Entropies of Negative Incomes, Pareto-Distributed Loss, and Financial Crises

Health monitoring of world economy is an important issue, especially in a time of profound economic difficulty world-wide. The most important aspect of health monitoring is to accurately predict economic downturns. To gain insights into how economic crises develop, we present two metrics, positive and negative income entropy and distribution analysis, to analyze the collective “spatial” and temporal dynamics of companies in nine sectors of the world economy over a 19 year period from 1990–2008. These metrics provide accurate predictive skill with a very low false-positive rate in predicting downturns. The new metrics also provide evidence of phase transition-like behavior prior to the onset of recessions. Such a transition occurs when negative pretax incomes prior to or during economic recessions transition from a thin-tailed exponential distribution to the higher entropy Pareto distribution, and develop even heavier tails than those of the positive pretax incomes. These features propagate from the crisis initiating sector of the economy to other sectors

Contingency management to reduce methamphetamine use and sexual risk among men who have sex with men: a randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Methamphetamine use is associated with HIV acquisition and transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). Contingency management (CM), providing positive reinforcement for drug abstinence and withholding reinforcement when abstinence is not demonstrated, may facilitate reduced methamphetamine use and sexual risk. We compared CM as a stand-alone intervention to a minimal intervention control to assess the feasibility of conducting a larger, more definitive trial of CM; to define the frequency of behavioral outcomes to power such a trial; and, to compute preliminary estimates of CM's effectiveness.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We randomly assigned 127 MSM from Seattle, WA who use methamphetamine to receive a 12-week CM intervention (n = 70) or referral to community resources (n = 57).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Retention at 24 weeks was 84%. Comparing consecutive study visits, non-concordant UAI declined significantly in both study arms. During the intervention, CM and control participants were comparably likely to provide urine samples containing methamphetamine (adjusted relative risk [aRR] = 1.09; 95%CI: 0.71, 1.56) and to report non-concordant UAI (aRR = 0.80; 95%CI: 0.47, 1.35). However, during post-intervention follow-up, CM participants were somewhat more likely to provide urine samples containing methamphetamine than control participants (aRR = 1.21; 95%CI: 0.95, 1.54, <it>P </it>= 0.11). Compared to control participants, CM participants were significantly more likely to report weekly or more frequent methamphetamine use and use of more than eight quarters of methamphetamine during the intervention and post-intervention periods.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>While it is possible to enroll and retain MSM who use methamphetamine in a trial of CM conducted outside drug treatment, our data suggest that CM is not likely to have a large, sustained effect on methamphetamine use.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier <b>NCT01174654</b></p

Mapping Proprioception across a 2D Horizontal Workspace

Relatively few studies have been reported that document how proprioception varies across the workspace of the human arm. Here we examined proprioceptive function across a horizontal planar workspace, using a new method that avoids active movement and interactions with other sensory modalities. We systematically mapped both proprioceptive acuity (sensitivity to hand position change) and bias (perceived location of the hand), across a horizontal-plane 2D workspace. Proprioception of both the left and right arms was tested at nine workspace locations and in 2 orthogonal directions (left-right and forwards-backwards). Subjects made repeated judgments about the position of their hand with respect to a remembered proprioceptive reference position, while grasping the handle of a robotic linkage that passively moved their hand to each judgement location. To rule out the possibility that the memory component of the proprioceptive testing procedure may have influenced our results, we repeated the procedure in a second experiment using a persistent visual reference position. Both methods resulted in qualitatively similar findings. Proprioception is not uniform across the workspace. Acuity was greater for limb configurations in which the hand was closer to the body, and was greater in a forward-backward direction than in a left-right direction. A robust difference in proprioceptive bias was observed across both experiments. At all workspace locations, the left hand was perceived to be to the left of its actual position, and the right hand was perceived to be to the right of its actual position. Finally, bias was smaller for hand positions closer to the body. The results of this study provide a systematic map of proprioceptive acuity and bias across the workspace of the limb that may be used to augment computational models of sensory-motor control, and to inform clinical assessment of sensory function in patients with sensory-motor deficits

Altered sensory-weighting mechanisms is observed in adolescents with idiopathic scoliosis

