Effect of Heterogeneous Mixing and Vaccination on the Dynamics of Anthelmintic Resistance: A Nested Model

Anthelmintic resistance is a major threat to current measures for helminth control in humans and animals. The introduction of anthelmintic vaccines, as a complement to or replacement for drug treatments, has been advocated as a preventive measure. Here, a computer-based simulation, tracking the dynamics of hosts, parasites and parasite-genes, shows that, depending on the degree of host-population mixing, the frequency of totally recessive autosomes associated with anthelmintic resistance can follow either a fast dynamical regime with a low equilibrium point or a slow dynamical regime with a high equilibrium point. For fully dominant autosomes, only one regime is predicted. The effectiveness of anthelminthic vaccines against resistance is shown to be strongly influenced by the underlying dynamics of resistant autosomes. Vaccines targeting adult parasites, by decreasing helminth fecundity or lifespan, are predicted to be more effective than vaccines targeting parasite larvae, by decreasing host susceptibility to infection, in reducing the spread of resistance. These results may inform new strategies to prevent, monitor and control the spread of anthelmintic resistance, including the development of viable anthelmintic vaccines

Interpreting malaria age-prevalence and incidence curves: a simulation study of the effects of different types of heterogeneity

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Individuals in a malaria endemic community differ from one another. Many of these differences, such as heterogeneities in transmission or treatment-seeking behaviour, affect malaria epidemiology. The different kinds of heterogeneity are likely to be correlated. Little is known about their impact on the shape of age-prevalence and incidence curves. In this study, the effects of heterogeneity in transmission, treatment-seeking and risk of co-morbidity were simulated. METHODS: Simple patterns of heterogeneity were incorporated into a comprehensive individual-based model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria epidemiology. The different types of heterogeneity were systematically simulated individually, and in independent and co-varying pairs. The effects on age-curves for parasite prevalence, uncomplicated and severe episodes, direct and indirect mortality and first-line treatments and hospital admissions were examined. RESULTS: Different heterogeneities affected different outcomes with large effects reserved for outcomes which are directly affected by the action of the heterogeneity rather than via feedback on acquired immunity or fever thresholds. Transmission heterogeneity affected the age-curves for all outcomes. The peak parasite prevalence was reduced and all age-incidence curves crossed those of the reference scenario with a lower incidence in younger children and higher in older age-groups. Heterogeneity in the probability of seeking treatment reduced the peak incidence of first-line treatment and hospital admissions. Heterogeneity in co-morbidity risk showed little overall effect, but high and low values cancelled out for outcomes directly affected by its action. Independently varying pairs of heterogeneities produced additive effects. More variable results were produced for co-varying heterogeneities, with striking differences compared to independent pairs for some outcomes which were affected by both heterogeneities individually. CONCLUSIONS: Different kinds of heterogeneity both have different effects and affect different outcomes. Patterns of co-variation are also important. Alongside the absolute levels of different factors affecting age-curves, patterns of heterogeneity should be considered when parameterizing or validating models, interpreting data and inferring from one outcome to anothe

Human Onchocerciasis:Modelling the Potential Long-term Consequences of a Vaccination Programme

<div><p>Background</p><p>Currently, the predominant onchocerciasis control strategy in Africa is annual mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. However, there is a consensus among the global health community, supported by mathematical modelling, that onchocerciasis in Africa will not be eliminated within proposed time frameworks in all endemic foci with only annual MDA, and novel and alternative strategies are urgently needed. Furthermore, use of MDA with ivermectin is already compromised in large areas of central Africa co-endemic with <i>Loa loa</i>, and there are areas where suboptimal or atypical responses to ivermectin have been documented. An onchocerciasis vaccine would be highly advantageous in these areas.</p><p>Methodology/Principal Findings</p><p>We used a previously developed onchocerciasis transmission model (EPIONCHO) to investigate the impact of vaccination in areas where loiasis and onchocerciasis are co-endemic and ivermectin is contraindicated. We also explore the potential influence of a vaccination programme on infection resurgence in areas where local elimination has been successfully achieved. Based on the age range included in the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI), the vaccine was assumed to target 1 to 5 year olds. Our modelling results indicate that the deployment of an onchocerciasis vaccine would have a beneficial impact in onchocerciasis–loiasis co-endemic areas, markedly reducing microfilarial load in the young (under 20 yr) age groups.</p><p>Conclusions/Significance</p><p>An onchocerciasis prophylactic vaccine would reduce the onchocerciasis disease burden in populations where ivermectin cannot be administered safely. Moreover, a vaccine could substantially decrease the chance of re-emergence of <i>Onchocerca volvulus</i> infection in areas where it is deemed that MDA with ivermectin can be stopped. Therefore, a vaccine would protect the substantial investments made by present and past onchocerciasis control programmes, decreasing the chance of disease recrudescence and offering an important additional tool to mitigate the potentially devastating impact of emerging ivermectin resistance.</p></div

