An Empirical Test of the Poverty Traps Hypothesis

This paper presents an empirical test of a subclass of poverty traps hypotheses. The test is based on the observation that the nonconvexities in the production function necessary to generate multiple equilibria need only be present in the region between the equilibria. Increasing returns should therefore be strongest when the economy is transitioning between steady states than when it is at or near one of those steady states. I implement this idea by estimating the degree of increasing returns during growth accelerations and growth collapses for a panel of developing and developed economies using UNIDO's Database of Industrial Statistics. I find no evidence of systematic differences in economies of scale between transition and non-transition episodes, shedding doubt on the idea that increasing returns in manufacturing generate poverty traps.

Cleaning Up the Kitchen Sink: Growth Empirics When the World Is Not Simple

This paper explores the relevance of unknown nonlinearities for growth empirics. Recent theoretical contributions and case-study evidence suggest that nonlinearities are pervasive in the growth process. I show that the postwar data provide strong evidence in favor of generalized non-linearities. I provide two alternative mechanisms for making inference about the effects of production-function shifters on growth that do not make a priori assumptions about functional form: monotonicity tests and average derivative estimation. The results of these tests point towards a greater role for structural variables and a smaller role for policy variables than the linear model.Economic Growth, Cross-Country Growth Regressions, Non-linearities, Non-parametric econometrics

An Empirical Test of the Poverty Traps Hypothesis

This paper presents an empirical test of a subclass of poverty traps hypotheses. The test is based on the observation that the nonconvexities in the production function necessary to generate multiple equilibria need only be present in the region between the equilibria. Increasing returns should therefore be strongest when the economy is transitioning between steady states than when it is at or near one of those steady states. I implement this idea by estimating the degree of increasing returns during growth accelerations and growth transitions for a panel of developing and developed economies using UNIDO's Database of Industrial Statistics. I find no evidence of systematic differences in economies of scale between transition and non-transition episodes, shedding doubt on the idea that increasing returns in manufacturing generate poverty traps. (...)An Empirical Test of the Poverty Traps Hypothesis

The Anarchy of Numbers: Understanding the Evidence on Venezuelan Economic Growth

This paper studies Venezuelan economic performance from 1950 to 1998. We show that there exist wide divergences in many commonly used estimates of GDP growth and discuss the sources of those differences. We show that the choice of base year and linking techniques are crucial for the diagnosis of economic growth, and argue that the aggregate GDP and TFP growth numbers are distorted by cuts in oil production that came about as a result of the country adopting the OPEC strategy of exploiting market power during the 1970s. We argue that non-oil growth and TFP numbers represent more adequate measures of economic performance and that, while far from satisfactory, these do not deviate significantly from those of other Latin American countries.Economic growth, National accounts, Growth accounting, Oil exporting economies, Latin America, Venezuela

How Not to Defend the Revolution: Mark Weisbrot and the Misinterpretation of Venezuelan Evidence

Mark Weisbrot (2008) has claimed that under the Chávez administration in Venezuela the share of pro-poor spending has increased, inequality has declined, poverty has fallen rapidly, and there has been a massive reduction in illiteracy. All of these conclusions are based on the use of heavily slanted data and on the misinterpretation of the existing empirical evidence. Weisbrot uses estimates of social spending that are upward biased by the inclusion of large infrastructure projects, debt refinancing, and even military spending; his inequality data is distorted by the inexplicable exclusion of households that received no income; his econometric estimates on illiteracy actually show the exact opposite of what he is arguing for. Weisbrot confuses basic economic concepts and offers a bizarre interpretation of events leading up to the 2002 currency crisis. Once one corrects for Weibrot’s biases, the evidence paints a consistent image of an administration that has not effectively prioritized the well-being of the Venezuelan poor.