BACKGROUND: Scoliosis is the most common type of spinal deformity. In North American children, adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) makes up about 90% of all cases of scoliosis. While its prevalence is about 2% to 3% in children aged between 10 to 16 years, girls are more at risk than boys for severe progression with a ratio of 3.6 to 1. The aim of the present study was to test the hypothesis that idiopathic scoliosis interferes with the mechanisms responsible for sensory-reweighting during balance control. METHODS: Eight scoliosis patients (seven female and one male; mean age: 16.4 years) and nine healthy adolescents (average age 16.5 years) participated in the experiment. Visual and ankle proprioceptive information was perturbed (eyes closed and/or tendon vibration) suddenly and then returned to normal (eyes open and/or no tendon vibration). An AMTI force platform was used to compute centre of pressure root mean squared velocity and sway density curve. RESULTS: For the control condition (eyes open and no tendon vibration), adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients had a greater centre of pressure root mean squared velocity (variability) than control participants. Reintegration of ankle proprioception, when vision was either available or removed, led to an increased centre of pressure velocity variability for the adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients whereas the control participants reduced their centre of pressure velocity variability. Moreover, in the absence of vision, adolescent idiopathic scoliosis exhibited an increased centre of pressure velocity variability when ankle proprioception was returned to normal (i.e. tendon vibration stopped). The analysis of the sway density plot suggests that adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients, during sensory reintegration, do not scale appropriately their balance control commands. CONCLUSION: Altogether, the present results demonstrate that idiopathic scoliosis adolescents have difficulty in reweighting sensory inputs following a brief period of sensory deprivation

Patterns of anti-malarial drug treatment among pregnant women in Uganda

BACKGROUND: Prompt use of an effective anti-malarial drug is essential for controlling malaria and its adverse effects in pregnancy. The World Health Organization recommends an artemisinin-based combination therapy as the first-line treatment of uncomplicated malaria in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy. The study objective was to determine the degree to which presumed episodes of uncomplicated symptomatic malaria in pregnancy were treated with a recommended anti-malarial regimen in a region of Uganda. METHODS: Utilizing a population-based random sample, we interviewed women living in Jinja, Uganda who had been pregnant in the past year. RESULTS: Self-reported malaria during the index pregnancy was reported among 67% (n = 334) of the 500 participants. Among the 637 self-reported episodes of malaria, an anti-malarial drug was used for treatment in 85% of the episodes. Use of a currently recommended treatment in the first trimester was uncommon (5.6%). A contraindicated anti-malarial drug (sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine and/or artemether-lumefantrine) was involved in 70% of first trimester episodes. Recommended anti-malarials were used according to the guidelines in only 30.1% of all second and third trimester episodes. CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported malaria was extremely common in this population and adherence to treatment guidelines for the management of malaria in pregnancy was poor. Use of artemether-lumefantrine combined with non-recommended anti-malarials was common practice. Overuse of anti-malarial drugs, especially ones that are no longer recommended, undermines malaria control efforts by fueling the spread of drug resistance and delaying appropriate treatment of non-malarial febrile illnesses. Improved diagnostic capacity is essential to ultimately improving the management of malaria-like symptoms during pregnancy and appropriate use of currently available anti-malarials

Transcriptome Profiling of Whole Blood Cells Identifies PLEK2 and C1QB in Human Melanoma

Developing analytical methodologies to identify biomarkers in easily accessible body fluids is highly valuable for the early diagnosis and management of cancer patients. Peripheral whole blood is a "nucleic acid-rich" and "inflammatory cell-rich" information reservoir and represents systemic processes altered by the presence of cancer cells.We conducted transcriptome profiling of whole blood cells from melanoma patients. To overcome challenges associated with blood-based transcriptome analysis, we used a PAXgene™ tube and NuGEN Ovation™ globin reduction system. The combined use of these systems in microarray resulted in the identification of 78 unique genes differentially expressed in the blood of melanoma patients. Of these, 68 genes were further analyzed by quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR using blood samples from 45 newly diagnosed melanoma patients (stage I to IV) and 50 healthy control individuals. Thirty-nine genes were verified to be differentially expressed in blood samples from melanoma patients. A stepwise logit analysis selected eighteen 2-gene signatures that distinguish melanoma from healthy controls. Of these, a 2-gene signature consisting of PLEK2 and C1QB led to the best result that correctly classified 93.3% melanoma patients and 90% healthy controls. Both genes were upregulated in blood samples of melanoma patients from all stages. Further analysis using blood fractionation showed that CD45(-) and CD45(+) populations were responsible for the altered expression levels of PLEK2 and C1QB, respectively.The current study provides the first analysis of whole blood-based transcriptome biomarkers for malignant melanoma. The expression of PLEK2, the strongest gene to classify melanoma patients, in CD45(-) subsets illustrates the importance of analyzing whole blood cells for biomarker studies. The study suggests that transcriptome profiling of blood cells could be used for both early detection of melanoma and monitoring of patients for residual disease

Primary biliary cirrhosis

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is an immune-mediated chronic cholestatic liver disease with a slowly progressive course. Without treatment, most patients eventually develop fibrosis and cirrhosis of the liver and may need liver transplantation in the late stage of disease. PBC primarily affects women (female preponderance 9–10:1) with a prevalence of up to 1 in 1,000 women over 40 years of age. Common symptoms of the disease are fatigue and pruritus, but most patients are asymptomatic at first presentation. The diagnosis is based on sustained elevation of serum markers of cholestasis, i.e., alkaline phosphatase and gamma-glutamyl transferase, and the presence of serum antimitochondrial antibodies directed against the E2 subunit of the pyruvate dehydrogenase complex. Histologically, PBC is characterized by florid bile duct lesions with damage to biliary epithelial cells, an often dense portal inflammatory infiltrate and progressive loss of small intrahepatic bile ducts. Although the insight into pathogenetic aspects of PBC has grown enormously during the recent decade and numerous genetic, environmental, and infectious factors have been disclosed which may contribute to the development of PBC, the precise pathogenesis remains enigmatic. Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) is currently the only FDA-approved medical treatment for PBC. When administered at adequate doses of 13–15 mg/kg/day, up to two out of three patients with PBC may have a normal life expectancy without additional therapeutic measures. The mode of action of UDCA is still under discussion, but stimulation of impaired hepatocellular and cholangiocellular secretion, detoxification of bile, and antiapoptotic effects may represent key mechanisms. One out of three patients does not adequately respond to UDCA therapy and may need additional medical therapy and/or liver transplantation. This review summarizes current knowledge on the clinical, diagnostic, pathogenetic, and therapeutic aspects of PBC

Augmenting Assessment with Learning Analytics

Learning analytics as currently deployed has tended to consist of large-scale analyses of available learning process data to provide descriptive or predictive insight into behaviours. What is sometimes missing in this analysis is a connection to human-interpretable, actionable, diagnostic information. To gain traction, learning analytics researchers should work within existing good practice particularly in assessment, where high quality assessments are designed to provide both student and educator with diagnostic or formative feedback. Such a model keeps the human in the analytics design and implementation loop, by supporting student, peer, tutor, and instructor sense-making of assessment data, while adding value from computational analyses

Expression of myeloperoxidase in acute myeloid leukemia blasts mirrors the distinct DNA methylation pattern involving the downregulation of DNA methyltransferase DNMT3B

Myeloperoxidase (MPO) has been associated with both a myeloid lineage commitment and favorable prognosis in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). DNA methyltransferase inhibitors (decitabine and zeburaline) induced MPO gene promoter demethylation and MPO gene transcription in AML cells with low MPO activity. Therefore, MPO gene transcription was directly and indirectly regulated by DNA methylation. A DNA methylation microarray subsequently revealed a distinct methylation pattern in 33 genes, including DNA methyltransferase 3 beta (DNMT3B), in CD34-positive cells obtained from AML patients with a high percentage of MPO-positive blasts. Based on the inverse relationship between the methylation status of DNMT3B and MPO, we found an inverse relationship between DNMT3B and MPO transcription levels in CD34-positive AML cells (P=0.0283). In addition, a distinct methylation pattern was observed in five genes related to myeloid differentiation or therapeutic sensitivity in CD34-positive cells from AML patients with a high percentage of MPO-positive blasts. Taken together, the results of the present study indicate that MPO may serve as an informative marker for identifying a distinct and crucial DNA methylation profile in CD34-positive AML cells