The widening spectrum of C9ORF72-related disease; genotype/phenotype correlations and potential modifiers of clinical phenotype

The GGGGCC (G4C2) repeat expansion in C9ORF72 is the most common cause of familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), frontotemporal lobar dementia (FTLD) and ALS–FTLD, as well as contributing to sporadic forms of these diseases. Screening of large cohorts of ALS and FTLD cohorts has identified that C9ORF72-ALS is represented throughout the clinical spectrum of ALS phenotypes, though in comparison with other genetic subtypes, C9ORF72 carriers have a higher incidence of bulbar onset disease. In contrast, C9ORF72-FTLD is predominantly associated with behavioural variant FTD, which often presents with psychosis, most commonly in the form of hallucinations and delusions. However, C9ORF72 expansions are not restricted to these clinical phenotypes. There is a higher than expected incidence of parkinsonism in ALS patients with C9ORF72 expansions, and the G4C2 repeat has also been reported in other motor phenotypes, such as primary lateral sclerosis, progressive muscular atrophy, corticobasal syndrome and Huntington-like disorders. In addition, the expansion has been identified in non-motor phenotypes including Alzheimer’s disease and Lewy body dementia. It is not currently understood what is the basis of the clinical variation seen with the G4C2 repeat expansion. One potential explanation is repeat length. Sizing of the expansion by Southern blotting has established that there is somatic heterogeneity, with different expansion lengths in different tissues, even within the brain. To date, no correlation with expansion size and clinical phenotype has been established in ALS, whilst in FTLD only repeat size in the cerebellum was found to correlate with disease duration. Somatic heterogeneity suggests there is a degree of instability within the repeat and evidence of anticipation has been reported with reducing age of onset in subsequent generations. This variability/instability in expansion length, along with its interactions with environmental and genetic modifiers, such as TMEM106B, may be the basis of the differing clinical phenotypes arising from the mutation

The Spectrum of C9orf72-mediated Neurodegeneration and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

The discovery that a hexanucleotide repeat expansion in C9orf72 is the most numerous genetic variant of both amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and frontotemporal dementia has opened a rapidly growing field, which may provide long hoped for advances in the understanding and treatment of these devastating diseases. In this review we describe the various phenotypes, clinical and pathological, associated with expansion of C9orf72, which go beyond amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and frontotemporal dementia to include neurodegeneration more broadly. Next we take a step back and summarize the current understanding of the C9orf72 expansion and its protein products at a molecular level. Three mechanisms are prominent: toxicity mediated directly by RNA transcribed from the repeat; toxicity mediated by dipeptide repeat proteins translated from the repeat sequence; and haploinsufficiency resulting from reduced transcription of the C9orf72 exonic sequence. A series of exciting advances have recently described how dipeptide repeat proteins might interfere with the normal role of the nucleolus in maturation of RNA binding proteins and in production of ribosomes. Importantly, these mechanisms are unlikely to be mutually exclusive. We draw attention to the fact that clinical and pathological similarities to other genetic variants without a repeat expansion must not be overlooked in ascribing a pathogenic mechanism to C9orf72-disease. Finally, with a view to impact on patient care, we discuss current practice with respect to genetic screening in patients with and without a family history of disease, and the most promising developments towards therapy that have been reported to date