Discourse Markers and Modal Expressions in Speakers with and without Asperger Syndrome: A Pragmatic-Perceptive Approach

From a theoretical point of view, this paper offers a new framework for the analysis of discourse markers: a pragmatic-perceptive model that emphasizes the point of the communication process in which such particles become more relevant. Furthermore, this approach tries to give an account of the modal expressions (attenuators and intensifiers) that speakers use in oral speech. The quotients of absolute and relative frequency with regard to the use of textual, interactive and enunciative markers - focused on the message, the addressee and the addresser respectively - are compared in two samples of 20 subjects with typical development and other 20 with Asperger syndrome. The general results of this research suggest that these latter speakers display a suitable command of textual markers, whereas they overexploit the enunciative ones in conversation

Comparison of 7 culture methods for Salmonella serovar Enteritidis and Salmonella serovar Typhimurium isolation in poultry feces

The present work compared 7 different culture methods and 3 selective-differential plating media for Salmonella ser. Enteritidis (SE) and S. Ser. Typhimurium (ST) isolation using artificially contaminated poultry feces. The sensitivity (Se) and accuracy (AC) values increased when Modified Semisolid Rappaport Vassiliadis (MSRV) methods were used in place of the Tetrathionate (TT) or Tetrathionate Hajna broth (TTH) method in the enrichment step. However, there was no significant difference between the pre-enrichment incubation at 4 to 6 and 18 to 24 h for MSRV5 and MSRV24 methods, respectively. All Salmonella strains were recovered in the lowest dilutions tested for MSRV24 and 3 out of 4 for MSRV5 methods (2 to 10 cfu/25 g). The TT and TTH methods showed a detection limit between 2.2 × 101 and 1.0 × 106 cfu/25 g of fecal sample. The agreement was variable between the methods. However, there was a very good agreement between the MSRV5 and MSRV24 methods, and between tetrathionate direct (TTD, no pre-enrichment media used) and buffered peptone water 18 to 24 h Tetrathionate broth combination (TT24 method) for Salmonella strains. The 3 selective-differential plating media showed an agreement between fair and excellent. They performed a high Se and AC in the MSRV methods for Salmonella strains. There was a significant difference between center and periphery for MSRV methods, and there was a fair agreement between them for all strains. The MSRV methods are better than TT/TTH methods for the isolation of different strains of SE and ST in poultry fecal samples. The MSRV5 method can be used to reduce the time for the detection of SE and ST in these samples. Furthermore, a loopful of the periphery of the growth should be streaked onto differential-selective plating media, even in the absence of halo, to decrease the number of false negative results.Fil: Rodríguez, Francisco Isabelino. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Entre Rios. Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Parana. Grupo D/genética, Mejoram. y Biotecnología Vegetal; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Entre Rios. Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Concepción del Uruguay. Laboratorio de Sanidad Aviar; ArgentinaFil: Procura, Francisco. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Entre Rios. Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Concepción del Uruguay. Laboratorio de Sanidad Aviar; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Entre Rios. Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Parana. Grupo D/genética, Mejoram. y Biotecnología Vegetal; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Bueno, Dante Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Entre Rios. Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Parana. Grupo D/genética, Mejoram. y Biotecnología Vegetal; Argentina. Universidad Autónoma de Entre Ríos; Argentin

Trade Policy and Factor Prices: An Empirical Strategy

This paper presents a new empirical strategy for estimating the effects of trade policy on domestic factor prices when policy endogeneity is suspected. Absent income effectson factor supplies or domestic prices, the coefficient on the terms of trade can provide an unbiased estimator of the effect of trade barriers on the factor distribution of income for a small economy. In the more general case where income effects are allowed for, we provide a means to quantify and control for the possible bias. We implement our strategy on a cross-national data set of trade policies and income shares of capital and labor. We find little evidence of the existence of Stolper-Samuelson effects, both for the sample as a whole as well as within cones of diversification. Consistent with a model of wage bargaining, we find that the effect of openness on capital shares is greater for countries with higher unionization rates.Factor prices, trade policy, Stolper-Samuelson theorem, wage bargaining