the subjects it chose, making our values, and the reasons for judgements as explicit as possible. The report is organised into broad subject areas, that reflect the key ‘gaps’ in knowledge about children and young people, or about particular aspects of their lifestyle and health. These key areas, and selected findings within each area, are briefly summarised here. Life Course and Lifestyle This section focuses on children as they age, and recognises the importance of continuing to research how factors before conception, during gestation and in the very early years of life can affect present and future health. The challenges that children face as they grow up are also highlighted – these can be created because of policy decisions that fail to take account of children and young people’s lives or because of the pervasive influences of individual circumstances that act ask protective or risk factors for children’s actions. The concept of resilience in childhood is also highlighted, and how research needs to focus on this important and powerful means of improving children’s lives. A key issue, throughout the life course, is mental health and well-being. Fostering well-being in children from birth, and throughout childhood will provide numerous individual and societal benefits. It deserves a greater research focus. Socio-economic and Cultural Factors The socio-economic and cultural environment in which a child is born and grows up has a potent effect on a child’s health and well-being. Inequity and inequalities in health, between and within nations depending on socio-economic circumstances, are known to affect health outcomes. Those in the poorest areas have worse health, and shorter lives than those in the wealthiest areas. Other groups are at risk of marginalisation from health services and from opportunities that can maximise their health. These include migrant children where the question is how best to support their integration into their new societies and communities, while retaining their individual identity; children in the state care system have poor health and social outcomes, so improving these, by focused research is important for the future health of these children; children from minority population groups, in particular those who travel across nations, such as the Roma, need to have focused attention, to ensure that their health outcomes begin to match those of the general European child population. Social and Community Networks The main influences on children and young people are their immediate family and community networks. This extends from the influence of the family as a warm and nurturing environment in which to grow up – and conversely a place of the most profound danger and threat if such a family environment is toxic; to the wider influence of school, and finally the broader community. Becoming engaged and involved in community life is beneficial for the entire population, not just for the children and young people directly involved. It is an aspect of children and young people’s experience that is important for well-being and social inclusion. Environment The term 'environment' covers several different concepts, and the RICHE Roadmap describes the physical, virtual and also the perceived environment – all of which interlink in children’s lives, and have a profound effect on their health and development. These include the physical environment, the virtual (digital) environment, physical safety, including injury prevention, and protection form crime, anti-social behaviour and violence (both as perpetrators and victims). Complex Health Issues The majority of children in Europe are healthy, and ill-health is not a characteristic of this population as it is in, for example, an ageing population. However, there are certain health issues that affect children, and as such can blight an entire lifetime. Our Roadmap does not cover clinical issues, but takes a population perspective. There are certain disorders that have a population-wide effect and are prevalent enough in the child population to warrant particular attention from a public health viewpoint. Four specific areas of concern were identified – overweight and obesity, mental health, sexual and reproductive health, and neuro-developmental disorders. Health Services The main research needs of the health services focuses on the prevention of poor health. Comparing health services across Europe and evaluating the means of conveying health promotion messages are important directions for health research to investigate. Indicators need developing which reflect the effect of preventive actions, particularly among younger children. Vulnerable populations, such as those in deprived communities, need to have health prevention services particularly targeted. There is little systematic evaluation of such interventions, which compromises the development of new interventions and their implementation. Those who do not access services and those who need particular attention can be identified. Public Health Infrastructure Health surveillance is essential so that health needs can be identified and addressed effectively for the benefit of the child population. Yet, many existing sources of data are neither analysed, nor made available in a child-centric way. Children need to be made more visible in the data so that they can have more effective health promotion and health care on a population level. Specific examples include work on autism and morbidity due to injury. Europe also needs to establish proper measures and indicators of children’s health and children’s lives. We cannot act properly without first identifying and measuring the problem. Electronic health records are an emerging technology that has great potential, both for research, and for improved access to care. They need to be developed and investigated further to encourage their use across the European Union. Improving Research Capacity It is necessary to ensure that there are enough resources, both to do research, and to make use of the research findings. To sustain research activity, specialist training for junior child health researchers is needed, as are sufficient resources to maintain a critical mass of researchers and provide attractive career paths for them. Children and young people as subjects of research need to continue to be safeguarded by a consistently ethical framework, and information collected about children needs to be accurate, comprehensive and used intelligently so that interventions and services can be correctly directed. Using the roadmap The roadmap is a complex document, addressed to a number of different stakeholders. One key group are those who make decision bout research finding priorities. We have disseminated the roadmap widely at EU level, to reach into the process of priority setting for Horizon 2020. This has been done thought National Contact Points in each partner country, through relevant NGO's, and by sending copes to and meeting with relevant parts of the European Commission. Readers using the roadmap will most likely use it in two ways, first to make a general case for investment in Child Health Research, and secondly to target that investment, by considering the questions we have identified, and reviewing our justifications for these choices. We do not expect our work to determine future investments in child health, but we are confident that using our work would lead to better decisions overall. Conclusions Our core value is to put children first in our work. We take the rights of the child seriously, and we are conscious that many children do not have the opportunity to exercise the right to health and healthcare that European children they ought to have. The topics in this Roadmap are pragmatic in that they are researchable (within the grasp of presently available research methods and resources) and that are likely to have a significant effect on the lives of European children. This will go a considerable distance in improving the health and well-being of European children who may not have benefited from Europe’s good fortune up until this point. At the very least, the RICHE Roadmap aims to begin a serious conversation across Europe about the need for research to focus on children and how this will ultimately benefit all members of the European population. There is a need for children to become substantially more visible in European society. At present many children’s lives are invisible to health surveillance and to research. Sometimes they are submerged with their families, as in the case of Roma or for children of illegal and undocumented immigrant families. Even in well-documented societies, children’s circumstances are invisible as data are collected from the perspective of economically active adults, or households. Therefore, an overarching recommendation in this road map is the establishment of a European Child Health Observatory with a simple remit to make European Children, and their lives, health and attainment of rights more visible. We also recommend continuing and extending the discussion to the edge of existing child health boundaries, to address topics such as the effects on children’s health of urban design and architecture, fiscal policy (which can affect many health issues), welfare, or health effects of immigration policy. The RICHE Roadmap hopes to point the way in which children can be fully recognised and respected as forming a valuable population and whose health and well-being contributes to the health of our present and future European society

Measurement of the Radiation Energy in the Radio Signal of Extensive Air Showers as a Universal Estimator of Cosmic-Ray Energy

We measure the energy emitted by extensive air showers in the form of radio emission in the frequency range from 30 to 80 MHz. Exploiting the accurate energy scale of the Pierre Auger Observatory, we obtain a radiation energy of 15.8 \pm 0.7 (stat) \pm 6.7 (sys) MeV for cosmic rays with an energy of 1 EeV arriving perpendicularly to a geomagnetic field of 0.24 G, scaling quadratically with the cosmic-ray energy. A comparison with predictions from state-of-the-art first-principle calculations shows agreement with our measurement. The radiation energy provides direct access to the calorimetric energy in the electromagnetic cascade of extensive air showers. Comparison with our result thus allows the direct calibration of any cosmic-ray radio detector against the well-established energy scale of the Pierre Auger Observatory.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DOI. Supplemental material in the ancillary file

Energy Estimation of Cosmic Rays with the Engineering Radio Array of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA) is part of the Pierre Auger Observatory and is used to detect the radio emission of cosmic-ray air showers. These observations are compared to the data of the surface detector stations of the Observatory, which provide well-calibrated information on the cosmic-ray energies and arrival directions. The response of the radio stations in the 30 to 80 MHz regime has been thoroughly calibrated to enable the reconstruction of the incoming electric field. For the latter, the energy deposit per area is determined from the radio pulses at each observer position and is interpolated using a two-dimensional function that takes into account signal asymmetries due to interference between the geomagnetic and charge-excess emission components. The spatial integral over the signal distribution gives a direct measurement of the energy transferred from the primary cosmic ray into radio emission in the AERA frequency range. We measure 15.8 MeV of radiation energy for a 1 EeV air shower arriving perpendicularly to the geomagnetic field. This radiation energy -- corrected for geometrical effects -- is used as a cosmic-ray energy estimator. Performing an absolute energy calibration against the surface-detector information, we observe that this radio-energy estimator scales quadratically with the cosmic-ray energy as expected for coherent emission. We find an energy resolution of the radio reconstruction of 22% for the data set and 17% for a high-quality subset containing only events with at least five radio stations with signal.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO