Quality as a function of quantity in electronic brainstorming

The quality of ideas a team generates constitutes an upper limit on the quality of the problem solving process. Much research has been done about causes of idea quantity and causes of idea quality. It has been noted by some researchers that idea quality appears to correlate with idea quantity, and several have argued that it is not necessary to go to expense and effort required to evaluate idea quality since it correlates with quantity. This paper draws on Team Theory to develop a causal link between quantity and quality. It then presents a low-cognitive-load, high-reliability method for evaluating idea quality. It reports on a study that addresses the question, “Will an increase in idea quantity cause more good ideas to be generated?”. The results support the hypothesis that there is a modest causal connection between quantity and quality, but the data suggest other factors are far more important for determining the number of good ideas a team generates. It concludes that researchers must continue to measure the effects of their brainstorming treatments on idea quality; it is not sufficient to assume that quality will always track quantity. Other factors not accounted for by the quality-quantity model may well counter and outweigh this effect.published_or_final_versio

Negotiation in strategy making teams : group support systems and the process of cognitive change

This paper reports on the use of a Group Support System (GSS) to explore at a micro level some of the processes manifested when a group is negotiating strategy-processes of social and psychological negotiation. It is based on data from a series of interventions with senior management teams of three operating companies comprising a multi-national organization, and with a joint meeting subsequently involving all of the previous participants. The meetings were concerned with negotiating a new strategy for the global organization. The research involved the analysis of detailed time series data logs that exist as a result of using a GSS that is a reflection of cognitive theory

Prediction of Ideas Number During a Brainstorming Session

International audienceIn this paper, we present an approach allowing the prediction of ideas number during a brainstorming session. This prediction is based on two dynamic models of brainstorming, the non-cognitive and the cognitive models proposed by Brown and Paulus (Small Group Res 27(1):91–114, 1996). These models describe for each participant, the evolution of ideas number over time, and are formalized by differential equations. Through solution functions of these models, we propose to calculate the number of ideas of each participant on any time intervals and thus in the future (called prediction). To be able to compute solution functions, it is necessary to determine the parameters of these models. In our approach, we use optimization model for model parameters calculation in which solution functions are approximated by numerical methods. We developed two generic optimization models, one based on Euler’s and the other on the fourth order Runge–Kutta’s numerical methods for the solving of differential equations, and we apply them to the non-cognitive and respectively to the cognitive models. Through some feasibility tests, we show the adequacy of the proposed approach to our prediction context

Cost-effectiveness of postural exercise therapy versus physiotherapy in computer screen-workers with early non-specific work-related upper limb disorders (WRULD); a randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Exercise therapies generate substantial costs in computer workers with non-specific work-related upper limb disorders (WRULD).</p> <p>Aims</p> <p>To study if postural exercise therapy is cost-effective compared to regular physiotherapy in screen-workers with early complaints, both from health care and societal perspective.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Prospective randomized trial including cost-effectiveness analysis; one year follow-up. Participants: Eighty-eight screen-workers with early non-specific WRULD; six drop-outs. Interventions: A ten week postural exercise program versus regular physiotherapy. Outcome measures: Effectiveness measures: Pain: visual analogous scale (VAS), self-perceived WRULD (yes/no). Functional outcome: Disabilities of Arm, Shoulder and Hand- Dutch Language Version (DASH-DLV). Quality of life outcome: EQ-5D.</p> <p>Economic measures: health care costs including patient and family costs and productivity costs resulting in societal costs. Cost-effectiveness measures: health care costs and societal costs related to the effectiveness measures. Outcome measures were assessed at baseline; three, six and twelve months after baseline.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At baseline both groups were comparable for baseline characteristics except scores on the Pain Catastrophizing Scale and comparable for costs. No significant differences between the groups concerning effectiveness at one year follow-up were found. Effectiveness scores slightly improved over time. After one year 55% of participants were free of complaints. After one year the postural exercise group had higher mean total health care costs, but lower productivity costs compared to the physiotherapy group. Mean societal costs after one year (therefore) were in favor of postural exercise therapy [- €622; 95% CI -2087; +590)]. After one year, only self- perceived WRULD seemed to result in acceptable cost-effectiveness of the postural exercise strategy over physiotherapy; however the probability of acceptable cost-effectiveness did not exceed 60%.</p> <p>Considering societal costs related to QALYs, postural exercise therapy had a probability of over 80% to be cost-effective over a wide range of cost-effectiveness ceiling ratios; however based on a marginal QALY-difference of 0.1 over a 12 month time frame.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although our trial failed to find significant differences in VAS, QALYs and ICERs based on VAS and QALYs at one-year follow-up, CEACs suggest that postural exercise therapy according to Mensendieck/Cesar has a higher probability of being cost-effective compared to regular physiotherapy; however further research is required.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ISRCTN 15872455</p

Temporal change in groundwater level following the 1999 (Mw = 7.5) Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan

We examine the post-seismic change in the groundwater level following the 1999 (Mw = 7.5) Chi-Chi earthquake in central Taiwan, as recorded by a network of 70 evenly distributed hydrological stations over a large alluvial fan near the epicenter. Four types of post-seismic responses may be distinguished: In type 1, the groundwater level declined exponentially with time following a coseismic rise. This was the most common response in the study area and occurred in unconsolidated sediments on the Choshui River fan. In type 2, the groundwater level rose exponentially with time following a coseismic fall. This occurred in the deformed and fractured sedimentary rocks in the foothills near the Chelungpu fault that ruptured in the Chi-Chi earthquake. In type 3, the groundwater level continued to decline with time following a coseismic fall. This also occurred in the deformed and fractured sedimentary rocks near the ruptured fault. Finally, in type 4, the groundwater level, following a coseismic rise, stayed at the same level or even rose with time before it eventually declined. This occurred mostly in unconsolidated sediments along the coast of central Taiwan and along the Peikang Stream. We analyze these post-seismic responses by using a one-dimensional model. Together with the results from well test, the analysis show that the type 1 response may be explained by an aquifer model with coseismic recharge and post-seismic subhorizontal discharge across a length of 500-5,000 m; the type 2 response may be explained by a model of coseismic discharge and post-seismic recharge from surface water; the type 3 response may be explained by a model of coseismic discharge and post-seismic subhorizontal discharge across a length of 500-5,000 m; and the type 4 response may be explained by a model of coseismic recharge and sustained post-seismic recharge from surface water. The characteristic time for the post-seismic changes is similar to that for the groundwater-level decline during dry seasons before the earthquake, suggesting that there was no earthquake-induced changes in the aquifer properties (i.e., hydraulic conductivity), confirming the earlier results from recession analyses of the post-seismic streamflow elsewhere after several earthquakes

High Connectivity in the Deepwater Snapper Pristipomoides filamentosus (Lutjanidae) across the Indo-Pacific with Isolation of the Hawaiian Archipelago

In the tropical Indo-Pacific, most phylogeographic studies have focused on the shallow-water taxa that inhabit reefs to approximately 30 m depth. Little is known about the large predatory fishes, primarily snappers (subfamily Etelinae) and groupers (subfamily Epinephelinae) that occur at 100–400 m. These long-lived, slow-growing species support fisheries across the Indo-Pacific, yet no comprehensive genetic surveys within this group have been conducted. Here we contribute the first range-wide survey of a deepwater Indo-Pacific snapper, Pristipomoides filamentosus, with special focus on Hawai'i. We applied mtDNA cytochrome b and 11 microsatellite loci to 26 samples (N = 1,222) collected across 17,000 km from Hawai'i to the western Indian Ocean. Results indicate that P. filamentosus is a highly dispersive species with low but significant population structure (mtDNA ΦST = 0.029, microsatellite FST = 0.029) due entirely to the isolation of Hawai'i. No population structure was detected across 14,000 km of the Indo-Pacific from Tonga in the Central Pacific to the Seychelles in the western Indian Ocean, a pattern rarely observed in reef species. Despite a long pelagic phase (60–180 days), interisland dispersal as adults, and extensive gene flow across the Indo-Pacific, P. filamentosus is unable to maintain population connectivity with Hawai'i. Coalescent analyses indicate that P. filamentosus may have colonized Hawai'i 26 K–52 K y ago against prevailing currents, with dispersal away from Hawai'i dominating migration estimates. P. filamentosus harbors low genetic diversity in Hawai'i, a common pattern in marine fishes, and our data indicate a single archipelago-wide stock. However, like the Hawaiian Grouper, Hyporthodus quernus, this snapper had several significant pairwise comparisons (FST) clustered around the middle of the archipelago (St. Rogatien, Brooks Banks, Gardner) indicating that this region may be isolated or (more likely) receives input from Johnston Atoll to the south

NICE : A Computational solution to close the gap from colour perception to colour categorization

The segmentation of visible electromagnetic radiation into chromatic categories by the human visual system has been extensively studied from a perceptual point of view, resulting in several colour appearance models. However, there is currently a void when it comes to relate these results to the physiological mechanisms that are known to shape the pre-cortical and cortical visual pathway. This work intends to begin to fill this void by proposing a new physiologically plausible model of colour categorization based on Neural Isoresponsive Colour Ellipsoids (NICE) in the cone-contrast space defined by the main directions of the visual signals entering the visual cortex. The model was adjusted to fit psychophysical measures that concentrate on the categorical boundaries and are consistent with the ellipsoidal isoresponse surfaces of visual cortical neurons. By revealing the shape of such categorical colour regions, our measures allow for a more precise and parsimonious description, connecting well-known early visual processing mechanisms to the less understood phenomenon of colour categorization. To test the feasibility of our method we applied it to exemplary images and a popular ground-truth chart obtaining labelling results that are better than those of current state-of-the-art algorithms

Global, regional, and national burden of low back pain, 1990–2020, its attributable risk factors, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Low back pain is highly prevalent and the main cause of years lived with disability (YLDs). We present the most up-to-date global, regional, and national data on prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. Methods: Population-based studies from 1980 to 2019 identified in a systematic review, international surveys, US medical claims data, and dataset contributions by collaborators were used to estimate the prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from 1990 to 2020, for 204 countries and territories. Low back pain was defined as pain between the 12th ribs and the gluteal folds that lasted a day or more; input data using alternative definitions were adjusted in a network meta-regression analysis. Nested Bayesian meta-regression models were used to estimate prevalence and YLDs by age, sex, year, and location. Prevalence was projected to 2050 by running a regression on prevalence rates using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying them by projected population estimates. Findings: In 2020, low back pain affected 619 million (95% uncertainty interval 554–694) people globally, with a projection of 843 million (759–933) prevalent cases by 2050. In 2020, the global age-standardised rate of YLDs was 832 per 100 000 (578–1070). Between 1990 and 2020, age-standardised rates of prevalence and YLDs decreased by 10·4% (10·9–10·0) and 10·5% (11·1–10·0), respectively. A total of 38·8% (28·7–47·0) of YLDs were attributed to occupational factors, smoking, and high BMI. Interpretation: Low back pain remains the leading cause of YLDs globally, and in 2020, there were more than half a billion prevalent cases of low back pain worldwide. While age-standardised rates have decreased modestly over the past three decades, it is projected that globally in 2050, more than 800 million people will have low back pain. Challenges persist in obtaining primary country-level data on low back pain, and there is an urgent need for more high-quality, primary, country-level data on both prevalence and severity distributions to improve accuracy and monitor change. Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation